Terriminating Territorials First Step Towards Greater Albania

DW: Thaci and Vucinqi are planning to trade territories. Washington is not against it. After talking to Donald Trump, Chancellor Merkel was not as common in her statement as before. Even Heiko Maas, Germany's foreign minister, in the context of the informal meeting in Gymnich, said only that it was not a good idea to change borders. That sounded more like advice than rejection. Is Germany softening its stance regarding the borders in the Balkans?

Milan Niic: I wouldn't necessarily see the shades. Berlin's position is clear enough. Germany has always been consistent and very clear on the matter. First, behind closed doors, during Chancellor Merkel's meetings in Berlin with President Vuciq and President Thaci, and later with the prime minister of Bosnia. She has spoken with Croatian Prime Minister Plenkovic as well. Perhaps he did not want to pour fuel on the fire by making another statement after August 2013. But I see no change in Germany's attitude. There are others who have changed.

DW: Who are you talking about?

Nic: Washington check. John Bolton's statement to my opinion is a sign that Americans are looking for alternatives, since they are no longer interested. They don't see the role of America as leader. This is for them a problem that remains with Europe. I have to add that Berlin is also disappointed with the role Commissioner Hahn and senior foreign policy representative Moghrin and the Austrian presidency have recently played, encouraging Serbia and Kosovo leaders to walk on this road. They said that a historic agreement between Serbia and Kosovo is more important than details, so borders. But this was not the unified position of the EU. They simply introduced Austria's diplomatic line, not that of the presidency.

DW: Why did Thaci and Vuciqi bring in the proposal of changing borders?

Nic: When President Thaci was visiting Berlin, we had him invited to DGAP along with Ambassador Ischinger, and Thaci then clearly ruled out the possibility of changing borders. It was a good thing he said it publicly, but now things have changed and I don't know why. From the Serbian side, this has always been an option for them since 1999. And now President Vuciq says that recognition of Kosovo can justify it before public opinion by taking something in compensation, hence territory.

DW: Is that a realistic option?

Nic: It's realistic if local leaders are determined to realise and key foreign actors, big powers, will allow it. But I'm a little worried that this story won't end with that.

DW: What will be its effect?

Nic: It's not about setting boundaries. I believe it's a complex issue. It is illusion to think that we will have only a small exchange of territories. Understandably, it is very attractive in this small part of the Balkans, when we consider northern Kosovo and Presevo, but it will not end there. It will be a step back that starts in Mitrovica, and the next day there will be a large division of Bosnia and Herzegovina and possibly even Macedonia. And there are also concerns about negotiations and parallel agreements between Pristina and Tirana. So, in other words, over a long-term period of this exchange of ethnic-based territories is seen as a step towards greater Albania.

Milan Niic, German Foreign Policy Association expert (DGAP) and in charge of studies at the Robert Bosch Centre for Central and Eastern Europe. One of its areas of expertise is the Western Balkans.