CIA Document: In 1993 US warned that Serbia aimed at ethnic cleansing of Kosovo, destabilizing Balkans

The 13-page document, titled "Greater Serbia: A Balkan Troublemaker for the 1990s", is prepared by the Intelligence Directorate, the Office for European Analysis, and is based on a joint analysis of the CIA, the US State Department, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the US Department of Defence.

A summary of the document said that Belgrade's determination to create a key <x0 Serbia-Great"was ethnically clean, while any more conciliatory stance of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and Bosnian Serbs in international negotiations was seen only as a tactical maneuver to gain time.

The CIA concluded that Serbia would not stop supporting the"Greater Serbia project"by force, unless the international community took strong measures, such as rigorous implementation of economic sanctions, political isolation, Bosnia and Croatia's armedness, the establishment of the detention zone and air strikes on Serbian military targets.

The analysis says that, without a strong international intervention, there was a high probability that a"Greater Serbia"would become a destabilising force in Europe by the middle of the decade. According to the document, after Belgrade consolidates power and territory, it would promote conflicts with neighbours, use force even outside its borders, begin ethnic cleansing of Kosovo, try to secure weapons of mass destruction and target expansion in non-Serb parts of Macedonia, Bosnia and Croatia's coast.

The document also estimates that the situation of the Kosovo Albanians would deteriorate within a year, as political balance in Serbia was increasingly leaning towards nationalist groups supporting Kosovo's ethnic cleansing.

According to the analysis, Milosevic, Serbian nationalists and the military were the main drivers of Serbian expansionist politics, while his departure from power would not necessarily change Belgrade's course, as the military and nationalist groups shared the same goals.

In chapter"A Greater Serbia at Any Price?", American experts estimated that democratic parties and independent media in Serbia had limited influence, while Milosevic, the Socialist Party of Serbia and Serbian nationalists in Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo, with silent support of the army, directed efforts to create a ethnically clean"Serbia".

According to the document, they were willing to meet very high costs so as not to give up this project.

The CIA also predicted that a"Greater Serbia"would follow an aggressive model similar to Iraq at the time, constantly causing tensions in the region.

The analysis warned that Belgrade would stir up trouble with neighbours, start Kosovo's ethnic cleansing, seek chemical weapons and systems for their use, use force outside its borders, and try to dominate Macedonia or take territories in Bosnia and Croatia.

A special part of the memorandum is dedicated to Kosovo. The analysis stresses that in Belgrade groups supporting the gathering of Albanians to specific areas and their administrative division from the territories reserved for Serbs were gaining weight.

The CIA warned that such an effort would provoke violent responses and would serve Serb extremists demanding an even more radical ethnic cleansing of Kosovo.

In conclusion, the document stresses that even in the event of Milosevic's departure from power, the military and nationalists would remain dominant factors in Serbia.

According to the CIA, a"Greater Serbia"even without Milosevic would continue to destabilise the region and support the creation of an ethnically clean state, while Kosovo Albanians could avoid deportation or ethnic cleansing only if his successor was politically weaker. /Telegraphy/