Trump and Putin ahead of the Alaska summit and tensions for Ukraine, is the game changing?

But prior to this meeting, Trump has shown growing frustration toward his Russian counterpart.

According to sources from the US administration and European diplomatic sources, Trump has begun to ask his advisers and European leaders about what has changed to Putin, signalling a visible disappointment about Russia's stance on ceasefire proposals. Russia, on the contrary, has intensified its offensive against Ukraine this year and has given no concrete evidence to stop the war.

For the American intelligence community, Putin's intentions remain unchanged and dangerous. It follows to require guarantees that Ukraine never join NATO and that international peacekeepers not enter Ukrainian territory. In the latest analysis, officials estimate that any ceasefire offered by Russia could only serve to regroup Russian troops with the aim of new attacks in the future, possibly against Kiev.

A source familiar with intelligence reports stated: “Putin thinks it is winning, so there is no reason to back down.” It seeks to consolidate the victories it has achieved and prepare for the next phase of the war.

Unlike his stay during his first term, where he called Putin a good friend and expressed sympathy for his authoritarian style, Trump now appears to be treating the Russian leader more carefully. In private conversations, he has used a harsher tone towards Putin and has shown concerns about the Kremlin's approach. Even his special envoy for Russia, Steve Witkoff, has openly expressed disappointment with the negotiations, claiming that the “rus are manipulating”.

Trump warned this week that if you realise Putin is not serious about ending the war, “will have serious consequences for Russia”. However, he did not clarify what these punitive measures would include.

Zelensky, Europe concerned about unilateral agreement

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly warned that Trump's meeting with Putin without the presence of Ukraine risks being described as a victory for Moscow. According to him, Putin is not preparing for a genuine ceasefire, but only to strengthen his position.

European officials are also divided. Some hope that Trump, due to his direct style, can reach an effective agreement. Others are deeply concerned that he could sign an agreement favouring Russian interests, acknowledging the Kremlin's control over occupied territories in Ukraine in exchange for a temporary fighting ban.

A European diplomat told CNN that “Russia is offering to stop the war only if it takes everything it's always wanted this is not peace, it's surrender. ”

Is Putin the same? Is Trump different?

An important debate within the White House relates to whether Putin has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, when he spent long periods in isolation and surrounded himself with people supporting his hard line. Many analysts believe loneliness during the pandemic made it more closed and more paranoid.

On the other hand, some officials believe that real change has taken place in Trump. The “at the beginning of the year was naive, but now he has realized Putin is a dangerous leader”, an American official said.

The long-awaited summit in Alaska has turned into a key moment not only for the war in Ukraine, but also for the way the US of Trump will deal with relations with Russia in the years ahead.

Zelensky has made it clear that any agreement that does not involve Ukraine is unacceptable. Meanwhile, analysts warn Putin is not a leader with whom simple agreements can be made, he has ideological ambitions going beyond territories.

The summit could bring a step towards peace or deepen the division between the West and Ukraine if perceived as a concession for Moscow./Periscopi/