With Harris waiting for Kosovo, with Trump rioting

In the race for the first of the White House are Kamala Harris, from the Democratic Party, currently vice-president, and Donald Trump, from the Republican Party and president from 2017 to 2021.

Kosovo, over the years, has been constantly in US attention, despite its political leadership.

Vice Democrat President Bill Clinton, in 1999, the US and other NATO allies have bombed the limits of the then Yugoslav Army to stop the violence in Kosovo.

Nearly ten years later, Vice President George W. Bush, Kosovo has declared independence.

Even the current administration, attended by Harris, has repeatedly encouraged Kosovo to normalise relations with Serbia, as a condition to move forward on the road to European integration, while Trump as president has witnessed the signing of an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia on normalising economic relations.

For Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, the outcome of the November 5th elections appears to have few consequences for continued co-operation and partnership. He remains convinced that his commitment to engage with leaders of different political backgrounds will continue.

I am prime minister of the Republic of Kosovo and co-operate with heads of states that are on all sides of the political spectrum. This as prime minister. As chairman of the Vetevendosje Movement, of course I am social-democrat, I am democratic and I have nothing new to add”, Kurti said at a press conference in Pristina.

For analysts in the United States, the situation will not be that simple. Initially, with the war in Ukraine, the Middle East conflict and territorial conflict in the South China Sea, Kosovo will not penetrate the agenda, according to them.

Then, there are two completely different candidates with no experience in the Western Balkans and the Trump known for transactional access, or I buy it.

Frank Wisner, former US member of Kosovo's status, tells of Radio Free Europe's Expose programme that Kosovo's biggest problem is the dispute with Serbia, which continues to recognise its independence, even nearly 17 years after the proclamation.

Wesner doesn't expect any moves in this direction if Harris is elected president.

I assume the Harris administration would pursue less ambitious goals. It would make efforts to lower Kosovo and Serbia at a table, along with Europeans, but aim at smaller advances in economy, trade, culture, human movements... So in things that start to reduce the temperature between the two countries, Says Wisner.

David Phillips, director of the Peace Building and Human Rights Programme at Columbia University, shares similar views of Harris.

He does not expect any significant action by it regarding relations between Kosovo and Serbia.

It is backed up by rule of law and human rights. Therefore, we will likely note this not only in Kosovo but throughout the world. We can expect it to become the champion of the rule of law and of the fight against Kleptocracy”, Phillips says.

For Trump, expectations are obviously more disturbing. Both experts fear that his approach <x0 transactional” could lead to unpredictable and potentially dangerous consequences for Kosovo's future.

Wisner does not rule out the possibility of Trump exploring Kosovo's partition as a quick solution to its continuing conflict with Serbia.

“If he sees any agreement with [Serbia's president, Aleksandar] Vuciq, who adapts, will not expect Kosovo to obey. It will be transactional, in search of an agreement, in search of progress, in search of something that makes it look good. Kosovo must be skillful, to make sure it has strong support from Europeans, but its journey may be difficult”Says Wisner.

Wisner recalls that an agreement on exchange of territories between Kosovo and Serbia, along ethnic lines, was outlined in 2020, during Trump's first presidential mandate.

But, the plan has not gone forward after then Kosovo President Hashim Thaci has been handed over to the Special Court in The Hague as a war crimes suspect.

Phillips also says that Trump sees partitioning of Kosovo as a quick solution to its troubled ethnic relations, and that, according to him, would not only destabilise Kosovo but also open the Pandora Box in other multiethnic Balkan states, such as Northern Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Serbia.

If Trump is elected, we are likely to see a major change in the approach of the United States. Trump has financial interests in the Balkans. He has interests proven in transactions in favour of the US”It says Phillips on Expose.

In September of this year, Trump's eldest son, Donald Jr., has dined with Serbian businessmen in Belgrade to discuss investment opportunities.

Similarly, in May, Trump's groom, Jared Kouchner, has contracted with the state of Serbia for the construction of a luxury hotel at the site of a former military base in Belgrade.

Richard Green, who at the time of the Trump administration was US representative in the Kosovo-Kosovo dialogue. Serbia and has been pushing ahead of the territorial exchange agreement, has also developed close relations with Serbia's Government.

In 2023, Vuciq shared that Order of the Serbian Flag, saying that Grenelli “was among the few people in the US who had balanced access to Kosovo”.

Donald Trump Jr. named Grenelli the “chief contender for the post of Secretary of State”, if his father would take the White House wheel.

For Wisner, that wouldn't be good news.

I don't want to ring too hard, but I think he's done a huge damage to American foreign policy in the region, coming up with ideas that haven't been accessible to”, He says.

During the presidency, Trump and his administration have warned on several occasions even of the possibility of attracting American troops from Kosovo. Their presence within the framework of NATO's peacekeeping mission, KFOR, is seen as guarantees for Kosovo's security.

Phillips warns significant consequences in this regard if Trump is re-elected.

One of the first things Trump will do is assess American politics and security interests. I would expect that [American military base in Kosovo] Bondsteel was gradually eliminated. Also, any step to bring Kosovo into NATO would be suspended”, Phillips says.

Wisner argues that American forces fulfill a double role in Kosovo, acting not only as protective, but also as a symbol of US engagement.

It's not good to think that the issues of this nature last forever. But, given the unresolved state of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, I hope American troops will continue to be part of the security regime in which Kosovo” lives.Says Wisner.

The opinions of some citizens surveyed by Radio Free Europe in Pristina closely match those of analysts. Most believe that Harris' presidency, unlike Trump, would preserve the spirit of stability.

I think Harris would be better. Even for Kosovo, I think it would be better. It would help because we need help. As Clinton helped us... And Trump is more aggressive, I guess it wouldn't help Kosovo”, Says Naser Les.

Vjosa Thaci believes the <x0 selections will be won by Trump”.

“... even though Harris is the preferred candidate for us Albanians. This, for the fact that it belongs to the traditional party that we Kosovo Albanians always support”, according to her.

[Harris] has been best for the people, for the American economy, for the multipollarity America has. Harris has not shown rejection of other communities, like Trump who opposes foreigners and demands sanctions against them. Even to the world, [Haris] seems to have a more liberal attitude”, says Bujar Tracy.

With a candidate who has not had Kosovo in her career portfolio and an unpredictable candidate in decisions, it remains unclear whether Kosovo will continue to have a constructive ally in the US, or face new obstacles.

The race between them is extremely close.

In the words of Ambassador Frank Wisner, Kosovo must be patient to focus on building economic capacities and improving governance, without illusions that it will soon be recognised by Serbia and will open roads for EU and UN integration.