Will the war be fought in Ukraine, Sweden and NATO member Finland?

In Sweden and Finland, allegations of NATO membership commitment are quickly dispelled. The reason is the unprotested intervention in Vladimir Putin's Ukraine troops. A recently conducted survey in Sweden makes clear the radical twist in public perception: 41 per cent of Swedes and Swedes now talk about a NATO membership, 35 per cent oppose and 24 per cent are undecided. For the first time, most are expressed in favour of a membership in this alliance.

In Finland this turn is even clearer. For the first time since NATO's establishment, most Finnishs prefer the country's membership in this alliance. Until recently there were 24 per cent to 28 per cent pro. Now a few weeks later most of the 53 per cent say pro. A truly surprising turn of view, notes in the conversation for DW, Henry Vanhanen, adviser to the foreign policy of the Finnish opposition party “National Union Party”.

This change of public opinion is surprising, because for many years the figures have been unchanged, however, because of domestic politics the Swedish government will probably continue to be reserved towards a NATO membership, explains Anna Wieslander, head of the Stockholm Security and Development Policy Institute.

“The parties related to this issue have completely opposite positions. On the one hand, right-oriented parties are for a NATO membership. But Social Democrats and ecologists oppose, as well as the right-wing populists of Sweden, the third party in the country, also oppose”, the Wieslander.

The director of the Northern Europe Department in Atlantic Council and the Secretary General of the Swedish Defence Association, Allmänna Försvarsförengen, adds: “To create a parliamentary majority, parties should be reorient soon and this is not always easy. ”

Close Military Reports

Both Sweden and Finland renounced the doctrine of the neutrality of the Cold War when they joined the European Union. But the role outside the military blocs continued despite increased co-operation and interoperarition of these two countries with NATO in the past ten years. Bilateral relations with the United States are very deep. In addition, there is a trilateral agreement between the United States, Sweden and Finland, and since 2014. Sweden has entered into a deep partnership with NATO”, explains DW, Zebul Carlander, defence analyst and co-author of the book “Strategic Chooses the Futre of Swedish Security”

This partnership enables Sweden to co-operate with NATO and participate in military exercises. If Sweden is conducting military training, other NATO countries, particularly the US, also participate.

Both Sweden and Finland, according to Vanhanen, take advantage of this defence partnership, but maybe now it's time to take the next step: “I think, we should look at this issue from another perspective and maybe climb to a new degree.”

Sweden reinforces presence in Gottland

Last week eight allies, based on threats perceiveing their security, initiated NATO consultations based on Article 4. In these consultations, it was concluded, that Sweden and Finland must receive intelligence information, to be better able to assess the situation in Ukraine. Russia classified the Scandinavian countries' alleged NATO efforts as a threat and has declared they will react, respectively. Both Sweden and Finland have caused indignation.

Swedish-Finnish Symbiosis

In the background of the war in Ukraine, cards are getting mixed up. As for defence and security issues, Sweden and Finland have long been strategically linked. If one country is striving for NATO membership, most likely the same will do the same, experts like Vanhanen and Carlander are convinced.

The flagrant and unprohibited attack on Ukraine has forced Finland to reconsider its position. “We need to re-evaluate and reconfirm the Russian threat. I think it's not excessive to think that Russia poses a military threat to Finland” as well, fears Vanhanen.

Finland and Sweden are reevaluating their security and defence policy. “Pictish because Russia threatens and shocks its neighbour, countries like Sweden and Finland hold a discussion with NATO”, Carlander points out. “What Sweden will take is only a matter of government, parliament and population. ”

“prepared for all possible”

An example of the new perspective is Sweden's decision to supply Ukrainian armies with weapons, including 5,000 armoured vehicles. This significant decision, according to Carlander, is unprecedented recently: “Such military support Sweden and Finland have not guaranteed since the 1939 Winter War between Finland and the Soviet Union.” Finland will supply Ukraine with 2,500 machine guns, 150,000 rounds, 1500 antitank defence weapons and 70,000 camping vehicles.

When does membership come?

How soon can Sweden and Finland be admitted to NATO? He praised this in early February, Wolf Cristersson, chairman of the Swedish opposition Moderaterna party, who voiced conviction that his country could join NATO within the next five years.

The war in Ukraine will spur the advancement of these developments. But perhaps even the early parliamentary elections in Sweden can change political forces reports by creating further polarisation, which could slow down such a process, Wieslander thinks. Vanhanen is optimistic. that in Finland this could happen sooner: “I believe, that this would be possible within a few months. In the worst case next year. ” / DW