Migration, decline of fertility problem, how Albania is aging

Emigration and declining fertility over the years are key factors affecting Albania's aging workforce and deepening the gap in businesses for non-compliance.

Fenomen is global. The Economist” magazine, recently in a writing, analyzed the causes of increasing population aging from a drop in fertility.

By 2050, a 340 million population drop in working age groups from 15 to 64 is forecast. The decline will extend to countries of continents America, Europe, including major Asian countries, such as China, Japan, and South Korea.

Except for the aging phenomenon of the workforce, only the states of sub-Saharne Africa, where birth birthrates were very low and the arrival of demographic transition is still decades away. But how has the number of working age populations changed in Albania in the past decade?

Of the results of the 2023 Population Cence, it proved that the working age population in Albania had undergone deep contractions compared to 2011. The total number of working - age people from 1,903,987 in 2011 reached 1,555,080 in 2023, which represents a decrease of about 349 thousand, or 18.3%.

The decline in the number of working age populations is higher than the contraction of the total population of nearly 14% that resulted in Cesen 2023 compared to the 2011 Censi results. Reference to data is found to reduce the number of working-age populations is more pronounced in new age groups from 15 to 29.

For the first age group, from 15 to 19 years of age, it turns out that the decline is 46.8% compared to the consensus results 2011.

For the age of 20 to 24, the decline is 41.2%. While for the age group from 25 to 29, the contraction is 24.9%.

The decline in the number of working age populations in young age groups, according to experts, was estimated to have come from massive youth migration and a decline in fertility in the last decade.

While older age groups between 55 and 64 have an increase in working age populations.

The highest growth is for the age group from 60 to 64. The increase is 48.8%. For the age group from 55 to 64 (the age group near retirement age), the number of working age populations has increased by 9.6%. According to experts, this increase shows aging of the active population, not because there is more birth, but because those who have been young in 2011 have now passed through these age groups.

INSTAT's data on the level of participation in labour forces in Albania in the period 2019%2024 shows a tendency to age the workforce.

The most active group in the labour market remains the one aged 25-54, with high turnout rates up and up, from 83.2% to the first quarter of 2019, reached 87.6% at the end of 2024.

At the same time, the participation of the 55-64 age group has significantly increased from 62.9% to 2019 to over 75% in 2024, witnessing an increasing presence of older employees in the labour market. Meanwhile, young people (15-24) continue to have low and unstable turnouts, which range from 32 to 40%.

This tells of the difficulty of this age group to integrate into the job market, which can be linked to education, unemployment, migration, or the lack of adequate opportunities for this category.

An interesting development is the increase in participation even in the age group over 65, where 2024 levels are reached in the first two quarters of 2024, a significant increase compared to about 14-16% in the 1920 ' s.2020.

In addition, the 20-64-year-old group has shown steady growth, reaching over 81% turnout at the end of 2024, confirming a general tendency to expand the engagement of the working-age population. Monotor/Perscopi/