Strategic Dialogue Serbia- The U.S.A.: What will be negotiated for?

This has been warned in recent months during meetings between Serbian and United States officials.

However, it has not been specified what this Strategic Dialogue would mean during US President Donald Trump's second term.

“Diplomatic reports between Serbia and the United States, which last more than 140 years, have passed the way from alliance to hostility”, recalled the Balkan Radio Europe Free Foreign Policy analyst Bosko Jaksic.

The Strategic Dialogue the US develops with dozens of countries of the world aimed at deepening co-operation includes a range of areas, from the economy, security to foreign policy.

It is certain that during the second mandate of the era leader, as the Trumpin Vuciqi called it, relations between Belgrade and Washington are progressing significantly towards a partnership that is bothering Europeans”, Jaksic notes.

“They think that Vuciq has sided in the heated conflict between transatlantic allies and is leaving Brussels”, he added.

Various positions for Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina from Belgrade, Washington
As key differences between Belgrade and Washington, Jaksic sees the position on regional issues in the Western Balkans.

If there is any strategic and political interest of Americans with Serbia, then it primarily concerns reducing tensions in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina”, Jaksic said.

While the US is one of Kosovo's main partners and was among the first states to recognise its independence in 2008, Serbia continues to reject the citizenship of its former province.

With tensions in reports between Kosovo and Serbia, dialogue on normalisation of reports mediated by the European Union remains blocked for two years.

The government in Serbia also supports Milorad Dodik, political leader from Bosnia's Republika Srpska entity who is under US sanctions, including, among other things, for the Secesionist aspirations in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The fact that the issues, undoubtedly sensitive, Bosnia and Kosovo are not an obstacle to starting Strategic Dialogue with Washington is good for Belgrade's” diplomatic position, Bosko Jaksic said.

“However, the way it will be discussed is totally uncertain”, he warned.

Considering that Trump likes to run, he will simply demand that everything be done his way, and then Vucciki can be found in a very difficult position”, Jaksic praised.

The effort to resolve disputes between Kosovo and Serbia was seen during Trump's first presidential mandate through the signing of the Washington Agreement in the presence of Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, and then Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti, at the White House.

The agreement, which focused on establishing economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, was almost not implemented.

In recent months, after returning to the White House, Trump has stated several times how president prevented “a new major war” Serbia was preparing to wage with Kosovo.

“We prevented because of trade. They wanted to trade with the United States. I said we don't trade with those who fight”, Trump said.

Official Belgrade has not reacted to Trump's statements.

However, Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani has confirmed Trump's statements, and authorities in Serbia have named it “false charges”.

With whom does the U.S. Strategic Dialogue develop?

The U.S. develops Strategic Dialogue with dozens of countries in the world, aimed at improving bilateral relations, according to the US State Department.

There are high-level talks in Washington or the partner country on a wide range of topics, such as defence, security, environment, energy and the economy.

According to data from the State Department page, recently the US developed Strategic Dialogue with France, the United Kingdom, Greece, Austria, Poland, Moldova, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Egypt and other countries.

Of the countries around Serbia, Strategic Dialogue with Washington has developed Romania and Slovenia, members of the European Union, as well as Northern Macedonia, the only state from the Western Balkans.

“

The latest announcement for Strategic Dialogue was made after the meeting of Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, September 23rd in New York.

But for the meeting itself, held in the Magnaries of the United Nations General Assembly, there is little information.

The US State Department announced briefly that Vuciq and Rubio have talked about “deepening partnership through bilateral Strategic Dialogue”, as well as US participation in the international EXPO exhibition, which Serbia will host in 2027.

Meanwhile, through a post at the Instagram, Vuciq said that with Rubyo there was a “dialog open and honest”.

He sent an invitation to US President Donald Trump to visit Serbia.

“No doubt Belgrade is thrilled by this perspective of the Strategic Dialogue with Americans”, Bosko Jaksic praised.

Trump's victory in the US elections and his return to the White House in January this year was met with enthusiasm in Belgrade.

“For Vuciqi, such a Trump is a more than welcome ally”, Jaksic praised.

The former US administration, led by the Democrats, had repeatedly criticised Vucicin as far as regional and domestic issues are concerned, as did the collapse of democratic institutions and corruption.

“This has proven that the authorities in Belgrade are no doubt easier with the Trump administration than with the Biden administration, when foreign policy is conducted under the motto of the anti-aucratic democracy. These values are not of interest to him, his foreign policy is a continuation of his business career, so the position takes profit, not democracy”, he added.

During the past year, close associates and members of Trump's family have remained in Belgrade, where meeting themes have been investments.

