Kosovo-Serbia dialogue under shadow of war in Ukraine

However, according to them, the approach of the West to Kosovo-Serbia dialogue and the orientation of this approach will depend on the epilogue of developments in Ukraine.

They express the opinion that it is early to talk about what this epilogue will be and until this war lasts, as they estimate, the focus of the West will be on managing the security situation, including in the Western Balkans.

Consequently, as they say, for now no focused Western energy is expected regarding Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, during his visit to Pristina on March 10th, when she met with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, has said Serbia and Kosovo should continue dialogue on normalising relations, which is held in Brussels through the European Union.

The same message she repeated on 11 March, during her visit to Belgrade, where she met with Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq.

“We need visible progress in dialogue, in normalising relations between Kosovo and Serbia”, Baerbox said.

Maliqi: West awaits possible positioning of Serbia

Kosovo political development acquaintance Agon Maliqi, simultaneously cofounder of blog “The approach of the European Union and the United States to Kosovo-Serbia dialogue will depend on the nature of the war epilogue in Ukraine, whether Russia's success in this war.

He estimates that if Russia places control over Ukraine for a long time, then the Western Balkans remain a security alert zone for the West.

On the contrary, in the event of Russia's eventual withdrawal from Ukraine, then Russia's weight and power of influence in the Western Balkans will drop and a dynamic integration of the countries of the region can follow, which opens the potential for Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

Everything at this moment remains speculation. But, what is clear from German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock's orders, but also from orders coming from the United States, namely from Victoria Nuland, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, as well as from Mrs. Karen Donfrees, US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, show there is an effort or a waiting for Serbia's possible position in the new circumstances. Then, from that point on, Serbia's Western report may even be determining the fate of the” dialogue, Maliqi said.

Gogic: All scenarios are possible

Politologist Ognjen Gogic says the current situation in Ukraine and a possible epilogue there, whatever it is, will affect the Western approach and, in particular, the EU towards the Western Balkans, including Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

According to him, various logical scenarios can be presented.

Serbia is the only country here that has not imposed sanctions on Russia, and now Serbia is subject to pressure. But, on the other hand, the European Union cannot be too tough with pressure, in order not to risk losing Serbia entirely. In this situation, all scenarios are possible. For its part, the EU could insist that as soon as agreement is reached between Belgrade and Pristina, so that Kosovo and Serbia become part of the European Union and perhaps even NATO. But if they face resistance from local players, they won't be able to put much pressure, precisely because Serbia doesn't leave even more”, Gogic said.

“The challenge for Kosovo and its rigid position”

Agon Maliqi, estimates that whoever the epilogue of the war in Ukraine, in principle, Serbia's strength and possibility of conditioning towards the West is weakened and blackmail that Serbia will return to Russia, as the EU alternative, will lose its weight.

In this context, according to him, the Western influence power over Serbia grows, which will be positive for Serbia itself, but also for the region.

Maliqi stresses that this would present an opportunity for Kosovo to complete the process of dialogue, but also the challenge for it, in the context where the West can have more understanding of Serbia's position and its domestic political difficulties.

“Therefore, in principle, I see Serbia's possible return to the West as positive for the region, but also for Kosovo. But, not even without challenges for Kosovo, in case it remains in its present, rigid position and with moments even to confront the West”, Maliqi said.

“Vucciq will not jeopardise”

Politologist Gogic, suggests that for Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vuciq, there is actually a <x0-grejs-peridge” until the outcome of the presidential and parliamentary elections, which are held April 3rd in Serbia.

This is a service rendered to him by the EU as a sign of understanding, because far-right groups exist in Serbia, which have pro-rus orientation. After the elections, he says, the EU will expect Vuciq to be tougher in its attitudes towards Russia.

But, Gogic estimates that even after the elections in Serbia, Vuciq will not change the up-to-date position and will continue the <x0-> landing policy on two <x1 minute chairs, meanwhile, the West will not react sharply due to fears that Serbia does not slip towards overall orientation towards Russia.

Even this situation, according to him, can affect the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue process.

I think the dialogue is not offered to reach agreement. In Serbia, there is sympathy for (Russian president Vladimir) Putin and his policies. I don't know how many of those powerful groups are, but those pro-Russian or pro-Putin groups would criticise President Vuciq if he made concessions to Kosovo. I think I would face the powerful right opposition in Serbia, so I don't believe he is inclined to risk, not even after elections”, Gogic said.

The last meeting within the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue took place on 22 February, where chief negotiators of technical issues -- Kosovo's Besnik Bislimi and Serbia's Petar Petkov -- have held bilateral meetings with EU officials, but there has not been a joint meeting between them.

The new round of talks on February 22nd took place after a relatively long time without meetings, except those of experts on car license plates.

Dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, with EU mediation, started in 2011. / REL/