CNN: The future of oil prices may depend on China

While the US and Iran are working on how to permanently reopen Hormuz Strait and resume the flow of oil from the Middle East, the future market movement may depend on a country lacking in negotiations: China, writes CNN.
The world's second largest crude oil consultant, China, has taken all possible measures to store supplies, while the Iran War has cut access to more than 11 million barrels of oil a day. By lowering imports, relying on large reserves and using more clean energy, China has managed to ease the impact of higher prices within the country if not to eliminate it completely.
These actions have also felt on the global market.
After more than three months of fighting, some analysts predicted oil prices could rise by $200 per barrel this year. However, although total supply losses have exceeded 1 billion barrels of oil, crude oil prices have remained relatively contained. Many analysts view China as one of the main reasons.
“Kina has played a crucial role here to absorb this blow for the rest of Asia... amortizing the global economy”, said Daan Walter, director in the Amber think tank.
On Monday, oil Brant, the global standard of reference, fell below $78 per barrel due to expectations that the Hormuz Strait, through which a fifth of the world's oil is passed, could soon become normal trade function. Brant oil was traded under $70 per barrel in weeks before the US and Israel attacked Iran, while in early May it reached $14 per barrel, the highest level in four years.
With China's global impact on the energy sector increased, analysts say its policies and consumption patterns will be crucial to the market, no matter how fast Hormuz Strait reopens.
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In a research note earlier this month, Societe Generale analysts wrote that a 7% loss of global fuel supply from the 1973 Arab embargo resulted in a 134% increase in oil prices. But prices have not increased to almost any extent during the war in Iran, despite the impact of 14% of global supply.
They attribute this contradiction primarily to China as the invisible “that is rebalancing the” market, due to its ability to reduce oil imports by about 3 million barrels a day, an almost equal amount to Japan's total demand for crude oil.
China has been able to reduce consumption significantly for several reasons. Prior to the war, China was building reserves of crude oil, assisted by free oil shipments sanctioned by Russia and Iran, said Yaniv Shah, deputy head of oil markets at Rystad Energy.
Now it has more than 1 billion barrels of oil in the commercial and strategic reserves, which began to use in May, analysts said.
“Kina has placed a floor under the” prices, Shah said. “This year, that model has been overthrown”.
The government also limited exports of refined products such as diesel and gasoline to ensure domestic supply. This has discouraged Chinese oil refinerys, which face lower profit margins and are cut off from external markets to buy crude oil on the global market.
Meanwhile, China's electricity boom has offset the country's need for fossil fuels. About one in every two new passenger cars sold in China is now a new power vehicle. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, China's fleet of electric vehicles cut oil consumption by about 1 million barrels a day last year.
“has been a wonderful discharge valve for the global crude oil market”, said David Fishman, director at the Lantau Group specialising in China's energy and electricity sector.
While higher prices are likely to continue to curb demand by consumers and refinerys, China's ability to ease the global supply shock could be limited by the amount of fuel reserves it can carry, he said.
The thing that cannot continue forever is the crude oil reserves”, Fishman said. “If prices were reduced, you would expect the first thing they would do to start re-assuming”.











