Les: Trump will operate in the Balkans just as in Ukraine the foundation is being laid for a <x0-nderd recognition solution” between Kosovo and Serbia

Donald Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine in his own way, says Timothy Les, who seems to have not surprised the American president's recent movements at all. The deal, he says, is based on a brutally realistic “assessment of the power balance on ground” and the US's “strategic goal to break the Chinese-Russian axis”.

The former British diplomat thinks Trump sees Europeans as insignificant to resolve this issue, and even as an obstacle that could jeopardise any chance of an agreement that would be acceptable to Russia.

The American president is guided by the logic that <x0 does on the basis of the world as it is, not according to the world as he would like it to be”, Les told. Recent developments about Ukraine, he says they have shown “The U.S. accepts border changes if it helps solve a” problem.

All of this has direct reactions with the Balkans where the logic of Trump's position in Ukraine leads to partitioning Kosovo as a permanent solution to its unresolved status, perhaps associated with the secession of the Presevo Valley from Serbia. This also points to a new political solution in Bosnia, which includes either greater autonomy for Republika Srpska, or independence and its union with Serbia”, he tells Express.

According to Les, things can go like this: “initially Ukraine, then the Balkans”. He expects Trump will try to finally resolve the issue between Kosovo and Serbia, while the European Union will try to hold the negotiations in Brussels.

So I see that things will develop in the Balkans as in Ukraine Europeans like the UK and Germany will speak harshly, expose their principles and demand that things be solved according to their concept of morality and law. But in practice, Europeans will do little to implement their positions, allowing the US to resolve the Kosovo issue as it wants”.

Les says Richard Green, Trump's special mission envoy, is already setting the stage for a resolution based on “recognition division”.

INT ERVISTA

 How do you assess President Trump's haste to close the issue of Russia's war in Ukraine?

Les: He wants to end the war and he's doing it in a typical Trumpian way. The agreement is based on a brutally realistic assessment of the balance of power on the ground and the strategic goal of the US to break the Chinese-Russian axis. This means that the agreement necessarily favours Russia ʹ he is accepting Moscow's main requirement that Ukraine not join NATO and is giving Russia the territory it has seized at the east. All of this is obviously unacceptable to Ukraine, so the US is putting pressure on Kyivin, so it's a hail of negative comments from Trump for Ukraine, threats to end funding and attempts to remove President Zelenskiy, who is reluctant to compromise.

 How can the relationship between Europe and the US continue, as Trump appears to be leaving Europeans out of negotiations with Russia?

Les: I think Trump views Europeans as trivial for resolving the war, as they have failed to do so for three years, and as an obstacle to his plans. Many governments in Europe support Ukraine and their involvement in this phase would jeopardise any chance of an agreement that is acceptable to Russia. What he seems to want instead is to agree to parameters of an agreement with Russia, then put pressure on Ukraine to accept it, and to involve Europeans only in the implementation phase of Ukraine's security, rebuilding its economy and integrating it into the EU.

But there is more to US-European relations than Ukraine. Trump has said he wants to leave Europe militarily and hand over responsibility for the safety of the continent to Europeans themselves. He threatened business fees on the continent. He is also threatening Europe's territory with his claims on Greenland. And he's supporting the rebel parties like the AfD, which is bothering Europe's political establishment. So the whole relationship is in a flow phase. Europeans are feeling a combination of alarms, fears and betrayals, and negotiations are rapidly starting for ways to protect their interests, such as creating a new European defence alliance.

 And the United Kingdom, do you think Trump isn't including him in negotiations simply because of the British government?

Les: Trump has been gentle with the United Kingdom so far. We can only speculate about the reasons, but they may have to do with Trump's previous ties to Scotland, his close relationship with Nigel Farage, and the obvious efforts of the lab government to deal well with Trump since his election. The Sweets of Trump, Musk and others in the administration suggest that they feel more remorse than hostility to Britain an earlier superpower and the birthplace of the liberal democratic state, which is becoming increasingly poorer, insignificant and authoritarian.

