Coalions still in the air, eyes out of diaspora votes

Two and a half weeks after parliamentary elections in Kosovo, there is no sure idea what the country's new institutions will look like.

In the background, talks can be held and calculated, but little is spoken to the public.

Observers say that, in light of rapid geopolitical developments in the world, it is important that Kosovo has stable institutions as soon as possible, reports Radio Free Europe.

The subx1> Constitution of institutions on the basis of the outcome of the February 9th elections is also necessary because of Kosovo's interests in the European integration plan, but also the challenges that await it in the economic and political plan”, says Besar Gergi, from the Group for Legal and Political Studies (GSLP) in Pristina.

The current prime minister, Albin Kurti, said on February 26th he belongs to his party, Vetevendosje Movement, which, the clear “winner of the elections”, forms Kosovo institutions.

According to preliminary results, this party came first with about 40 per cent of the vote, followed by the Democratic Party of Kosovo by about 22 per cent, the Democratic League of Kosovo with about 17 per cent, and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo coalition initiative by about 7 per cent.

These figures show that neither party has enough votes to form a majority in the 120-seat Kosovo Assembly.

Even the diaspora votes, which are over 80,000 on parole and persons with special needs, remain to be counted.

Kurti said he expects the Central Election Commission next week to come up with final results for political subjects.

The “we all expect from the CEC even more commitment to complete the counting process and increased caution in protecting the will of voters”, he said.

Who said what?

After declaring victory in the February 9th elections, Kurti has voiced confidence that his Vetevendosje will form the government independently.

During that night's speech, he has used denigrative language to opposition parties, which some analysts have interpreted as a message that he will not seek coalition with them.

Coalition access with Vetevendosje has also ruled out the PDK, the AAK's LDK, but not the latter's partner, the Initiative.

Initiative leader Fatmir Limaj has not placed “red red” in the face of possible coalitions, either with Vetevendosje Movement or with the current opposition parties.

Whoever invites me to the table, I go. For Kosovo”, Limaj has said in a presentation at the Dukaguj Radio-Television.

Free Europe radio contacted Limaj and other officials of his party to ask whether coalition talks with Vetevendosje are under way and, if so, how far they have arrived, but despite some efforts, received no answer.

Even Vetevendosje officials did not respond similarly.

What do observers say?

Bekim Salihu, from the Institute for Advanced Studies ? GAP, says the final outcome of the February 9th elections will determine the diaspora votes.

He believes the parties are awaiting the Certificate of results, which has been warned will take place in mid-March to take concrete steps towards the eventual coalitions.

With votes counted so far, Vetevendosje has 47 deputies in the Kosovo Assembly, and to form the majority needs at least 61.

Salihu expects Kurti to secure any deputies from diaspora votes, while counting on the ten deputies of non-Serb communities as well as an MP from Serbs but not the Serbian List.

However, I see it possible for Vetevendosje to exploit Limaj's option, applying a kind of contracting of other MPs to support the” government, Salihu tells Radio Free Europe.

Similar thoughts also divide Grogi from GSLP, but adds that such a majority, with the minimum of required MPs, would not be stable.

He sees another possible option.

“Opsiion B is for the Vetevendosje Movement to make a ruling coalition with both the PDK and LDK, in order to have a stability in government, and to have sufficient numbers for electing the president in April of next year”, says Grgi.

The mandate of the current president, Vjosa Osmani, ends on April 7th in 2026.

How urgent is the formation of institutions?

For Besar Gergin, it is very urgent, especially when geopolitical developments in the world are taken into account, which, as it says, changes day-to-day.

Outside the war in Ukraine, which has received the main attention of the EU and the US, Grgi also cites the possibility of riots in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as a result of the conviction of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik.

The “so it is extremely important that Kosovo soon have a stable government and a secure leader in these dangerous geopolitical waters, in which we have entered”, Gergi says.

I believe the parties have rushed to decide red lines after the proclamation of preliminary results. Now, seeing the new reality being created on the ground, they will be forced to reconsider these set lines”, Grgi's conviction expresses.

Salihu, on the other hand, says the Vetevendosje Movement is not in a position to rush with the formation of the new government, because the budget for this year is approved.

So we have a government in office, which leads the LVV and, of course, the government in office has no time limit. The incumbent government could take all actions like a elected” government, Salihu says.

According to him, the only limit is the fact that it cannot prosecute international laws and agreements for approval in the Assembly.

With the Constitution of Kosovo 30 days after the certificate of the official election result from the CEC, President Osmani must call the assembly the Kosovo Assembly Constituents.

The institution ends with the election of the chairman and his vice president.

This practice may even last in 2014.