18 months of silence in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, will Sorensen's visit be unblocked?

The process of dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia has remained in the deadlock, with 18 months without a high-level meeting.

With both countries facing internal challenges, the prospect of a final agreement seems increasingly distant.

Analysts stress that the international community should focus on mutual recognition between the two countries, not just normalisation of relations, the REL reports. Periscope.

Peter Sorensen's visit, EU approach

The European Union's special envoy, Peter Sorensen, visited Pristina at a moment when dialogue appears to be not in the main agenda of leaders.

Kosovo continues to focus on the post-election process, while Serbia faces protests and political unrest.

Despite that, Sorensen stressed that dialogue must continue and that he will also hold meetings in Belgrade to see opportunities for future steps.

“Dialolog is to make sure there are appointments. Whether it means compromise or not, it is up to the parties to decide”, he said.

Processor and Banjsca incident

The last meeting between Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, was held in September 2023, but it did not bring any concrete progress. Only ten days after the meeting did the armed attack on Banja, where Serb armed groups killed a Kosovo police officer, straining the situation even more.

After this incident, the EU's efforts to bring the parties back to the negotiating table failed, largely because of conditions imposed on both sides. Kosovo has called for the removal of EU punitive measures and the extradition of members of the armed group, while Serbia continues to insist on the establishment of the Serb Major Community Association.

Debate over Serbian Communist Association

For Serbia, establishing association remains a key condition for continuing dialogue. This facility had been agreed on since 2013, but Kosovo has not implemented it, arguing it would jeopardise the functioning of the state. According to President Vjosa Osmani, the draft drafted by the EU would not receive green light from the Constitutional Court of Kosovo.

Analyst Leon Hardwell stresses that association cannot be the solution to the current crisis, while Kurt Bassaunner from the Council for Democratic Policy warns that Bosnia's model should not be repeated in Kosovo, as it could create a new entity within the state.

There is a strong perception that association would help advance dialogue, but I am very skeptical about it. A possible option for Kosovo would be to present a relaxed version of Association, and in a way implement it only to silence critics, but stressed that implementing the strong executive competence would become quite problematic for Kosovo”.

Conscious Recognition as a Chief Purpose

Analysts stress that the European Union should focus on mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia, as the concept of normalisation is very undefined.

One of the possible options, according to Hardwell, is for the five EU countries that have not yet recognised Kosovo to do so, making it impossible for Serbia to avoid facing the new reality.

It is really important for mutual recognition to be brought to the fore of this dialogue, because the idea of normalisation is very undefined if you don't have a clear purpose, you don't even try to achieve something specific. So, I think Sorensen has to put this goal forward so that he can move the parties in a certain direction and solve this conflict once and for all”, Hardwell added.

In the course of rapid geopolitical changes, Bassaunner says the Western Balkans in general is a region where the EU has great potential to influence the stabilisation of the situation and the Kosovo and Serbia issue under it is essential to this stability

“I hope there's a re-evaluation of policies from the European Union. I still see no evidence in this, nor in EU institutions, nor in member states, even though it takes longer time to turn the ship in the other direction. Understandably, they focused on helping Ukrainians. If Americans withdraw, how to defend themselves legitimately, these are priorities, but the Western Balkans is the only country in the world where the EU can be truly crucial”, Basiner said.

US Position and Foreign Policy Influence

Kosovo must preserve the support of the United States, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

In the current administration, reports between Kurti government and American officials have had challenges, due to uncoordinated actions in northern Kosovo.

Despite the challenges, it remains unclear whether the EU will organise any new meeting between the parties soon.

With Kosovo still seeing a new government after the February elections and the ongoing protests in Serbia, the prospect of rapid progress seems bleak. /Radio Free Europe/