What is Europe's plan for the Ukraine-Russia peace talks?

There have been a series of successful high-level meetings in Paris on April 17th and one in London six days later, which was politically minimized after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and White House special envoy Steve Wtkoff cancelled.

Dispartance reportedly occurred due to Kiev's unwillingness to reconcile with a peace plan involving recognition of Russia's illegal annexation of the Crime Peninsula, broadcasts Periscope.

On April 26th, US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian leader Voldymyr Zelensky before the funeral of Pope Francis of the Vatican. However, no results were reported from this meeting.

What is Europe doing in the face of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks?

The first priority is for the United States to remain under way and continue its communication with Ukrainians. How successful this effort can still be, as Washington has threatened to leave the process if there is no progress soon.

Officials with whom Radio Free Europe has spoken, however, said they believe it may be a negotiating tactic aimed at pressuring Ukraine, saying American President Donald Trump tends to appear harsh in public and then returns to the negotiating table as testified to by the way he decided and then withdrew from implementation of at least temporarily trade tariffs.

Europeans are aiming for what they are calling “sequencing”, that is, first a ceasefire that would be respected by both sides, and then achieved lasting peace.

The belief is that this could ensure that more Ukrainian security interests are guaranteed and not everything will happen according to Moscow's conditions. There is hope that Ukraine's willingness, expressed last month, to respect a ceasefire and Russia's failure to such a willingness shows Kyevi is acting with confidence, unlike Moscow.

This would also give Europeans time to organise a “security force” in the western part of Ukraine with at least some American political support, although American military participation seems impossible, according to European diplomats with whom Radio Free Europe talked.

The current idea is less in the direction of a presence of <x0cmes on the ground” and more towards air patrols, with the aim of providing security at Lviv Airport and surrounding areas as a transport centre for Ukraine.

Europeans are also committed to continuing military aid to Ukraine.

While it is believed that it may be impossible to fully fill the gap left by the United States, there is hope that European money will continue to flow and that the new German government, which will be formed in early May, will be more open, especially for the adoption of long-awaited floating missiles from Kiev, Taurus.

What about US calls for recognition of the crime as Russian?

As for some American demands for a potential peace proposal, Europeans are very clear.

There will be no de jure recognition of the crime as part of Russia unless, of course, Ukraine agrees on something like that. De facto recognition of territories currently controlled by Russia is another issue. Also, the failure to join Ukraine's NATO membership is an issue that can be overcome.

Several European states hid behind the US, when, under the administration of former President Joe Biden, the possibility of sending Ukraine's invitation to join the military alliance at both the NATO summit in Vilnius in 2023 and Washington a year later.

Evental membership in the EU, however, is another issue. Brussels and all the European allied capitals are convinced that Moscow has no bearing on the decision.

According to diplomats, who have knowledge of the American peace agreement proposal, Russia agrees that Ukraine could join the bloc. A so-called Cypriot scenario, which means that all Ukraine at some point can be considered part of the EU, yet in fact only those parts under Kiev's control will be included, it seems to be possible choice.

One thing that doesn't seem to be on the agenda right now, which makes Europeans happy -- is the requirement for holding new elections in Ukraine -- a request diplomats told the REL that it has quietly left American demands, since it was originally mentioned as a possible condition. But the REL has learned that this demand can also be something Russia can push forward.

Can Europe ease sanctions against Russia?

Next is the matter of sanctions. While the US has offered Russia the possibility of easing sanctions, Europeans do not support such an option. It will take unanimity for the EU to lift sanctions, and currently such unanimity does not exist currently.

In fact, diplomats told the REL that Paris and Berlin want to toughen pressure on Russia, and in the coming weeks to impose even tougher measures.

Except that the 17th pack of sanctions on the Kremlin is planned, following the deadly Russian attacks on Sumi and Krijvi Roh earlier in April, and Brussels is now accelerating the design of this package.

The EU is also finalising asset freezes and the deployment of travel stops for 15 Russians accused of committing hybrid attacks on the EU. This will be part of a split package of sanctions.

As with all things related to Russia, European officials acknowledge that it will be difficult for Hungary to give the green light, and therefore the new package will likely be symbolic and not with any major impact.

They also must get Budapest's consent to renew sector sanctions against Russia in July. There are many concerns that this may not happen, and other member states may even begin to oppose certain sanctions measures, creating a hurry on finding alternatives to keeping sanctions in force.

One of the points most states want to preserve is approximately 200 billion euros of frozen Russian assets, which are in the bloc, not only because the EU wants to use this amount as a charter against Moscow, in order to force it to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Sudden profits from frozen assets currently finance Ukraine's military needs, and a 45 billion-euro loan from G7 supporting Kiev's macrofinance needs for 2025 are supported by these assets, such as collateral. Therefore, Europe wants to hold certain sanctions against Russia in place in the future. /REL