Coronervirus ' effects, World Bank: Up to 150 thousand people in Kosovo could fall into poverty

In the Western Balkans, according to the World Bank, one more and one less will be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, writes news.net.

According to this study, the effects on poverty in Kosovo are likely to be great, many people are expected to lose their jobs, and especially seasonal workers and employees in the informal sector.

Furthermore, this study says that between 57 thousand and 148 thousand people in Kosovo could fall into poverty.

With economic activity cuts and the drastic decline of remittances as a result of COVID-19, it is likely that the effects on poverty in Kosovo are significant. A large number of individuals are expected to lose their jobs, especially those with short-term contracts, seasonal workers and employees in the informal sector. Kosovo has a large construction sector, which is especially sensitive since it represents an important source of income for poor and vulnerable areas in urban areas. Indeed, the simulation carried out on this note suggests that 57,000 48,000 people could fall into poverty, while the middle class could shrink by about 100,000 people. This is equivalent to a 4-10 pp increase in the poverty scale. Although social assistance is an important source of income for the poor (about 15 percent in 2017) and will, to some extent, protect them from the effects of the crisis, more than half of the people who will fall into poverty do not benefit from any current social support program (although about 40 percent of them retire), thus increasing the need for increased coverage and perhaps the generosity of money transfer programs with the aim of facilitating effects on declining income. ”, said in the World Bank study.

Furthermore, revenues in Kosovo could also fall as a result of the decline in remittances.

Also “and other sources will likely drop due to the decline in remittances. In 2019, remittances in Western Balkan countries ranged from 2 to 10 per cent of GDP, k Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo have the highest dependence on them. Migrant workers, especially temporary or informal employees, may lose their jobs in European countries hit hard by pandemics and isolation. Some of these immigrants will return to their countries, jeopardising to remain unemployed and without social protection. Entering remittances to families in the Western Balkans will suffer decline.”, the study says.

According to the World Bank, over 400,000 people across the Western Balkan region can fall into poverty, and the middle layer can contract significantly.

According to estimates by the World Bank, in the absence of responses on the part of governments, more than 400,000 residents could fall into poverty in this region, and the middle layer could contract significantly. Many of those who may become poor are not currently taking advantage of social protection, and at risk are especially informational workers who are not covered by the security of unemployment and do not get any other kind of support.”, the study description says.

The pandemic COVID-19, according to the BB, can also have a major impact on the education sector, where a large percentage of students will quit school.

In comparison to the EU average, low and inefficient public spending per person on pre-crisis health makes this region especially vulnerable to this crisis and other public health crises in the future. The high level of air pollution in several large cities and the increasing number of respiratory diseases that accompany this pollution add to this vulnerability, especially if an outbreak again occurs next winter. Also, the necessary closure of schools to reduce the burden on the health system will result in considerable losses in learning results from which it may take years to recover: According to estimates, the percentage of people without elementary reading skills may rise from 53 percent currently at 61 percent. The impact on education will distributively affect people in unfavourable positions, and a greater percentage of students will become functional illiterates and may leave school altogether.”, the study says.

The Kosovo Finance Ministry yesterday has presented the Econonic Regeneration Pack, which envisions the introduction of 1.26 billion euros in state within 5 years.