When Europe moves attention, what happens to Kosovo?

In recent weeks, the idea of a European mission to Ukraine has gained momentum. If achieved, it could redefine the security priorities in Europe. But how would NATO's presence in Kosovo affect Kosovo? Less attention, more danger, some analysts predict.

As Europe examines sending troops to Ukraine, another front enters the game: Kosovo.

With thousands of European peacekeepers deployed in the country, could the concentration of resources and attention in the east leave Kosovo more vulnerable?

NATO makes sure it doesn't. In an Answer Radio Free EuropeFollow Periscope, a coalition official says “NATO has long been committed to the security and stability of the Western Balkans. We will continue to contribute in this direction, along with other commitments that Allies can take.”.

Peacekeeping Mission NATO, KFOR, is located in Kosovo after the end of the war in 1999.

Currently has Over 4,600 bodies The vast majority of them Europeans. Italy leads by over 1,200, then other countries, such as Hungary, Germany, Poland, or Switzerland, with hundreds of soldiers.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, too, there has been a peacekeeping mission, consisting of European forces for decades.

With 1,100 soldiers and 3,500 more reserve, EUFOR provides support to this country's institutions in maintaining peace since 2004, when it replaced NATO forces.

Chief NATO, Mark Rutte, was in Bosnia and Kosovo just this month. At a meeting with reporters in Pristina on March 11th, he said commitment NATO in the region remains strong to this day.

He said sending the evental of European troops to Ukraine could influence the revision of foreign military presence in the Balkans, but did not say how or when.

The “is very early [to talk], because, firstly, there must be an agreement on peace in Ukraine, or a truce, before you start preserving it”, Rutte said.

Britain and France are leading efforts to gather a military force that would be deployed in Ukraine in case of a ceasefire.

This, after American President Donald Trump initiated talks on a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine three years after the Russian state began its neighbour's full conquest.

The United Kingdom and France are jointly leading the plans for arranging security guarantees for Ukraine. We're doing this together. We are closely co-operating with partner countries and are trying to establish a coalition of volunteers from Europe and beyond”, British Defence Secretary John Healey said.

After a meeting of European leaders, on March 27th in Paris, France's President Emmanuel Macron said they agreed to consider specific legal issues about any European security force for Ukraine, and report after three weeks.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the mission would not be possible without US assistance, but the US was cold at the idea of any military role in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, as well, that for Russia it would be unacceptable to be the presence of NATO countries' forces in Ukraine ♫ “under any circumstance”, according to him.

Some observers like Tim Les, of Cambridge University's Geopolitical Centre, do not expect this mission to be formed, precisely because of these objections.

Instead, Les expects Europe to fortify states that are most concerned by the Russian threat, such as those of Baltic, Poland, Romania or Moldova.

“E, if you assess that the Balkans are at the front to confront Russia, then I think we will see greater militarism, especially of Kosovo and Bosnia. But, if the first scenario occurs, it would require a kind of realomeration of resources away from the Balkans, towards those other countries”.

“in that case, Serbia would be sent a clear message, that it would not face objections, if it pushed its political goals” forward, Les says of the programme Expose Radio Free Europe.

This sentiment also divides Hikmet Karciq, research associate at Sarajevo University and author of the book “Torture, humiliation, murder: Within the Bosnian Serb camp system”.

Distraction can create gaps in security, he says.

“Any violence that occurs in the region has the potential to spread from one country to another in Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Northern Macedonia. We've seen this in the past. But, in recent years, it has been the focus of the West, NATO, the one who has been defending the region”.

In Kosovo, for example, the presence of foreign troops is the main reason why Serbia has not made an effort just about two years ago in Banjska to physically attack it”, Karciq says of Expose.

Loshaj life, a researcher at the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies, expects the Balkan region to remain on Europe's radar and settle in every plan for defence it makes.

This, she feels, is also witnessed by the chief of staff NATO in Kosovo, in advance even in Bosnia.

We do not know yet whether the [European] forces will be deployed to Ukraine. But if such a decision is made, Europe has invested in its military forces. We have also seen the 800 billion-euro protection plan. I think that would include Kosovo”, Losaj says of Expose.

Loshaj suggests Kosovo institutions remain in close communication with international allies, whether with NATO as a whole or with its states separately.

It particularly values the initiative for military co-operation that was undertaken late by Kosovo, Albania and Croatia.

“ [It] sends a message that Kosovo is ready to find ways not only to strengthen its capacities, but also to reflect on current geopolitical situations”, Losaj says.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who aims at a new government mandate, pledged this week over a billion-euro budget for the country's Security Force and reiterated that Kosovo will build its ammunition plant and military fears.

Les, from Cambridge University, believes Kosovo should take two key steps to maintain the attention of its allies.

“One is active lobby in the West, promoting the idea that Serbia is a threat to it and needs to be contained. And, under two, to invest in her security, by building her army, by building her weapons reserves and so on if she has to face Serbia directly and without help from outside”, Les says.

Karcic agrees that co-ordinated diplomatic and military strategies will be crucial to balancing these simultaneous security challenges.

According to him, the West would have to help Kosovo strengthen its military and security capacities, including increased cyber security, to be able to protect against possible threats.

Bosnia says it should encourage it to overcome its political divisions and take steps to strengthen its security institutions and capacities.

On the contrary, Karcic says Russia would meet any possible vacuum that would leave the West.

“Russia, along with its supporters in Serbia and Montenegro, would definitely try to prevent NATO's enlargement into this area, as well as its EU integration. Also, it would make efforts to destabilise NATO states in the Balkans, such as Montenegro. We have seen these efforts even in past years, especially with Montenegro and North Macedonia”, he says.

And, with an American administration signaling less involvement in European affairs, the Kremlin can feel less pressure on its actions, whether in Ukraine or the Balkans, Professor Les says.

Donald Trump's “Inauguration on January 20th was a kind of bomb that exploded in international relations. Almost everywhere you look, you see a kind of effect of Trump”, according to him.

In this uncertain climate, the challenge for Kosovo and the Western Balkans generally seems clear: stay on the radar, or risk being excluded from geopolitical game, analysts say.

But this requires a careful balance between internal and international interests something that is never easy, especially in a region like the Balkans. / REL