Construction of a luxury complex in Belgrade, at the site of the bombed General Staff building, is singled out as the main project. The private company that is interested in the project is owned by Trump's groom, Jared Kouchner.

Unlike Brussels, since some critical voices to the Vuciki regime have been heard in recent months, senior leaders in Washington have not commented on massive antigovernmental protests in Serbia.

There are no official reactions from the White House and the State Department, while hundreds of thousands of demonstrators on Serbia's streets for more than ten months are seeking responsibility from authorities for the deaths of 16 people in the Novi Sad accident.

High US tariffs, sanctions against NIS

In early August, high tariffs went into effect, which Donald Trump's administration imposed on imported goods from several countries.

The question of why the Trump put such high tariffs on Serbia, which are among the highest in the world and Europe, and by higher margin in the Western Balkans”, Jaksic stressed.

The 35% tariff, which the US decided on goods from Serbia, is the second largest among European states, after Switzerland.

After setting tariffs, authorities in Belgrade have stressed that they cause major problems because of attracting foreign investments.

Even though after meeting with Rubyo, Vucic said that “the issue of tariffs was in focus”, the results of that conversation so far are unknown.

Bilateral relations between the two states are also burdened by sanctions Washington imposed in January on the Serbia Oil Industry (NIS), which is mostly Russian-owned.

NIS managed to postpone the implementation of sanctions several times, but Vuciq announced on September 25th that they would take effect on October 1st.

“We have been extremely correct with Russian partners and American partners, and we will try to continue to be correct, but people must know that we will have to pay an extremely high price”, Vuciq told reporters in New York on 25 September.

Sanctions on Oil Industry have been imposed due to so-called <x0 secondary risk>” due to links to Russian Gazprom Neft, which is under Western sanctions due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

After imposing sanctions, Vuciq had declared that Russia's full “credit from the ownership of NIS” would be required, which would require a transformation of the property structure.

Despite calls to impose sanctions on the Kremlin following the start of Ukraine's invasion in February 2022, authorities in Serbia continue close co-operation with Russia.

And as Washington warns Strategic Dialogue, Belgrade has close reports with the US rival China.

The leaders of Serbia and China describe these relations as “iron friendship”, which despite criticism from the West, is developed mainly through infrastructure projects.

“Vucciq will continue playing like this until he gets what he wants”, Jaksic said.

However, he stressed that Vuciqi's close ties with the East at the moment pose no obstacle to relations with Washington.

This is completely typical of Trump's business approach to diplomacy”, the foreign policy analyst said.

Kosovo's Planned Strategic Dialogue Consumption

The launch of Strategic Dialogue between Serbia and the US has been warned since August of this year.

According to American officials, it will soon launch “ ”, but the State Department has not specified the exact deadline.

As described, it is expected to bring a new <x0-year era to” in bilateral relations: revive political ties, enhance trade and military co-operation, as well as co-operation in the field of energy and communication technologies.

Last September, Serbia has signed its first strategic agreement with the US in the field of energy.

Before the trip to New York, Vuciq estimated that it is a key “signal, the fact that Americans want to develop Strategic Dialogue.

However, he stressed that Serbia has a somewhat narrower “path in this process than other countries.

As underlined, Serbia, as a military, neutral state, will not enter the NATO alliance, where the US is one of the leaders.

Also, Vuciq stressed that the two countries “are not and will not be” in reconciliation on all issues, separating relations with Kosovo as the main difference.

While warning of the launch of Strategic Dialogue with Serbia, the Trump administration has decided to temporarily suspend the planned Strategic Dialogue with Kosovo.

Washington announced that the decision was made because of the Kosovo government's acting actions, which it said have raised tensions and instability in the country.

The greatest error Belgrade can do is to rejoice at this, thinking Trump is turning against Pristina”, Jaksic said.

These US tactical steps must be followed very carefully, because they are not guarantees that Vuciq, despite praise for Trump from Belgrade, has become Washington's favorite overnight”, he added.

The US has not detailed what concrete steps have led to the suspension of the planned Strategic Dialogue with Kosovo.

Albin Kurti's incumbent government has often been the target of criticism by the international community over the past four years, mainly for actions in northern Kosovo populated by Serb majority, where it tries to extend full control.

Also, the US decision came at a time when Kosovo is facing an institutional and political crisis, as the country has not yet formed the new executive after the February elections.

The Constitutional Court has imposed temporary measures until September 30th, preventing MPs from taking action and conducting any procedures for forming Kosovo's new government.

Kurti has accused the Constitutional Court of bias, claiming it is close to Albanian parties that the previous mandate was in opposition.

The Constitutional and the international community dismissed those claims by Kurti and the international community, these statements were assessed as pressure by Kurti and his party, the Vetevendosje Movement, on the country's highest court. / REL