Why Black Sea is crucial to Ukraine-Russia ceasefire

The US and Russia issued conflicting statements following recent negotiations. What does this mean for the future of possible peace talks between Russia and Ukraine?

Early in the week of the end, American and Russian delegations to Saudi Arabia (24.03) sat at the negotiating table, aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The specificity of the meeting was ensuring a special Black Sea ceasefire agreement that would allow the resumption of grain exports from the ports of Ukraine. Talks between the delegations lasted 12 hours, a record. But despite long discussions, none of the countries rushed to declare results. Rather than issue a joint statement after the end of the talks, the US and Russia subsequently issued separate statements, with similarities, but with changes to some essential details.

Kremlin connects agreement to lift sanctions

Ukraine and Russia reached ceasefire agreements on the Black Sea and co-ordination of details for preventing shocks in energy infrastructure, the White House said. The Kremlin, on the other hand, issued a statement confirming that the countries agreed to ensure the safety of the Black Sea navigation. It was also mentioned that the US would help restore the access of Russian agricultural goods to the global market.

Kremlin said the ceasefire would only come into effect after certain conditions have been met, if some sanctions against Russia are partially lifted. In particular, Russia is demanding lifting restrictions on companies involved in food exports and banks supporting them. The Kremlin also requires that sanctions be lifted against Russian-flagged ships that trade food and chemical garbage, as well as lifting restrictions on imports of agricultural equipment in Russia.

As the White House said, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had agreed to a ceasefire on the Black Sea after Russia issued

of her statement, he reacted sharply, accusing Moscow of lying about the terms of negotiations. There is something that the Kremlin is lying about again: that supposedly silence on the Black Sea depends on the matter of sanctions”, Zelensky said in his speech to the Ukrainian people. In reality, he said, the Black Sea ceasefire has not been linked to sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the removal of Russian sanctions would be a “disaster for diplomacy”

Reduced Risks of escalation

According to the White House's interpretation, the deal would eliminate the use of force” in the Black Sea to free maritime trade. The White House statement also mentions that the US will help restore Russia's access to the world market for agricultural and waste exports, reduce sea insurance costs and improve access to ports and payment systems for such transactions”. It is unclear whether this would include a partial easing of sanctions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in televised remarks Tuesday that Russia wants to base this new Black Sea initiative on the previous grain deal, but warned that Russian interests must be protected.

Despite apparent disputes, experts told the DW that the parties involved in the negotiations will likely soon reach a ceasefire on the Black Sea. Political analyst Alexandra Filippenko, Lithuanian researcher at the Institute of Studies for Canada and America, believes the accord “is the largest of several small steps before”. “It is not a big breakthrough, but it is a step towards reducing the risk of escalation,” added Filippenko.

According to the UN, the grain deal with Ukraine facilitated the export of 32 million tonnes of grain to 45 countries on three continents between July 2022 and July 2023. As UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said at the time, the agreement was crucial to global food security.

Trump “is unlikely to blame Putin”

The mere fact that Russia issued a statement on its own terms has prompted US President Donald Trump to accuse Russian President Vladimir Putin of obstructing a peace deal. In an interview with the Newsmax news network, Trump said the Russians “are dragging a deal”. Alexander Filippenko sees Trump's statements as a significant departure from his earlier promises to end the conflict soon. “In recent months, Trump's attitude towards Putin has been shifted from secret admiration, surprise and belief that Putin respects Trump and is ready to reach a quick deal, now to a more cautious and skeptical approach,” notes Filippenko.

Political analyst Anton Barbash believes Donald Trump will make concessions for the Kremlin. According to him, Trump has no intention of criticising Putin for his unwillingness to make peace.” The US is investing a considerable amount of time to achieve at least something, so I would assume they will continue to try to fulfill at least part of Russia's promises in a way before they say it's Putin's fault that nothing is working,” said Barbasin. In fact, the situation seems quite favourable to Russia, according to Barbash. According to him, a Black Sea truce costs Russia nothing.

Black Sea Situation

In a recent interview with the European Broadcasting Union, EBU, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine controls the situation in the Black Sea. They have not checked the Black Sea corridor for a long time. We're fighting for him because it's a step towards the end of the war. We control the situation on the Black Sea”, Zelensky said.

Alexander Palyy, a Ukrainian political analyst, told DW that during the past year, Russia withdrew to the eastern part of the Black Sea and has not been able to carry out large-scale attacks in the region. He said Ukraine achieved this through the use of marine fears. As a result, the wheat trade is functioning at relatively pre-war levels, Pauly said. He believes a new wheat deal would be more useful for Russia.

“Ukrainian could attack Russian ships involved in oil exports or other exports at any moment. However, (Ukraina) cares for environmental effects, and countries like Turkey and the US are important. That's why Ukraine has been very cautious” highlights Pauly.

Russia's presence on the Black Sea is crucial to not only trade but also, as the Kremlin has repeatedly declared, for the country's security. Under international law, Russia owns only about 10% of the Black Sea coastline. However, through its increasing influence in the region, Russia effectively controls about a third of the coastline currently.

Russia has a military presence in Crime, which it illegally annexed in 2014, and the republic of Abkhazia in the unknown South Caucasus region has made this presence possible. In Russia, military forces stationed in Abkhazia are seen as key to ensuring the safety of the southern Russian borders. / DW