The end of the Russian Empire? More than Putin's fate is being played in Ukraine

By Walter Russell Mead “Wall Street Journal”

As Russia and Ukraine are preparing for what may be the biggest tank battle in Europe since World War II, the future of the war launched by Vladimir Putin remains impossible to predict.

Mobilising large-scale tanks and artillery on the flat terrain of eastern Ukraine could favour Moscow, and the heavy weight of the Russian military machine could bring territorial benefits.

But other results are possible. Ukrainian courage, their great tactical ability in the field, and access to Western weapons and equipment can produce another series of humiliating obstacles to Russia.

Putin's worst scenario would be for Russia's war in Ukraine to end with a sweeping military defeat, with the fall of pro-Russian enclaves in Donbas and Moldova, as well as Ukraine's integration into the West.

Such a loss would be more than personal humiliation for his career as a politician. It would also cause a major psychological and strategic shock to Russia's position and self-imagement. It would change the course of Russian history.

Russia would not be the first former Emperor to face a moment of account before history. The loss of Spain in 1898 in front of the new US state was a crucial moment in Spanish history. The global empire that shaped Spain from Columbus's expeditions had suddenly disappeared, and the Spaniards began questioning everything from the monarchy to the role of the church.

For Britain and France, their humiliating failure during the 1956 Suez Depression forced both countries to realize that they were no longer a global independent force. The glory of the former empires was over, and two former soldiers began with pain and unwillingness to adapt to their new circumstances.

A crucial Russian failure in Ukraine could bring the same situation to Moscow. If Russia fails to conquer the hearts of Ukraine (Western Ukraine is less of a problem in Russian historical mythology), the Russians will not be able to avoid the conclusion that the emperor of the people, built at great cost over many centuries, and restored by Lenin and Stalin after the disaster of World War I, has declined irrevocably.

This will force Russia to undergo a kind of deep self-reflection, just as other former scholars do. The consequences will be enormous. Under the rule of Romanoves, Communists, and now Putin's, Russian political thought has been shaped by three beliefs: that Russia is different, that change is transcedentically important, and that it gives Russia a unique role in world history.

Loss in Ukraine would basically undermine trust in these ideas, dipped Russia into an identity crisis with unpredictable political consequences. The Cars, Communist commissioners, and today Putins saw Russia as unique and devoted to a fight against the West.

For the Czars, Moscow was the third “van”, which would carry the torch of Christianity and civilization, as the first Rome fell into the hands of barbarian invaders, and the second Rome (Kostandinopo) fell to the Turks.

For the communists, Moscow was the stronghold of the global proletar revolution, destined to destroy the decadent debt culture of the West. Putin and his associates look alike. Russia, they say, is engaged in a struggle for survival against Western decade, wickedness and rampant greed.

To keep herself in the race equal to the most developed West, and to ensure proper governance for its unique psychic Russia, they have always argued with its rulers, had to focus power at the helm.

Only a leader as strong as Catherine the Great, Stalin, or as his fans as Putin say, could enable Russia to dominate its confrontation with the West. The bottom line is Ukraine. With Ukraine under control, Moscow views itself as the greatest power in Europe.

Without Ukraine, the dream that Russia can regain the status of the Soviet Union as a superpower will suffer a bitter end. Worse still: perhaps from the perspective of the theories of “euroazitics” and radical Russian nationalists, who give a kind of legitimacy to Putin's regime, a victory of Orthodox Ukraine, Slavic and democratic over despotic Russia, would not only challenge Vladimir Putin's personal legitimacy.

Rather, it would challenge the idea of Russian distinctness, and would fatally undermine the view that despotism is the form of government that best fits the Russian soul. As war highlights the evil and natural cruelty of Putin's regime, and while atrocities abroad and depression within Russia are leaving more and more traces, it is impossible not to hope for a Russian defeat in this war.

However, caution is needed. Putin and those around him know that in Ukraine they are not fighting for just one border adjustment. They are fighting for their world, so it may be psychologically impossible for them to accept defeat, until any measure, however ruthless, or any weapon, no matter how hated, is used to the full. For Vladimir Putin and the people around him, the dangers in Ukraine are endlessly great. /Abcnews. al