Five States Threatened by a Devastating Economic Crisis

Five best and five worst, according to Standard & Poorés

The Five Christmas and Five of the Supermeders are the title selected by the US rating agency for the new rankings of economies in shape, and those at risk, among developing countries. On the one hand, the list of bad “> ”, those who risk future crises, in the new world economic scenario, on the other side of the virtuosus.

Turkey appears in first place. “Turkey is the only one among the sovereign nations that is always among the most endangered, regardless of the selected variable”, says the agency's accompanying footnote. The Erdogan-led country is considered at risk due to simultaneous maneuvering, implemented by the world's leading central banks.

Increasing interest rates put Turkey at risk

Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, but also the Bank of Japan, are actually moving from a period of major monetary expansion to an increase in interest rates. According to the rating agency, this joint Western world action would pose a slight risk to emerging economies. According to CNBC, there are two main risks that economies, like Turkish, are exposed. First, the increased cost of the dollar, for weak currency economies (currently 1 Turkish lira is worth $2.26, U.S.), may have consequences for investments in dollars made by Ankara.

Second, increasing rates would move American investors to return their (SHBA) portfolios home in order to protect their money, in the work of this economic maneuver. These two concrete risks affect the variables reviewed by Standard & Poorés, including the state budget, GDP and foreign currency debt percentage. Variabla that would penalise Turkey.

In fact, Turkish economy moves at a high pace

In September 2017, however, Ankara's National Statistical Office reported that the Turkish economy is growing steadily. In the second quarter of the year, Turkish GDP rose 6.5% against 4.9% in the first three months of 2017. A record, with only 7% growth registered in 2015. The same positive trend could be registered in terms of unemployment, which fell from 11.7% to 10.5% between spring and summer.

That, therefore, raises not a few doubts about the criteria used by the agency to describe Turkey as the developing countries' black sheep. There is also room on the list for Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar.

Qatar also targets Standard & Poorés

Above all, there is the presence of emirat, who causes wonder. On the same accompanying note, it is said that “some observers may say that, due to its reservations, Qatar should not be on the Fifth of the Jews list. In fact, Qatar is second to Saudi Arabia, for the strong balance of payments outside”, the world.al.

It is strange, then, that in the very period when two countries -- Turkey and Qatar -- are moving away from the sphere of American political influence, both “are sentenced” by the judgment of an American rating agency.

An Impartial Agency

Regarding the reliability of Standard & Poorés estimates, Adusbef, the consumer protection association, had already indicated, condemning the lack of impartiality. Even the White House has spared no criticism, citing the agency's trial in 2013, which caused the subprime crisis.

The US-based vision of the agency is confirmed also by the introduction of China and Russia to the development group, when all key observers already agree that, above all, China is gaining US priority in the world economy. Once again, it is possible to see how the seemingly neutral economic assessments of Standard & Poorés can actually be refined geopolitical instruments.