Germany does not change policy for the Balkans, but what happens with the EU next year

Officials, analysts and citizens from the region in recent days discuss possible consequences, following the withdrawal of the image, which has personally supported and committed itself to the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU.

“Kancerajala Merkel has not left the Chancellor's position, but has just announced she will leave the post of CDU chairman. This means that as long as the Chancellor is, I do not expect there to be any major change in German politics towards Southeast Europe and the EU's policy of enlargement”, German Institute for International Affairs and Security office director Dusan Reljic tells DW.

Analysts from Brussels who deal with the issue of enlargement in general and EU policy towards the Western Balkans agree with that assessment, that this German Chancellor's move will not change Germany's policy of integration of the region.

“There is a long-term continuation in German politics towards Southeast Europe, which has been achieved mainly through the enlargement policy in Brussels and through NATO. It is the only policy represented in the international context and there can be no quick changes in this direction”, Relijic explains for the DW.

German Marshall Fund says Germany's policy towards the Western Balkans is linked to stability and the economy and that this interest “will not change despite leadership in Berlin”.

Germany led by Angela Merkel began the process and then the “Berlin Plus” plan, in order to strengthen the region economically by creating opportunities for co-operation among Balkan states and strengthening ties with the EU. “Angela Merkel has personally led the EU enlargement policy at the time when the European Commission gave up the leadership of this process”, explains Rosa Balfour of the German Marshall Fund.

But Merkel's withdrawal is not the main Balkan problem...

There are other factors that could bring a new slowdown in the enlargement process. Challenges with new EU member states' governments and the rise of Great Britain from the European Union will slow the enlargement processes. Another key factor is elections for the new EU Commission, which will be held next year.

“should be stressed that the elections that will be held next year for the European Parliament and for the formation of the new EU Commission, as well as the appointment of the new commissioner for enlargement policy, are processes that could lead to some kind of slowdown and coherence of political processes involving Brussels and the European Commission”, says Dusan Reljik, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs Brussels office.

He adds that these are processes that can be discussed at this moment, and that it would probably be even irresponsible to predict, what could happen by 2021, when Angela Merkel would close the Chancellor's mandate.

What can Western Balkan countries expect from Berlin, while Angela Merkel is Chancellor?

Although Angela Merkel's mandate at the helm of Germany is until 2021, analysts have already started studying and analyzing all major German parties and the biographies of Merkel's potential followers and their policies towards EU enlargement. Dusan Reljiq for DW, however, insists that we can now seriously talk only about what is the “clearly ahead of us”, regarding German policy towards the Western Balkans.

The first “Picka is that Merkel does not believe in Serbia and Montenegro's possible EU accession in 2025. Countries' integrations will be set according to work in their countries, but not with a specific date from Brussels”, Reljic says.

The second point is the Berlin position over Aleksandar Vucinqi and Hashim Thaci's attempts. The German Chancellor has indicated that she is not inclined to support changing borders in the Balkans.

Now this question stands between Western allies, in my opinion the United States and several other Western partners have a tendency to examine these ideas more openly than in Berlin”, Reljiq points out.

Over speculation about the organisation of a possible meeting of the president of Serbia and Kosovo with EU leaders in Paris on November 11th, according to Dusan Reljiq there will be no “s time or space” for a discussion on the situation in Southeast Europe.