When will the new Kosovo government be formed?

Now when the count, MP lists and everything else is ending following delays in the February 9th elections in Kosovo, then the new challenge of forming the government begins.

According to political awareness, the situation more unpredictable than the current one in Kosovo has not been in Kosovo for years.

Neither party has registered convincing victories to form the government alone, while joining forces this time seems a complicated process.

What are the procedures before?

President Vjosa Osmani must call the Kosovo Parliament's Constituent Assembly, which should be held at most 30 days after the certificate of official election results by the Central Election Commission (KQZ).

This meeting is considered closed only after the chairman and deputy heads of the Parliament are elected.

Based on preliminary results, the Speaker of the Assembly will meet with the Vetevendosje (LVV) Movement, which has won the most votes. But if this party does not propose someone for chairman, the process will freeze in the country.

Eugen Cakoli from the Kosovo Democratic Institute reminds us that, if that happens, it would not be the first time:

“Based on the practice of 2014, when the institution's binding procedure had lasted six months then the Constitutional Court has not determined legal, nor constitutional, terms that within what period the winning subject of elections is imposed to propose a candidate for the head of the Parliament”.

According to him, if there is no other Constitutional Court, the process can drag on until next year, when the president's mandate expires, and extraordinary elections are held.

In 2014, the process had only been unblocked when the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) had abandoned the then opposition bloc, and joined the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) in the coalition government.

Why would LV block?

The party of the current prime minister, Albin Kurti, could drag up the processes if it fails to form a stable coalition to close the cycle of forming institutions.

But if the Speaker of the House is elected, then the clock tickets start for the next deadline.

The country's president is tasked with nominating the winning election party as mandated for forming government.

Although there is not even a precise deadline here, decisions in force determine that the process should be developed “as early as possible”.

I expect that as soon as the president nominated the candidate proposed by the Vetevendosje Movement, the same will be obliged to propose before the Parliament the composition of the government cabinet” within 15 days, Cakoli has clarified.

The cabinet should secure the votes of 61 deputies within this deadline. But if that doesn't happen, the president is obliged to invite political parties to consult once again in 10 days, and decide, according to its discretion, for the new mandate, if she proves to have the numbers to form Government.

The upcoming mandate should also have 15 days to present the composition of the government cabinet.

If the government is not formed even after 40 days, the president must announce the decree on new elections, which must be held forty days after the verdict is announced.

What's the most likely scenario?

According to Calcol, neither of the parties seems to have any rush or any interest in forming institutions:

“On one side, the LV appears to have a very difficult time finding partners among Albanian parties, because, at least, according to the resulting results, it doesn't have such a partner and only with non-Serb minority parties can they not form Government. I believe it will be extremely difficult, and as a result, it will try to block the formation of institutions through the non-reputation of the candidate for head of the Parliament”.

Opposition parties will have another challenge if we assume the issue of the Speaker of the Assembly will be carried out.

“They will have a problem with the president's case, which will immediately be in March and April next year after LVV, with 47 deputies, based on current projections, can again block the president's election and trigger early elections”, Calcoli has assessed.

The parties may not be willing to move forward because, according to Cacol, it is the challenge to secure the vote, but also the demands of the international factor that can weigh on the new government.

Who could form a more stable government?

Cakolli has said that experience from the 2021 elections has shown that not even a Government with 68 MPs has been enough to pass the bills effectively.

“For a more solid scenario, a coalition is needed between the Vetevendosje Movement and Albanian parties”, he has stated, citing as more likely a union between LVV and PDK, even because of the votes needed for the position of the next president.

There are also many scenarios in party and outside discussions, and there are said to be many other mathematics. / REL