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Periskopi(8 months ago)
(8 months ago)Analyst Shenoll Muharremi has estimated that the Vetevendosje Movement is going through a clear phase following its electoral peak in 2021, when it had reached over 50 percent of the vote. He has stressed that despite strong support in recent elections with 42.3 per cent of the vote, Albin Kurti has not achieved [...]
Analyst Shenoll Muharremi has estimated that the Vetevendosje Movement is going through a clear phase following its electoral peak in 2021, when it had reached over 50 percent of the vote.
He has stressed that despite strong support in recent elections with 42.3 per cent of the vote, Albin Kurti has failed to form the ruling majority, which, according to him, indicates that the political formula built on logic “or all or nothing” is failing. Muharrem likens this approach to a “political “concension”, where losses are repeated due to lack of reflection and political calculations.
According to him, current trends show that LVV support at the national level is balanced between 30 percent and 35 percent, while local level is up to 25 percent. He stresses that Kurti's party is unlikely to win the absolute majority in the upcoming elections, as even other major parties do not see it as a reliable partner. “LVV has to stop, reflect and reform if it wants to return to growth,” has finished Muharremi.
Full announcement:
Kurti's political casino and formula that is destroying LVV
When you can't form the majority and the government with all that 400,000 votes of 42.3%, how do you think you can win another election when your national trend confirmed is on the decline?
This is a big problem in Kurt's understanding of the LVV, because this party is on a national decline trend. There were 50.2% (crowd in 2021), where correction and contraction began. In the February 9th election, it was 42.3%, while only a few months later, it dropped to 40%, and then 37%.
In local elections, it has won around 28% for the mayor and 21.31% for the Communist Assembly. The average LVV support in the 12 October local elections has been around 25%.
The LVV today is in a process of balancing where it is requiring its real stability and level, located somewhere between national and local support (about 35%). The national level is in correction and decline and at the local level is consolidating.
But even if we assume that it keeps the current level of last measurement at national level, again. LVV is far, far away, to win majority or 51%. This is impossible according to trends and most rational and reliable indicators.
This shows a situation like in casinos when you, because of your neglect and risk failure, are losing everything you've earned (such as the 400,000 votes on February 9th), but you're still hoping you will win. You're already in a tunnel where there's no way back.
This analogy suggests that expectations or theory that LVV has won most of the upcoming elections are completely unrealistic and built on the framework of greed (for absolute power), like in the February 9th campaign.
So, actually, through support in elections there is no way that Kurt and LVV could form most. He can only form with partnerships and with major parties that don't like him as partners because they don't trust him anymore.
So his problem is not elections and numbers, because he had them 42.3%, but the political mentality where he is incorrectly looking for “or all or nothing and he does not accept anything but control and absolute power for himself. Albin Kurti and LVV do not understand and accept parliamentary democracy as something to share power with others and that without having 51% or parliamentary majority, there is nothing even though you are a credit winner in numbers.
Therefore, LVV is unlikely to win 51%, but will surely continue its path to correction and contraction. This trend at the national level will likely continue towards 30%-35%, and then to the region 20%-25%, until LVV stops, reflects, reformes and thinks about its future.
