Balkans amid NATO's fears, missiles from the East

Military modernisation in the Western Balkans is not simply a matter of equipment. It reflects the race among great powers of influence.

Serbia maneuvers with weapons from the West, China, Russia, while its neighbours remain largely equipped with Western technology.

Albania's former defence minister, Fatmir Mediu, says this combination has long turned the Balkans into a miniature of global rivalry. And the consequences of this position extend beyond the field of protection.

“... because safety today is not just a matter of protection. Security is an infrastructure, technology, political, economic and military issue. In view of these, the reports Serbia has created [with Russia and China] are the subject of little concern”, says Mediu of the Free Radio Expos programme.

The harmonisation of military modernisation with declared Euro-Atlantic goals remains a controversial issue also for Nikola Lulunij, consultant in Belgrade on geopolitical and security issues.

The “would be expected if all countries intended to membership one day in NATO and, of course, in the European Union, European security structure was fully compatible. That means military purchases are coordinated. But this, normally, doesn't happen in our region, because of our unfinished history and often nationalist and aggressive narrators”, Lounic says.

Of the six Western Balkan countries, Albania, Montenegro and Northern Macedonia are NATO members; Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina aspire to membership, while Serbia is militarily neutral, is part of NATO's “Partnerity for peace” programme.

NATO member states, in principle, have designed or adapted weapons that are interoperable. This means that the devices should speak the same “ ” technology.

In the Ministry of Defence, Kosovo's Defence confirm that “all weapons bought by Kosovo in the past four years are according to NATO standards. Mostly, there are weapons purchased by the United States, Turkey, Germany, and”.

spokeswoman Liridona Gashi does not reveal how much has been spent this year on weapons, but stresses that this government has invested “multiple times the past.

This month, the Kosovo Security Force, which is in the process of becoming a full-fledged army, has acknowledged fears bought by the United States .C.-20 Puma LE model.

The KSF is constantly trained on American and European bases and also participates in multinational exhumations, such as “Defender Europe”.

At the end of last year, Kosovo has also made an agreement with Turkey on the construction of the first ammunition factory. Gashi, from the Defence Ministry, says the expectations are for it to function “within two years”. While, for the military co-operation declared in March between Kosovo, Albania and Croatia, it says currently “is compiled the joint plan of activities”.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's Armed Forces are on the line with NATO. Under the announced annual plan, they will participate in 17 exercises this year, through co-operation with NATO, regional initiatives and bilateral agreements in the field of defence.

From customs data in this country seems to export weapons mainly to Western and Middle Eastern states, while importing mainly from neighbouring countries and beyond.

What stands out in the region is Serbia. Participation in the “Partnership for Peace programme” enables limited co-operation with NATO, but interactions with China and Russia put it out of the model of its neighbours.

Until the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Serbia relied mainly on Russian weapons, while after geopolitical changes, it turned to China, from which it bought, among other things, fears of fighter and missile systems.

Last July, Serbian Army Special Forces held their first joint military exercise from China, in the province of Hebei, despite EU warnings, where Serbia intends to join.

Last week, Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, was at a summit in China and warned new arms purchases from the communist state.

“Today, China is the largest investor in Serbia, as the only country with 7.2 billion euros. This year, the People's Republic of China and Serbia will have around 8.5 billion euros in trade exchange”, Vuciq said.

According to the International Institute for Peace Research in Stockholm (SIPRI), Serbia has made the biggest military spending in the Western Balkan region over the past five years, buying weapons both from the West and from the East.

In 2024 alone, it allocated $2.2 billion to the army about five times more than Albania, which is a NATO member. Kosovo divided about 162 million, compared to 90 million divided in 2020.

For Mediu, such imbalance in military investments raises “red flame”.

Serbia's “Serbia is seeing its policies in Bosnia and Herzegovina and specifically in Kosovo has never given up on claims to protect, as she says, the Serb population. It's the same narrator Russia has used [for the invasion of Ukraine]. So, it sʹka to give up dominance in the Balkan region”, Mediu says.

As a rationale for the arming of Serbia, Vuciq often mentions <x0 threats from neighbourhood”, without specifying from which. “

This rhetoric is for domestic use. But his efforts to balance among all, including China and Russia, can at some point turn boomerang.

“If the current geopolitical crisis passes through, then Serbia itself would be in a very sensitive situation, where no one would accept its neutral status. In such a situation, all would perceive Serbia as an incredible partner”, Llyunic estimates.

Free Europe Radio has demanded comments from both NATO and the EU for Serbia's ever-initiated orientation, but has not received answers from any institution.

Former official of NATO, Jamie Shea, says China wants points of support in Europe and Serbia, with its economic needs and with its constant fluctuations between East and West, is an attractive partner.

The Shea does not rule out the possibility that Vuciq, due to internal unrest and regional tensions, will pursue a more confrontational approach even to neighbours.

He says NATO should be closely monitoring security developments, especially along borders and in areas prone to unrest, and ready to react quickly if tensions escalate.

“I think it is important now that NATO has a special envoy to the region, who would work together with EU and US representatives”, says Shea for Expose.

For Kosovo, Serbia remains the main threat to security and stability. Two years ago, armed Serb groups attacked the Kosovo Police in Banjska, killing a policeman. Belgrade denied involvement, but Kosovo authorities said they have evidence linking it directly to the attack.

According to Professor Fidair Berisha, from the Kosovo Academy for Public Security, Serbia cannot give up territorial claims on Kosovo.

We need strong international co-operation, especially with the five QUINT countries. The strongest guarantee is Kosovo's NATO membership and a sincere and deeper co-operation with the United States of America”, he says.

Kosovo's path towards NATO is still long, since four coalition countries do not recognise its citizenship. And more than that, as commentators estimate, the Western Balkans have gone down to the list of Western priorities past from war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East.

Mediu suggests establishing joint military capacities.

“The only way to cope with this kind of political aggression of Serbia in co-operation with China and Russia is to build three important elements: a military deployment of NATO countries in the Balkan region, a political detector for a joint analysis of security issues and an economic transparency. These are linked to each other”, the former Albanian defence minister says.

Referring to the experience of Baltic countries, he values the initiative of Albania, Kosovo and Croatia for defence co-operation, in hopes that it will be raised to a more advanced level.

Serbia, in turn, has strongly opposed him, warning that it will not accept unilateral actions that, according to her, violate territorial integrity.

Shea, known as the voice of NATO during the 1999 war in Kosovo concludes with an essential message: no one should be allowed to be taken by surprise. According to him, Napoleon the Great's philosophy sums up this principle simply: “can be forgiven if you lose a battle, but not if you are caught unprepared”. / REL/ Periscopi/