“No party will have the original majority to make the government 61 votes”

The early parliamentary elections in Kosovo, the likely for which rose markedly on 26 October after the Parliament did not approve a new Albin Kurti government, could bring changes to the party results, recognise the connoisseurs of political developments.

But, according to them, those changes would not be enough, so that parties would avoid the need for future co-governance.

According to the Kosovo Constitution, President Vjosa Osmani must appoint another mandate for forming the government within 10 days.

But, the leader of the second most voted party, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), Memli Krasniqi, dismissed the possibility of becoming a next mandate, in the event Kosovo president calls to ask if she has the majority.

Even Kurti, leader of the Vetevendosje (LVV) Movement, which won mostly seats in the Assembly from the February 9th elections, acknowledged that new elections may have remained the only option ahead of the crisis.

Elections do not ensure government without coalitions

Politologist Dritaro Arifi estimates there are several factors that would affect the results of the upcoming early elections.

Arifi tells Radio Free Europe that the results in the second round of mayoral elections of some of Kosovo's largest municipalities will give direction to parties that will win them to position themselves in parliamentary elections as well.

According to him, the approach of political parties in election campaigns and cautious rhetoric will be among the determining results, as well as the eventual coalitions before and after the elections.

I am convinced, by what is happening on the ground, that neither party will have the original majority to make the government 61 [volta]. Even if one party gets it, it's gonna be hard for it to get through the agenda. So there's still a need for a great cooperation”, Arifi says.

He says he sees as possible the smaller parties, such as the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and the Social Democrat Initiative, to be introduced into pre-election coalitions with major parties, mainly with former opposition ones, as well as The PDK or the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK).

Similarly, the changes await Behemman Pacarizi, professor at the Department of Journalism at Pristina University.

Pacarizi tells Radio Free Europe that if smaller parties, such as the Initiative or the AAK, do not enter pre-election coalitions, they risk failing to achieve the results that would secure a seat in the Assembly.

In such a situation, he estimates, the votes of these parties could be distributed proportionally to other major parties.

I believe there will be a change of numbers... However, I hardly see any substantial change, which would ensure the election of a government without significant difficulties. The fact that the Serbian List does not enter into the combinations of any political bloc to make the government means that there are 10 votes short of anyone who intends to make the government”, Pajarizi points out.

Free Europe Radio made efforts to contact AAK and Initiative officials, but they were calm.

But, the head of the Initiative, Fatmir Limaj, held a meeting with LDK chairman Lumir Abdixhiku on Monday. They didn't want to tell the media what they talked about.

Fear of government?

Despite expectations that early parliamentary elections could produce a change in the numbers of political parties in the Assembly, the country is estimated to again risk entering an institutional crisis if they do not demonstrate political will for co-operation.

Such co-operation would be more than necessary, Arifi says, because early parliamentary elections would also determine contenders for the three highest state positions.

In this direction, according to Arifi, compromise among political parties is necessary, which will be impossible without a correct language of Albanian political parties during the election campaign.

“Synim will be the creation of the major Albanian coalition, regardless of which parties it will be, because it resolves all three main nodes -- the prime minister, the prime minister and the president. Therefore, all parties, regardless of which Vetevendosje, The PDK, or LDK, will be obliged to co-operate, depending on coalitions”, Arifi says.

A possible coalition between two or more major parties views Pajarizi as a solution.

But he is sceptical that such a coalition could happen even after possible early elections.

Paris expects both current political blocks -- the LVV on the one hand -- and the LDK's PDK on the other -- to win about 40 per cent of the vote from the election.

The two taxis, according to him, lack the political will to form government, even if that is possible.

The “neither of the political forces, as alone, has the courage to take over the country's leadership, as they fear what tomorrow will bring, in terms of dialogue with Serbia. Would you be put in front of the unit "take it or leave it," which would then be a very big responsibility and would sink a government not too broadly based”, says Pacarizi.

As a result, he adds, the country risks entering an institutional agony even after early evental elections, in the event there is no interference on the part of the partner countries and Kosovo allies.

This intervention does not mean helping to make the government. But, it means giving, respectively taking guarantees, for the road away, for what awaits and how the new government should behave and act --” -- estimates goodarizi.

He adds that in this direction, the necessary will be a broad-based government and a consensual president, who should not necessarily have party affiliation. /Periscopi/