Was Iran very close to producing an atom bomb?

Following the first wave of attacks Thursday evening, the Iranian foreign minister condemned what he called the premature “attacks on his country's “peaceful nuclear targets”. Since then, Iran has launched offensive air strikes against Israel.

Abbas Arghchi said Nathanz was operated under the monitoring of the global nuclear overseer, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and that attacks on the facility jeopardised a <x1-cymastre radiological”, reports BBCFollow Periscope.

However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation was needed to reduce the Iranian threat to Israel's own survival”.

He said Israel had acted because “if it doesn't stop, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time”.

Could be a year. It could be in a few months”, he warned.

Is there evidence that Iran was working on a nuclear bomb?

The Israeli Army said it had collected information showing that concrete “progress had been made” “in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted to a nuclear bomb”, including a metal uranium core and a neutron source initiative to trigger nuclear explosion.

Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the US-based Arms Control Association, said Israel's prime minister “did not present any clear or convincing evidence that Iran was on the verge of weapons”.

<x0Iran has been in an almost zero explosion for months,” she told the BBC, referring to the time Iran would need to provide enough decompressable material for a bomb if it chose to do so.

“in a similar way, the assessment that Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon within months is not new.”

She said some of Iran's nuclear activities would be applicable to the development of a bomb, but US intelligence agencies had estimated Iran was not engaged in key weapons work.

This March, National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that Iran's enriched uranium reserves were “at their highest level” and “unprecedented for a state without a nuclear weapon”.

But she also said the American intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ajatolah Ali] Khamenei did not authorize the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003”.

“If Netanyahu were motivated simply by the risk of spreading Iran, Israel would likely have shared that intelligence with the United States and the initial attack likely targeted all of Iran's top nuclear facilities”, Mrs. Davenport.

Last week, The IAEA said in its latest quarterly report that Iran had accumulated enough uranium enriched up to 60% purity a short technical step away from the weapons degree, or 90% ] to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. This was “a serious concern issue”, given the risks of spreading, she added.

The agency also said it could not provide assurances that the Iranian nuclear programme was exclusively peaceful, because Iran was not sticking to its investigation into man-made uranium particles, discovered by inspectors in three undeclared nuclear sites.

What do we know about Iran's nuclear program?

Iran has always said its nuclear programme is completely peaceful and has never tried to develop a nuclear weapon.

However, a ten-year investigation by the IAE found evidence that Iran conducted “a series of relevant activities for the development of a nuclear explosive device” from the end of 1980 to 2003, when projects under what were known as “Project Amated” were halted.

Iran continued with several activities until 2009 when Western powers discovered the construction of an underground enrichment facility Fordo é, but after that there were no reliable “indications” for weapons development, the agency concluded.

In 2015, Iran agreed to an agreement with six world powers, under which it accepted restrictions on its nuclear activities and allowed rigorous monitoring by IAE inspectors in exchange for relief from devastating sanctions.

The main restrictions covered its production of enriched uranium, which is used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons.
But US President Donald Trump abandoned the agreement during his first term in 2018, saying it did very little to stop a path to a bomb, and restored US sanctions.

Iran retaliated by increasingly violating restrictions, especially those related to enrichment.

Under the nuclear agreement, no enrichment was allowed in Fordo for 15 years. In 2021, however, Iran resumed enriching uranium in its cleanness of 20%.
On Thursday, the board of 35-nation IAEA governors officially declared Iran violating its obligations for its first non-proliferation in 20 years.

Iran said it would respond to the resolution by setting up a new structure for enriching uranium in a safe “ ” and replacing the centrifuges of the first generation used for enriching uranium with the most advanced machinery of the sixth generation, at the Formo enrichment plant.

What damage has Israel done to Iran's nuclear infrastructure?

The Israeli Army said Friday that the first round of air strikes damaged the centrifuges underground hall in Natanz, as well as the critical infrastructure that enabled the country to function.

IAEA General Director Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council that the underground pilot fuel enrichment plant (PFEP) and electricity infrastructure in Nataz were destroyed. There was no indication of a physical attack on the underground hall, but that the loss of energy could have damaged centrifuges there, he added.

US Institute for Science and International Security said collapse PFEP was important because the object was used to produce 60%-rich uranium and also to develop advanced centrifuges.

Mrs. Davenport also said the attacks in Natanz would increase “the timing of Iran's” blast, but that it was too early to assess the full impact.

We will not have a clear view of how fast Iran can resume operations there or whether Iran was able to divert uranium until IAEA has access to the country”, she explained.

Later Friday, Iran briefed The IAEA that Israel had attacked the Formo enrichment plant and the Ishan Nuclear Technology Centre.

The Israeli Army said an attack on Isfahan had “designed a facility for the production of metal uranium, infrastructure for reconversion of enriched uranium, labs and additional infrastructure”.

As long as Fordo remains operational, Iran still poses a short-term distribution risk. Tehran has the opportunity to increase enrichment to the country's weapons degree levels or to divert uranium to an undeclared location”, said Mrs. Davenport.

Israel's prime minister also said that the operation will continue for “as long as it takes to remove that threat”.

But this is an unrealistic goal, according to Mrs. Davenport.
“Sulmet can destroy structures and target scientists, but cannot erase Iran's nuclear knowledge. Iran can be rebuilt, and faster now than in the past because of its advances in enriching uranium”, she said. /PERISCOP/