The World Cup's craziest prediction comes: Here's who's gonna be the winner

32 squads, just one winner! But how can you predict which nationals will raise the grand trophy on July 15th in Moscow?

Referring to statistics, confrontations, and the train followed in the past, BBC Sports has eliminated 31 teams and has come up with the prediction of who will be crowned world champion in about a month.

32 World's Participants

The heads of groups since 1998, when the finals were expanded by 32 teams, the tradition of determining the heads of groups has been established. There are total of eight groups, meaning eight teams that are deployed as heads of groups. The group heads' definition is done according to FIFA's ranking at the moment the lot is cast. Consequently, these teams are the main contenders to win the trophy, and that's what's happened, almost always. To see a winning team that was not a head of the group must be reached in 1986, when Maradona led Argentina with the help of God's “Hand to the great trophy. So in one move, 24 teams are removed and eight remain.

Organisers Russia benefits from 44-year tradition as an organising country and is positioned as head of one of the groups. If it weren't for this tradition, the 66th-ranked Russian team in FIFA ranking, would hardly have been a participant in this competition, no longer defined as a head group. In the world's first 11 cups, from 1930 to 1978, the host country has won five times, but since 1978 things have changed and France alone has managed to win a world as an organising country in 1998. It was almost impossible for the United States in 2004, Japan or South Korea, in 2002, or South Africa in 2010 to be proclaimed World Cup winners, but Italy in 1990, Germany in 2006 and Brazil in 2014 are concrete examples that the field factor in such competition has zero impact.

Defense in the age of 32 teams, none of the five declared champion teams have suffered more than four goals in the seven competition matches. Analyzing seven (after Russia's removal) teams that remain, we see that Poland has the worst defense. The Poles held 1.4 goals for matches during the qualifying phase. Germany and Portugal averaged at 0.4, Belgium and France 0.6, Brazil 0.11 and Argentina 0.88.

The European Cup of the World team has always traveled between Europe and Latin America. Before 2006, European nationals were not doing very well, but first Italy's success in Germany -- and then Spain and Germany recently -- has turned them into major favourites. Another given in favour of European teams is the fact that when the World Cup is held on their continent, they do not forgive. There's a total of 10 competitions organised at “Old Continent” and only Brazil in 1958 in Sweden has managed to build the cup, in the other 9 cases has been a team.

The winner must have the best goalkeeper to help win a trophy, but only twice since 1982 the World Cup has been won by the team that has had the best goalist, Brazil with Ronaldo in 2002 and Spain with David Silva in 2010. In fact, the trophy winner in four of the last five competitions has been sealed by goalkeepers and between Germany's Manuel Neur, France's Hugo Lyoris and Belgium's Thibaut Courtois, Portugal's Roui Patricio stands one notch below.

The experience of the proven trend since 1998 shows that the winner is always being declared the team that has the most experienced players in its bosom. In 1998, France had an average team of 22.77 players. In 2014, Germany had an average of 42.21 matches for players. There was a gradual increase between France and Germany. Brazil in 2002 had an average of 28.04, Italy in 2006 32.91 and Spain in 2010, 38.30 matches for players. Among the three remaining teams, France results in a lower average for players.