How do you think the war in Ukraine can end? What will be the result? How could it affect the Western Balkan region, especially in Kosovo, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Les: We don't know yet how the war will end. We'll find out in the coming months but we can already draw some conclusions. We can see, for example, that the Trump administration is guided by realistic logic, defined by US strategic interests and not by feelings or morals, and that it acts on the basis of the world as it is, not according to the world as it would like to be. We can see that the U.S. accepts border changes if this helps solve a problem. And we can see that the U.S. wants to solve rather than freeze the European conflicts, allowing the United States to reduce its presence in Europe.

All of this has direct reactions with the Balkans where the logic of Trump's position in Ukraine leads to the partition of Kosovo as a permanent solution to its unresolved status, perhaps associated with the secession of the Presevo Valley from Serbia. This also points to a new political solution in Bosnia, which includes either greater autonomy for Republika Srpska, or independence and its union with Serbia.

Do you think a quick end to the “problem” in Ukraine would allow time for Trump Administration to deal with the final solution of the issue between Kosovo and Serbia?

Les: Things can go like this first Ukraine, then the Balkans. If peace efforts in Ukraine are mired, the Trump administration can look to the Balkans. I don't think the administration is working on a master plan for Eastern Europe. What can really change the game is if things heat up in the Balkans, how Bosnian Serbs try to deepen their autonomy and perhaps eventual independence. This could lead to a kind of crisis, draw US attention to the region and force it to find out how to deal with two active ethno-territorial disputes in Republika Srpska and Kosovo. If I had to speculate, Trump's solution would be an exchange of territories where Serbia would exchange Kosovo (minute north) with Republika Srpska.

 Do you believe the Trump Administration can close the issue between Kosovo and Serbia?

Les: He will try, given the idea of sharing in recognition and may succeed. But most Albanians do not accept partition, so it will be difficult to ensure their co-operation. The question I have in mind how far Trump will go to accommodate Serbs and pressure Albanians to achieve that result. How would he react if Serbs took the radical step to deploy their army to northern Kosovo?

 How will the European Union and the United Kingdom be found on this issue now that Trump is in the White House?

Les: I see separation. On the one hand, there will be liberal governments like that of Germany and the United Kingdom, which are shaken by Trump's approach to Ukraine, oppose American intervention in the Balkans and oppose any division of Kosovo. I expect them to insist on European ownership of negotiations. On the other hand, there will be conservative governments, such as Hungary's, which support a role of the Trump Administration in Kosovo and accept border changes if that is what is necessary to resolve Kosovo's status.

However, the most essential point for Europeans will be their non-relevance. For now, they are weak, having let their armies weaken and let their economies scan. They are self-absorbed, pursuing policies that have led to internal political crisis for years. They are hesitant to counter the US, while Trump is threatening Europe with tariffs and other punitive measures. And most simply don't care enough about the Balkans -- a country in which they have no strategic interests -- to wish they were involved.

So, I see that things will develop in the Balkans, as in Ukraine, Europeans like the UK and Germany will speak harshly, expose their principles and demand that things be resolved according to their concept of morality and law. But in practice, Europeans will do little to implement their positions, allowing the US to resolve the Kosovo issue as it wishes.

 In your last interview for the Express, you have predicted that the Trump Administration will abandon the Ohrid Agreement between Kosovo and Serbia. Can there be a redefinition of borders?

Les: Yes, that's what I think administration Trump will abandon the Ohrid Agreement, which is a dead letter in the letter written by the EU, and will instead pursue an agreement involving recognition of Kosovo by Serbia in exchange for partitioning Kosovo and the Serb-run north with Serbia.

In this direction, a major development that has occurred since we spoke last in December is that the US has clearly amended a revisionist stance on the border issue, including threats to annexing Greenland, Canada and Panama Canal, and the agreement to separate Ukraine from Russia. So what we can say is that the U.S. will have no principled objection to revising the borders in the Balkans if this serves American interests.

 You may have seen some of Richard Green's comments about former Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and the current government. Do you see Kosovo having more problems with the US?

Les: Yes, I think the arrival of the Trump administration is bad news for Kosovo. Richard Green is laying the groundwork for a solution based on recognition, and is already putting pressure on Kosovo to the extent it refuses to accept this. Wait for more of this pressure in the future.