Why the map of the Oval Office played a crucial role in Trump's view of war in Ukraine

“I suppose you've all seen the map. A large part of the territory has been taken, and that territory has taken”, Trump Fox told News on Tuesday.

The message from the White House to Ukraine is clear: That land is lost and it is time to consider a territorial compromise with Vladimir Putin, or as some call territorial exchanges. Zelensky's team had brought its map to the meeting, and the Ukrainian leader said afterwards that during his conversation with Trump he had “fought with what was on that map”, discussing “who controls what, not according to gossip, but in reality”.

Although he felt that he had taken some steps to correct the wrong impressions, until Tuesday Trump kept the same view. It was clear, he said, that Russian forces are “so clearly much more powerful and it's not that they have stopped”. When asked about the feelings of European leaders regarding territorial exchanges, he said: “Now it's about Donbas, but Donbas is... 79% owned and controlled by Russia”.

Before the eastern war began in 2014, the rich mining region of Donbas represented about 16% of Ukraine's economic output. Putin has reportedly told Trump that he wants to take the entire Donba region as part of a broad peace agreement, which would spare the Russian leader a considerable amount of blood and wealth.

Zelensky also argued on percentages on the White House map showing Russian control in several Ukrainian regions, ranging from 99% in Luhansk and 76% in Donnetsk in Donbassk; 73% in Zaporisizhja and Kherson in the southeast; 4% in Kharkiv in the northeast; and 1% in Sumy and Mykolaiv. Recent data analysis by the US Institute of War shows similar figures and any change can come from various methodologies, especially the degree of Russian control in a area.

In regions where the White House suggests 1% of the territory is under Russian control, this may indicate only a limited presence, such as in Mykolaiv in the south, or areas where Russians are mainly expelled, as in Sumy in the north. Whatever the real figure for Russian control in Donnetsk, the Kramatorsk and Slovyansk fortress cities in the Donnetsk region remain home for large populations. Local officials say about 242 thousand people live in Ukraine's areas controlled by Donnetsk, and no Ukrainian leaders would consider handing over its territory to Moscow.

Although Russian forces have made progress in recent months, the War Institute estimates that taking the rest of the Donetsk region would take Russian forces several years after some difficult campaigns. Zelensky said the Ukrainian map that Trump showed shows that over the last thousand days, Russia had managed to invade less than 1% of Ukraine's territory. Analysts from the Ukrainian group DeepStateUA say this translates to 5,842 km2km2 since November 2022.

As Russia achieved operational success in the first days of its full occupation, a large part of the occupied territory was later released. However, Russia has made irrefutable advances over the past two to three months, even though the front line has changed slightly since the first months of the war.

Defence analyst Konrad Muzyka, who leads Rochan Consulting, says Russian progress has been significantly accelerated in some areas of birth, around Kupiansk in Kharkiv region and Kreminna in Luhansk.

“We are seeing many more fires, and Ukrainians are unable to send enough firefighters to shut down”, he told the BBC. It cites the absence of the Ukrainian workforce to protect a long front line, but also the increased use of fears from Russia to strike soldiers, equipment, and especially artillery.

Meanwhile, Russia has managed to recruit 30-35 thousand soldiers, and even with large losses suffered, it has been able to build large operational and strategic reserves. However, rapid advances in limited birth zones have not been widely repeated across the front. A Russian attempt to land 1015km within Ukraine's controlled territory near Dobropilia in Donetsk was successfully rejected by Ukrainian forces last week.

Although Russia controls several pockets of land in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, Ukraine still has control over some 6,600 km2 of Donbas. Putin has not only claims on large parts of Ukraine; he has already annexed four regions and the Crimea, even though many areas remain out of control. A British intelligence update estimates that based on only “gradual progress in the battlefield so far to 2025,” would take another 4.4 years just to get four Luhansk regions, Donnetsk, Zaporizija and Kherson.

This itself explains the different prospects of Trump and Zelensky when it comes to maps showing the 1,200km front line in Ukraine.

“Thank you for the map, by the way, it was excellent,” told Zelensky, regardless of differences, “I'm thinking about how to restore”. /Periscopi/