What will happen to Wagner's body after Prigozhi's death

The soldiers of Prigozhin's body were deported to Belarus after the first two months of uprising. Their leader is probably dead now, but what will happen to them?

How the head of the notorious body, Wagner, Yegvenij Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin likely lost their lives on a plane crash on the road from Moscow to St. Petersburg is still unclear. A few days after the disaster, there is still no clarity at a time that nearly no one believes in an accident. Even though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed speculation about an order murder from the Kremlin as “lying”.

For Russia's close ally, Belarus is now asked; What will happen to a part of the Wagner militia who were sent there after the failure of the Pigozin-initiated rebellion? It's between 4,000 and 5,000 armed militia known for their brutal style of war, and it's been used in Belarus as instructors.

Some can stay in Belarus

The current history of the Prigozhin private army Wagner is over, says historian for Eastern Europe at the University of Dusseldorf, Alexander Friedman. “Wagner fighters will stay in Africa or Belarus, however.” The body will continue to exist, “probably with a different name. But it will enter into the power of the Ministry of Defense”. The Belarusian shipyard, Alexander Lukashenko, would willingly keep some of the fighters and integrate them into its own troops, Friedmann says. He would have funds for 3,000 warriors, but Moscow's last word. ”

But a complete withdrawal of the body from Belarus is not in Russia's interest. This would reduce tensions at the border with Poland and Lithuania, where soldiers in EU countries are perceived as threats are deployed. But much of it will be sent to Russia or Africa, the scholar believes.

Lukashenko without interest in keeping?

Otherwise you think Alexander Klaskovskij, analyst in the independent Belarus project, “Pisrk”. Lukashenko has no interest in a Wagner troupe in Belarus. Soldiers are without head, and the fate of the strong combat force with political ambitions is suspicious. Both Putin and Lukashenko have the interest of keeping this body as small as possible. For another reason. The EU and NATO would completely block the border with Belarus, which would greatly aggravate relations with European neighbours. Even this is an inappropriate “” for Lucashenconi, Klaskovski says.

According to Valeriy Sahashsek, a member of the political party that lives in an exoci, Svtelana Tihanovska expects this body to be nothing good. He also believes that some of the soldiers will stay in Belarus. Because Russia has interest in provocations on borders with the EU and sabotage acts in Ukraine.” But the funding issue remains one of the most important.

The deportation to Belarus has been a temporary solution to “Wagner's problem of the Russian leadership”, Grigiri Niskov, from the Finland Institute for International Relations, adds. It makes no sense “as tactical nor strategically keeping them in Belarus”. According to Niskov by the end of the year, this body will leave Belarus.

Alexander Klaskovskii believes that. This body was once raised against Putin, and he no longer trusts the militia. That's why they'll probably spread. “Some will return to civil life, others will go to Africa. ”