Serbia awaiting Russian Emissar, Janjic: Putin may force Vucinciqi to recognise Srpska

Following Russia's President Vladimir Putin's decision to recognise the independence of two regions in Ukraine, Serbian analyst Dusan Janic has commented on what developments in the Serbia-Kosovo-Russia report could be and what Belgrade can expect under the new circumstances.

Janic has recalled that what Russia has done has happened for the first time.

Russia has already done so with South Ossetia and Abkhazia on Georgia's territory. First he formed pre-state entities, then recognized him as a state. This is the same scenario that is being repeated now” has said Janic.

When it comes to principles, Janic says that Russia takes advantage of the principles in which they counter it.

When it needs to veto Belgrade on behalf of implementation of the Ahtisaari Plan and the change of Resolution 1244, then Russia swears in Serbia's territorial integrity, it does not recognise the session. So Russia must immediately distinguish from China, which is always on this principle and has never done what Russia does. While Russia often cites Kosovo as a Sui geners for what it agrees with the West, it says it can be used as precedent. And she now uses it as a precedent. In essence, it is creating these states on the basis of the Kosovo precedent” says Janic.

Asked about the position of Serbia or Alexander Vuciq, under these circumstances, Janzic says Serbia should think about all of this, separately whether it is veto, in which it has sworn Vuciq and others, has really helped Serbia and whether it is clear that Russia is not a friend, because it has now abandoned the content of what the veto has protected.

“The consequences can be such that by this Dodik can be encouraged to form his own entity, which, to some extent, exists but is not known, and then put pressure on Vucikis to recognize. We'll see these days when Putin's emissary comes up with what instructions for operation will bring Vuciqi. If Vuciq goes that way, then, in fact, he goes towards what is called the Allied bloc of Russia and Putin, and that means he will face harsh answers from the EU, America and all of Putin's opponents, in this and other” crisis has said Janjic.

Janzic says Russia will put pressure on Vuciqi because it considers he owes them.

We know that much of the Serbian uncle's date has gone to Donbas and participated in political -propagandistic activities. There is also much of the volunteers who fight on Russia's side. The country has been in crisis since 2006, but has in no way reacted to”.

According to him, the West will react severely with sanctions and will ask Serbia to join them and decide where it stands.

But will Serbia do that, Janjic says Serbia does not currently exist as a state.

There's a man to make the decision. It is certain that with sanctions on Russia, Serbia would lose in an economic sense because we are dependent on oil and gas. To this end, it has come with corrupting agreements and the intra-strategic spread of the gas pipeline through Serbia and leaving aside hydropower and other forms of energy and full orientation to buy gas from Russia. That's the first medium-term consequence, and I think it takes a few years for recovery. The next result would be smaller. The stories of Serbian exports to Russia are fairy tales because it is at the level of negligible figures. The same is true of Russian investments. Our public debt to Russia involves only gas and oil, and for the reason that Russia has released the little oil market we have” he said.

Janzic says Kosovo is adding to the arguments and is opening the doors to seek recognition from Russia, while stressing that Belgrade must think whether it should still maintain this dependence through energy and security on behalf of Kosovo.