Why are Russia and Ukraine fighting so hard for Bahmut?

Over 90 percent of residents have fled, most of the city is under ruins, tens of thousands of people have been killed, and strategic importance has been minimized by Pentagon and NATO chiefs. But Russia and Ukraine are continuing to fight for the small town of Bahmut.

After almost eight months of international war, Ukrainian forces are surrounded by three sides, Kiev's supply lines are decreasing, and Moscow controls almost half of Bahmut. However, Ukraine has pledged to double the city's defence, despite the fact that both sides are undergoing high casualties.

Some Western military analysts have suggested there would be more meaning for Ukrainian forces to withdraw and establish a new defence line, but Kiev has so far shown no indication it will do so.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has described the “Bahmut Forum” as a symbol of the challenge, which is bleeding the Russian army.

For Moscow, the fall of the city she calls by the name of the Soviet era, Artimomovsk, would be the first major victory since mid-2022 and would be a push for its broad fight against Ukraine. Moscow has also claimed to be destroying Ukrainian forces in this city.

What is Bahmut?

This town is located in the Ukrainian region of Donjeck, which is part of the Donbas region, where mostly Russian-speaking people live. This region, Moscow wants to annex through “special military operation”, as it calls the invasion of Ukraine.

Prior to the start of the war, the town had 70,000, but Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereschuk said this month that fewer than 4,000 civilians, including 38 children, are now in town.

Recalling World War I, the Battle for Bahmut has been fought by slats with ruthless artillery and rocket attacks on a heavily mined battlefield. There was house - to - house fighting in Bahmut.

The city has witnessed massacres even earlier: During World War II, Nazi invading forces gathered 3,000 Jews into a mine and killed them.

The murder zone?

The images of the battlefields filled with corpses on both sides have appeared in social media, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the group of Russian mercenaries Wagner, which constitutes a major force in combat, has published a photograph of his dead fighters.

The numbers of the number of victims are classified, but American officials have estimated that tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, many of them prisoners, who were recruited by Wagner, have been killed. Thousands of Ukrainian troops are believed to have been killed as well.

Zelensky said on 12 March that his army killed over 1,000 Russians near Bahmut last week and injured another 1,500. The same day, Russia's Defence Ministry said Russian forces have killed over 220 Ukrainian soldiers east of Ukraine within 24 hours.

Zelensky's deputy, Mykhailo Podolyak, said Ukraine is fighting in Bahmut because the battle is targeting Russia's best units and degrading them ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive planned for spring.

Konrad Muzyka, military analyst from Poland who has recently visited Bahmut, said it no longer makes sense to maintain control of this city.

The decision to protect Bahmut now is political and non-military decision”, Muzyka told Reuters. He added that he looked at military prism, the scale and cost of Ukrainian losses are now higher than the benefits of keeping the city in check.

Rob Lee, who was on the same trip, wrote on Twitter that there is still good reason for Ukraine to continue to protect Bahmut because its ability to cause major enemy losses had weakened after Russian forces took over the northern wing of the city last month.

Trampoline for Russia?

The centre of regional transportation and logistics, Bahmut, would be useful to Russian forces, though it depends on how much of this city's infrastructure has remained unbroken.

Most importantly, taking this city would give Russia the opportunity to advance to two other major cities in the Donjeck region: Kramatorsk and Slovansk.

Both of these cities are in the range of the Russian artillery field. Moscow needs to control both cities to complete what it calls “the liberation” of the Donjecke People's Republic”.

During this month, Zelensky told CNN he fears the Russian forces will have “open road” for the two cities if they take Bahmut. He said his order to keep the city of Bahmut was a tactical decision.

The town of Casiv Jar, located west of Bahmut, would probably be the next location to face the Russian attack, although this city is located at a high altitude and Ukrainian forces are believed to have built fortifications near this city.

Analysts and Western diplomats have voiced sceptical that Russian forces could benefit very quickly from taking Bahmut, given how long they have fought in this city. Russian forces have promoted Bahmut since May of last year and have launched ground attacks in August.

Russia's chaotic retreat from Ukraine's northeast last year has also left it without territory that would make it easier for its forces to take control of cities like Sloveniansk, after they had control of Bahmut.

Psychological push?

For Russia, victory in Bahmut would be a moral boost, as since last year it has faced a series of defeats.

For Ukraine, the loss of Bahmut would be a moral blow even if, as its allies have said, it may not make any major strategic difference.

Both Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and that of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, has as symbolicly downplayed Bahmut, as have Western military experts.

In view of Bahmut's importance for Kiev, Zelensky, during his December visit to the United States, presented the American Congress with a battle flag signed by city defenders.

Keeping the city helps preserve support from Western states, proving that this city is making a difference, said Michael Koufman, expert for the Russian Army at the US-based CAN research centre.

If the city falls, Ukraine can be comforted by the fact that it has maintained it by Russian forces as long as it can and has caused great losses to Russia, suggesting that any Russian efforts to get more territory will have the same costs.

Victory for Wagner?

Taking the city would be an incentive to raise profiles for the group of Russian mercenaries, Wagner, and the founder of this group, Prigozhin, who is eager for publicity.

The 61-year-old former convict and magati, who is sanctioned by the West, has been trying to win favor with Putin and overcome his success in the battlefield in political influence.

As increasing evidence suggests that the Kremlin is acting to curb what it sees as an excessive political influence on Pigozin, no one can object that Wagner mercenaries, including convicts who have been recruited by Pigozin, have played a major role in field attacks.

Some Western military experts believe Ukraine's goal is to destroy Wagner as a war force in Bahmut so that this group of mercenaries will not be able to rapidly fill the ranks to pose a threat elsewhere in the near future.

If Bahmut is taken away, Wagner will be a highly degraded force and his ability to withstand attacks on Russian positions, it will be a controversial matter”, Polish analyst Muzyka said.

General Oleksandri Syrskyi, commander of the Ukrainian Land Forces, during his visit to Bahmut on March 11th said Kiev has good reason to maintain control of this city.

The “Heros of this city are now defenders who are holding the eastern front on their shoulders and causing maximum losses to the enemy”, he said before troops fighting at Bahmut.

“Bahmut's defense gives the chance to accumulate reserves and prepare for the spring counterensive, which is not that far from”, he added.