Can Europe survive if Russia cuts off gas supply?

In a joint statement issued last week, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Joe Biden pledged close co-operation for energy security.

And after a recent meeting with European energy ministers in France, Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said the bloc is negotiating with partners like Azerbaijan for the potential for increasing gas supplies to the continent.

If in the worst scenario Russian gas stops the entire flow into Europe, measures to replace supply will not be enough, according to a study by Brussels-based Institute “Bruegel” published last week, writes EuronewsHe's following in on Telegrafie.

It concludes that there are two challenges for Europe: finding a replacement for Russian gas supplies and containing domestic demand to cope with storm, economic and social.

One of the authors, Simone Tagliapietatra, told Euronews that Europe could head towards a 1970s-style oil crisis scenario.

Some “factories may need to operate at a shorter production time or to close down by”.

And governments may need to create an emergency plan to give priority to gas beneficiaries, for example, for <x0).

What if Russian gas supplies are interrupted in the coming months?

In this direction, as stated further, there are three scenarios:

If Russia and all other suppliers continue to supply at current levels, EU-wide storage would reach a minimum of about 320 teravats ( TWh) in April 2022.

If Russia cuts supplies in early February, storage will reach a minimum level of 140 TWh in April 2022.

If in addition to cutting off the supply from Russia, the weather is extremely cold, then storage across the EU will be empty by the end of March 2022.

Therefore, in the short term, the EU will likely be able to survive a dramatic break in Russian gas imports.

Can the European pipeline system maintain additional gas supplies?

Yes and no. The Iberian Peninsula, for example, is a centre for LNG import terminals (genuine natural gas; gas that has cooled in liquid for safety and storage and transport).

As a result, the region can import 40 TWh per month, but can consume only 30 TWh.

The challenge is to transport excess gas to the rest of Europe, as existing pipelines allow for a maximum transfer of 5 TWh a month, writes Euronews, sends in Telegrafi.

Furthermore, the Central and Eastern European pipeline system is designed to bring imports from birth to the latest consumers.

Despite investments in reverse capacity and new pipelines, if there were too much gas from the West, pipeline barriers could prevent enough shipments to the most eastern parts of the EU or Ukraine.

What other provisions would be available?

In principle, existing infrastructure allows additional volumes of import from Norway and North Africa, and additional volumes of LNG, which can jointly shift current imports from Russia.

But while having infrastructure is one thing, having gas is another.

Norway has already announced it is providing as much as it can in the EU and that the global LNG markets are very limited “ ” Algeria said something like that.

In addition, domestic EU gas production is limited, both in the Netherlands and elsewhere.

On the other hand, Washington is currently negotiating with Qatar for gas supplies to Europe.

Qatar is one of LNG's biggest producers. It sells three quarters of its production in Asian countries and provides about five percent of Europe's gas.

What if Russian gas supplies stop for years?

To spend half the winter without Russian imports may be difficult, but running the European economy for several years without Russian gas would be extremely challenging.

While there is more time to prepare, there are also far higher volumes to move on.

In 2021, Russian natural gas exports to the EU reached about 1700 TWh this would have to be replaced if Russia fully banned natural gas exports to Europe.

EU has reserve import capacity of about 1,800 TWh of alternative suppliers. This could theoretically allow the EU to completely replace Russian flows.

But at best it would be very expensive, and in the worst case physically and politically impossible.