The renowned Nobelist: Despite grim predictions about the virus, its spread will stop

The Levite did not reveal a treatment or cure, he simply did what he did best: Use the numbers.

Statistics led him to the conclusion that, contrary to grim predictions on the virus, his spread would stop.

The soothing messages that Levi sent to his friends in China were translated into Chinese and passed from one person to another, making him known to the Asian nation.

His predictions proved accurate: The number of new cases reported daily began to decline as of February 7th.

A week later, the mortality rate began to decline as well.

He may not be an expert in epidemiology, but Levi understands calculations and statistics, Calclist told a telephone interview earlier this week.

The interview was originally scheduled to be held at the Sarona complex at Tel Aviv, where the Levites currently live.

But after he had some health complications, “korona” he jokingly said that interview was conducted by the phone.

Although he believes the pandemic will continue its course, the Levitti highlights his support for all security provisions currently being taken and the need to adhere to them.

The Levites received his Nobel Prize for chemistry in 2013.

He has in no way thought of a prophet to conquer an epidemic; but everything seems to happen by chance.

His wife Shoshan Brosh is a Chinese art researcher, meaning that the couple share their time between the United States, Israel and China.

When Pandemia broke out, Brosh wrote to friends in China to support them.

When they responded to us, describing how complicated their situation was, I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers in hopes of reaching a conclusion,” explained the Levite.

This is a frightening statistic. I'm not a flu expert, but I can analyze numbers and this is the exponential growth “.

At this rate, the whole world should have been infected within 90 days, he said.

But then the tendency changed. When the Levites began to analyze the data on February 1st, Hubei had 1,800 new cases each day, and within six days that number reached 4,700, he said.

And then, on February 7th, the number of new infections began to fall in linear view and did not stop.

A week later, the same was true of the death toll.

This dramatic change marked the average point and enabled the best prediction of when the pandemic will end.

Based on this, I concluded that the situation throughout China will improve within two weeks.

And, indeed, there are very few cases of infection now. ”

The Levites compared the situation to banking interest if on the first day a person receives a interest rate of 30%, the next day gets 29% and so on.

The messages his friends translated spread quickly to China, and people who wanted to make sure that he really wrote the information to the Levite himself.

“So I knew I should continue,” he said.

I could have said, yes, and that's exactly what I did.

New cases were reported daily by various subjects, such as the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The Levites began to send regular reports to his Chinese friends, and by the popularity he gained, he was interviewed on Chinese television in QN equivalent to PNG.

Given the reduction in cases of infection and death, he said, the virus would probably disappear from China by the end of March.

Initially, said Levi, each coronary patient in China infects an average of 2.2 persons a day with an increase that could lead to disaster.

But the number began to fall, and the number of new infections is now close to zero”.

He compared it again to interest rates: “even if the interest rate for savings continues to decline, you still make money”.

The amount you have invested does not diminish, it just grows slower.

When you discuss illness, it frightens people greatly because they continue to hear new occasions every day. But the fact that the infection rate is slowing down means that the end of the pandemic is near”.

There are several reasons for this, according to Levi.

“In exponential growth patterns, you assume that new persons can be infected every day because you continue to meet new people.

You may encounter new people in public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, most passengers will eventually become infected or immune.

Another reason why the infection rate has slowed has to do with distance.

You don't embrace every person you meet on the street, and you will avoid face-to-face meeting with someone,” said Levitti.

The more you refrain, the more you can control the infection. So, under these circumstances, an infected person will infect only 1.5 people every three days and the level will continue to decline. ”

Karantina makes a difference, according to Levi, but there are other factors that affect it.

We know that China was under almost complete quarantine, people left home only to make substantial purchases and avoid contact with others. In Wuhan, which had the largest number of cases of infection in Hubei province, all had a chance to get infected, but only 3% were infected “he explained.

And in Princess Diamond, the infection rate failed to reach 20%x1>. Based on these statistics, he concluded that many people are naturally immune to the virus.

The outbreak of new cases in Italy is disturbing, Levi said, but it shows that it is the highest percentage of the elderly than in China, France, or Spain.

Moreover, Italian culture is very warm and Italians have a very rich social life.

For these reasons, it is important to keep people away and prevent sick people from contacting healthy people”.

China did excellent work and managed to gain full control of the virus, Levit said.

I'm more concerned about the US. It must isolate as many people as possible so that it can gain time for preparation. Otherwise, it could end up in a situation where 20,000 people will be infected at the same time and the health care system will be in chaos.

“Israel currently does not have enough cases to make a balance, Levit said, but he said the Health Ministry is dealing with pandemic in a correct, positive way.

The stricter the protective measures taken, the more time they will have to prepare for the necessary treatment of the infected and to develop a vaccine. ”

The Levite avoids making global predictions.

In China, he said, the number of new infections will soon reach zero, and South Korea is crossing the average point and can now see the end.

As for the rest of the world, it is still difficult to tell, he said. It will end when all those who are sick will not meet people who have already infected them.

“Diamond Princess” was the worst case, according to Levit. If you compare the ship to a place we're talking about 250,000 people standing so close to each other in such a small place.

It's four times more people than in Hong Kong.

Moreover, he said, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system. “These are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and only 20% were infected. It's very, but quite similar to the level of common flu infection. ”

As with the flu, most of those who die as a result of the coronary are over 70 years old, Levi said.

It is a known fact that the flu kills mainly the elderly about three-quarters of flu mortality are people over 65.

To put things in proportion: “There are years when the flu is dropping, as in the US. In 2017, when there was triple the regular number of mortality and we didn't panic.

That's my advice to everyone: you have to think about viru as if it's a bad flu. It is four to eight times stronger than the common flu, yet most people will remain healthy and mankind will survive<x0. /Calistech