Russia's Growing Influence in the Western Balkans

Dodik openly wants Serbs to be separated from the rest of Bosnia and is sanctioned by the US for his policies. But he has proved to be an important ally of Moscow to undermine Western Balkan integration policies.

While Russian influence is the most visible in the Balkans, an increase in populism in Central Europe has also played in Moscow's hands, providing attractive political and political parties across the continent, including EU countries like Hungary, Austria and Chechia, broadcast news.

Pro-Russian forces also did well in another corner of Europe. In Latvia, a opposition party favoured by the country's large ethnic Russian minority received more votes in parliamentary elections.

Latvia's Russian minority is a large local political force that accounts for about 25 percent of its nearly 2 million people, a legacy of nearly 50 years of Soviet occupation that ended in 1991.

Dodik's victory in Bosnia further reinforced Moscow's point in the Western Balkans, as aiming to block any strategic decision if Putin says so.

Russia strongly opposes any Balkan state joining NATO. Western officials have voiced fears that Russia has used its historic Slavic and Orthodox ties in the region to undermine Western integration policies.

Sarajevo political analyst Adan Husic said Moscow's influence is also growing in parts of Europe that do not have these identity links.

What these countries have in common are “high nepotism, corruption”, closer to Western democracies is “by nature, very difficult for them”, he said.

Russia's strategic goal is not to assert authority over the Balkans, but “also to exploit the existing” tensions, the European Council for Foreign Relations said in a report.

With Russia's eyes, the EU's approach to the Western Balkans is neither serious nor systematic, and thus offers Moscow's ability to create influence”, the report added.

Russian allies in the Balkans have been actively planted in distrust in Western democracies, presenting Washington and Brussels as enemies who want to displace nations of their identity and national pride by promoting EU integration.

Dodik is a perfect example. To him, the West and NATO are enemies, while Russia is a respected friend for “brothers” Slavs.

Consumed in its problems, the euro debt crisis, migration or Britain's close EU departure for years has neglected the Balkans. Alarmed, some EU officials now fear that the Balkans could sink into renewed conflict, if not accepted soon by the 28-nation bloc.

“If such a European region, the complex gets an impression that we are not serious with the European perspective, we will experience sooner than we think, what we saw in the Balkans in the 90th”, European Commission President Jean-Clude Juncker said.

Such fears are not groundless. Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008, are on the rise, despite efforts by the EU to reach a stable agreement between the two former war enemies. Belgrade stepped up combat readiness of troops two weeks ago on the presence of Kosovo special police in its Serb-populated north.

In Macedonia, the US and the EU hope for a quick transition of an agreement between Macedonia and Greece to change Macedonia's name so that it can join NATO, a blow struck when a September 30th referendum on the name had low turnout.

US Defence Secretary Mattis saw Russian influence after several Macedonian and Greek protests against this move. “We don't want to see that Russia is doing what they have tried to do in many other countries”, it was expressed.

Russia has denied intervention in any Balkan or Baltic country. But Russia's strategy has found a fertile land among Serbs, due to NATO bombings in 1999 that halted a bloody blow of Serbs to Kosovo and forced Serbs to withdraw.

In exchange for Russia's support for Serbia's bid towards Kosovo, Serbia has been a loyal ally even though it formally pursues EU integration and uses millions in Western recovery funds.

Two Russian military intelligence operatives acted from Serbia to 2016, when they tried to organise a coup with neighbouring Montenegro to prevent the former Russian ally from entering NATO.