What kind of weapons does Ukraine need from the U.S.?

“Obama gave you sheets, I sent Javelin”, Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Oval Office. In fact, it was Trump who first allowed the sending of deadly weapons to Ukraine. The opposite rocket Yavelin played an important role in the early days of the occupation, destroying Russian columns.

After the camera debate, multiyear military aid to Ukraine can suddenly end. So far it's not known if Americans plan to interrupt them. According to a Wall Street Journal report, Ukrainians can continue to struggle with actual intensity until mid-year if American support continues. After that, supplies will be exhausted.

Donald Trump could stop them even immediately, at least in theory, but this would require great political effort. Moreover, the Biden administration has bequeathed a $3.8 billion military assistance that must be sent directly from the Pentagon reserve in Ukraine. Trump can block this shipment. In addition, Ukraine has agreements with the American arms industry that last until next year.

Earth's Problems, Air Corruption

The United States is far from Kiev's most important supporter. So far, 64 billion euros in military aid from Washington have arrived in Ukraine. Germany is second on the list of almost 13 billion euros. Even though European countries have increased the production of weapons after the start of the war, they can only compensate for part of American aid.

The sector where Europe can best cover American absence is artillery ammunition. Last year, Ukrainians were ready to remain without American aid. Now, Europeans and Ukrainians themselves can produce enough. The EU plans to produce two million shells this year, while Ukraine is roughly as much. By comparison, Americans have sent three million pieces of ammunition since the beginning of the war.

But without the US, Ukraine would lose a decisive advantage. Currently, Ukrainians are compensated for the lack of personnel at the front with a combination of artillery, mines and fears, slowing Russian progress.

The situation in the air would be much more problematic. In defense against ballistic missiles, American Patriot systems are almost irreplaceable. Without them, not only would Ukrainian cities be more protected from air strikes but also military objects. This would allow Russians to crack down on air defence systems used to prevent drones and navigation missiles, creating additional gaps in defence.

Blind behind the front?

Even in the field surveillance field, American aid is irreplaceable, explains military expert Franz-Stefan Gaye. American Drons often patrol over the Black Sea and Northern Europe, providing Ukraine with key information on Russian troop movements. American satellites also offer high resolution images of enemy positions and movements.

This data was vital at the beginning of the occupation, but Ukrainians and Europeans have made progress in this sector as well. Much of the observation now comes true with fear. However, a major problem would be whether Elon Musk's Starlink satellite service would stop functioning, as it often ensures the Internet link to Ukrainian drones.

How long can Ukraine survive without the United States?

Experts are divided on this question. Russia too is leaving without resources, and its arsenal is not endless. While Ukraine lacks personnel mainly, the Russians are running out of armour.

Cutting off American support would be an important disadvantage for Ukraine, but this would not necessarily imply a Russian victory. The war could drag on for a long time, with a high price for both sides.