Applebaum: West does not understand Putinism

Deutsche Welle: Why is American President Donald Trump so patient with Vladimir Putin? They've known each other for a long time. Why has Trump been so kind to Putin so far? How do you explain it?

Anne Applebaum: People have asked themselves that question for a decade now. There was a major investigation during the first presidency of Trump, about Russian sources of influence in his election campaign. The investigation showed it had impact, but could not prove there was criminal involvement. We know Trump has had Russian connections for over 30 years. Russian investment has been in his businesses. And that's not conspiracy theory. This is proven. We also know that he has had positive thoughts about Russia. And we know he's had negative thoughts about the United States alliances for a long time. It's in his history for over a decade.

Since coming to power, Trump is very impressed by people who function without control and balance, without restrictions, without courts, without journalists. He admires that kind of power. My conviction is that he has positive access to the Russians and is personally impressed by Putin. Of course I don't know what personal interaction they have with each other, but Putin is an officer prepared by KGB. He knows how to reveal someone's weaknesses, and how to find the way to manipulate someone and convince that person to believe they're friends. And I think this is when Trump believes Putin is his friend and he said that, used that word.

What are Putin's final goals in Ukraine? How do you view his strategy?

Absolutely, Putin has a strategy and he has three goals, which overlap. The main purpose is that imperial purpose. He wants to revive the Russian Empire and lead it himself. And that would be his historic role. And in order to achieve that goal, he would like to see Ukraine with a <x0... doll-governing” or entirely parts of Russia, in order to erase “Ukraine”. He wants Ukraine to stop existing as a nation and to become part, in one form or another, as part of the Russian Empire. His original plan was to invade Kiev within three days and the rest of the country within six weeks. But the plan failed. Now he's implementing plan B, which is to undermine and destroy Ukraine as much as possible. So that's his primary purpose.

The second goal is to destroy the ideas that led to the Ukrainian Revolution in 2014, which he faced during the Maydan demonstrations. At the time, people waved EU flags, held anti-corruption banners and called for the departure of the country's Ottoman president, who was leading Ukraine towards Russia. When the revolution succeeded, in other words, when President Yanukovych (Viktor Yanukovych was president of Ukraine from 2010-2014 .) left the country, that was the alarm bell for Putin because it was the kind of revolution he feared. It was the same revolution that took place in 2010 or 2011 in Russia. Anti-corruption rhetoric was the language Alexei Navajo used. This rhetoric for democracy, rule of law, transparency, accountability, anti-corruption is the language that harms and threatens Putin the most. The need to destroy Ukraine is primarily the need to destroy this rhetoric even in Russia. It's kind of a war of ideas.

The third goal is world. Putin has a global geopolitical strategy, which is to undermine international law and world rules that were introduced after World War II.

After World War II? Not after the Cold War?

No! The United Nations statue is one that guarantees the sovereignty of nations at their borders; the Geneva convention defines the rules of war and does not target civilians; the UN convention on genocide predicts one nation's existence should not be destroyed or undermined. Putin wants all of this to have no value, no meaning.

It's a little unclear, but he's talking about a world of <x0... multipolar” in which he'll live. The word “multipolular” means nothing. Okay, multipolar world means the existence of many powers. But it is evident that we live in such a world. But I think he means something else. It implies a world in which powerful states can invade the most powerless states and large states can dominate the smaller states. And he will live in this world. Not in a world of rules where the United Nations, the United States, and other obstacles can get in the way. These are his personal, political and global intentions.

In your view, what does the West mean by Putin's Russia and the way it governs?

I don't think the West understands the extremism of “Putinism”. They continue to imagine there might be an agreement that can be reached, that “if we give the Crime to Russia, they'll end the war”. And I don't think they realize that his intentions are broader and more ambitious, that his intentions include destroying the Transatlantic Alliance and possibly the European Union.

I don't think they realized how wide these goals are and therefore didn't understand that before the war is over, Putin should lose it or at least he should be convinced that he can't win it. The path to peace is Putin's conviction that he will not win the war, that there is no hope.

But for now, all I see is that if you really want peace, then you have to arm Ukraine and protect it until Putin realizes that the war is over. I think it's the main thing Westerners don't understand.

And what doesn't Putin understand about the West?

From the beginning, he underestimated Ukrainians. He knows very little about modern Ukraine. He doesn't know people. He does not realize that the Ukrainian government is a elected government, has support and that Ukrainian national identity is real. And that Ukrainians will fight until they can. That includes fighting a guerrilla war if Kiev were to fall.

It underestimates the possibility and will of Europe and the United States to help Ukraine. And he underestimates the power of ideas. It's not just democracy. It has to do with uniting and integrity that motivates part of the Western and European leaders. He's taking them for granted, and then he's wrong. / DW/Periscopi/