How important is American intelligence information to Ukraine?

The United States' decision to limit Ukraine's support with intelligence information would severely damage Kiev's ability to defend itself against Russia, but would not mean an end to Ukraine's efforts to fight, officials and analysts say.

Washington announced on March 5th that it imposed restrictions on sharing intelligence information with Ukraine, as it had previously suspended military aid for Kiev.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe said that the new restrictions on providing intelligence information stem from President Donald Trump's concerns about the dedication of his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, to peace, after the catastrophic meeting between them at the Oval Office last week.

How is Ukraine using American intelligence information?

The size, nature and impact of US intelligence information assistance to Ukraine have not been disclosed. Also, it is not clear to what extent the distribution of intelligence information has been suspended or in which particular areas the suspensions are taking place.

Two American defence officials told CNN on March 7th that the United States continues to share intelligence information with Ukraine to help with defence operations, but have “defined” providing intelligence information that can be used to attack Russian forces.

Some experts and politicians who spoke of Radio Free Europe (REL) said the United States is providing Ukraine with key data collected through sophisticated satellite surveillance, signal capture and information from human sources for the whereabouts and movement of Russian troops, heavy weapons and their planned attacks.

Maxar, the American company offering high-resolution satellite images, told Time Current that its Ukrainian clients are facing restrictions to approach data provided by the United States.

“Maxar has contracts with the US Government and dozens of Allied states and partners worldwide to offer satellite images and other geospatial data,” said a Maxar spokesman for Time Current.

One of these contracts is GEGD, an American Government programme offering access to commercial satellite images, which are assigned and collected by the US government. The US government has decided to temporarily suspend Ukrainian accounts in GEGD”, he said.

US intelligence data has enabled the Ukrainian Army to plan its attacks and operations, as well as receive timely warnings of Russian air strikes, as well as ground attacks, experts said.

Since the beginning of the entire invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kiev, have been hit repeatedly by air strikes.

Roman Costenko, secretary of Ukraine's Parliamentary Committee for National Security, Defence and Intelligence, said the lack of vital information of American intelligence puts “at greater risk” the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.

Could we [still] hit the enemy without external intelligence information? Yeah, sure. For example, we can strike fixed targets as a remote airtrack that we already know”, said Kostanko, former military commander.

But [we rely on American intelligence] to see in real time whether there are planes, if they are preparing to get up to attack Ukraine”, he added.

Ukraine also depends on US data to use the highly mobile artillery missile system (HIMARS) and the military tactical missile system (ATACMS), which are among the most advanced artillery systems in the world.

Experts told the REL that the suspension of intelligence information sharing includes the HIMARS and ATACMS data, meaning that Ukraine will be able to access its use against Russia.

Advanced Systems and Spys

Describing American intelligence as “soperial” and “unsurpassed”, the Russian intelligence analyst based in New York, Ruslan Leviev, said the United States owns a wide network of satellite detectors, advanced technology and much larger financial resources to invest in their intelligence capabilities.

When Russian bombers head towards the border to launch rockets, American intelligence can detect this well ahead. [The United States] may even monitor internal communications by the Russian Defence Ministry, where orders are given to plan flights or to carry out attacks on specific targets. This means that the United States may be aware of an attack even before the aircraft is up”, Leviev told REL.

Leviev, founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent organisation investigating Russian military activities, also stressed that the United States has more “s than any other country to recruit agents on the ground.

Can Ukraine survive with less American intelligence data?

Experts and politicians agree that Washington's decision to limit intelligence information sharing would put Ukraine in a difficult and unfavourable position in its fight against Russia.

But some Ukrainians hope the country will cover the gap of intelligence information that other Western allies offer to it, as well as information from its sources.

France has said that sharing its intelligence information with Ukraine has not been affected by the US decision.

According to British media, the United Kingdom will continue to provide intelligence data to Ukraine, though it will not follow the data accepted by the United States.