A SK: Average population age in Kosovo expected to reach 49

Avni Kastrati, the executive director of the AKS, introduced the population forecast data, with the quote said it was envisioned to reduce Kosovo's birth to only seven thousand in 2060.

Living “ - from 21,500 to 2024 - would fall in 2060 to only 7,000. This is also an alarm for all institutions, especially educational ones and other areas. And with this number, that is, this decline, that is, a very likely planning of the education system, and other areas. and, demographics or other users, if they see a population forecast that Kosovo has made in the former system then, in 1984, I have seen a population forecast then, says Kosovo in 2020-25 will have 2.8 million residents residences. I'm talking about 1984, that old statistical one. Demographers at the time, the statistics, have predicted that Kosovo in 2020-25 will grow a lot, states in the region will fall but have not calculated migration and reduction of fertility, that these are the two factors. If we had said in 1984 a demographic that Kosovo would have 1.6 million, we're saying in 2024, it was incredible, nor was it the loch version, that is, the low one didn't predict, because the predictions are one, that there are certain standards that are said “” -- that is if, of course, that migration is not yet predicted, that migration has certainly been the new population that migrate, it has affected. Even now when he tells us you or users we're saying in 2060 he's only going to have 7,000 births, it's alarming, I don't think, but it looks like we're going that way. Deaths, the opposite of births due to, not something but because of the pyramid we'll see, that age group, that's going to be much more, that's going to be an old population, there's going to be 15,500 births, that's”, he said.

Kastrati, said he claimed that in 2025 or 237 in Kosovo the number of births to those of deaths would be equal.

“It is supposed that in 2035 or 37, Kosovo will match births to deaths. In the year "35-ya37 there will be no natural growth, namely Kosovo, as many states mean that they are in the region, that will be disturbing, but that trend is so. Expected 2035-37 Kosovo has no positive natural growth. Migrating from 21,000 is expected to drop by 11,000, but that's the determinative factor I'm saying will affect this project. Children, current 2024, 345, very few children are expected to have a 66% drop. Age of work that is vital, half by half, nearly 46%. The elderly will be a matter to consider - how to care for this age group. The 85 plus age group will grow by 5.8 times, due to life expectancy. This is not a innovation, the European Union countries have passed this phase, even in the region, almost except Albania, have passed this phase. This is the trend according to group age and gender expected in the years to come. Population age, central challenge, changes in the age of 35, in 2060, Kosovo is thought to be approaching that is, states of the European Union, or otherwise as far as I know it, Japan is now 49 years old and middle age, but we will be 35 years later, we assume”, he said.

Idriz Shala, GIS expert at the ASS, pointed out the main findings from the Kosovo municipal profile, where Pristina is the largest and most urban municipality, while Dragashi municipality among the rurals.

“Accounting of municipalities has been analysed in some key areas: how they live, where they live, where they live, the level of qualification, employment, unemployment, urbanism, transportation, access to public services, and changes in the situation from 2011 to 2024.

Here are some key indicators that reflect changes. Until 2011 Kosovo was 1.8 million people, it has now fallen to 1.6, or -10%. Until 2011, 38% of the population was urban, it has now grown to 50.2%, or 12% more. Until 2011 we had 42,000 residences, now it grew to 580,000 residences, or 40%.

The average size of the family economy has dropped. Since 2011 was 5.9, now it's 4.3. While people over 65 years, the percentage rose to close to 50%.

Pristina is mainly urban, while Dragashi preserves a pronounced rural character. Pristina is the largest and most urban municipality. At the same time, some municipalities have seen significant population growth, while others have registered significant declines. These differences show that public planning and policies should rely on specific statistics for each municipality.

Here we have the population size according to the municipalities. The biggest municipality, Pristina, is Pristina, then follows Prizren, Ferizaj, Gjilan, Peja, and so on. While smaller municipalities are Zvecani, Ranillug, Zubin Potoku. In Pristina, some 14.2% of Kosovo's population live, or about 1 out of 7 Kosovo residents live in Pristina.

Here we have population density according to the municipalities. Until national level we have 147 inhabitants per square mile. The highest density municipality is northern Mitrovica, Fushe Kosova, Mamusha, Pristina, Ferizaj, Prizren and so on. While smaller ones are the municipalities of Zubin Potok, Leposaviq, Novoberda, Zvecan and others”, he said.

While in unemployment, Shala stressed that the highest level is in women.

Data also shows unemployment is higher in women. Unfortunately, employment has the negative values in proportion to men. I mean, women 21.5% than men 17.8%. It remains a challenge to reduce the gap between municipalities and increase employment opportunities, especially among women.

Job market data between 25 and 64 years of age show that the level of labor force has slightly increased, from 51.8% in 2011 to 52.5%. Meanwhile, unemployment has dropped significantly -- from 40.5% to 12.7%, featuring a reduction of 27.8.8%<8> -- he introduced.

Agon Batusha, deputy minister of the Ministry of Local Power, said precise data are essential for proper location, and this ASC job will facilitate the work of mayors.

Everyone knows that without statistics, without data, no decision-making is complete. And of course without information, we can easily make decisions that are not directly for the benefit of citizens. Therefore, accurate, detailed data is essential for making proper decisions, not only for us as governments, ministries but especially for municipalities and agencies that provide direct services to citizens. As MAPL, we work hard with municipalities and we all know that municipalities are,

We say in the popular jargon, first front with citizens, because most civil services are taken to the municipality. Taking into account the competencies which have mayors, municipal assemblies and, respectively, all municipal decision-making bodies, work without data, without statistics, is not so complete. Therefore, the work the Kosovo Statistics Agency has done will greatly facilitate the work of mayors and local decision-makers, to provide services and plan better services for Kosovo citizens”, he said.

International expert Eduardo Jongstra said changes due to migration are the most disturbing.

The most disturbing is the changes that occur because of people's movement. And here we have two dimensions: local urbanization movement, that's moving from rural areas to urban areas, but also international migration, respectively. And all of you know that Kosovo is a migration country. I mean, Kosovo people move all the time abroad and come back again. And this return is a very important part, because it means that they're registered to a population record".

"Well, in many cases, they may not have been in Kosovo for much of the time. This, of course, kind of blurs the data, but we worked with them as well as we could. After all, the census is an instant view. He shows how the situation is presented at a certain time moment, and now, along with 2011, we have two moments on time and compare them.

Above all, I think the results found in these profiles are very reliable, taking into account the political and economic changes that have occurred between 2011 and 2024”, he said, EO reports, broadcast. Periscope.

Also, the other expert, Thomas Kucera, said that it is not only statistics on effective development management, but also a real vision of population development.

If we rely solely on past data, we encourage the assumption that the future will simply repeat the past. In real societies, this rarely happens. As for the development of the population, the changes in fertility, mortality, migration, and population structure over time are accumulated over the years<x1).

Therefore, effective development management requires not only statistics but also a realistic vision for future population development. In that sense, the purpose of the prediction is practical. We need to analyze the development of the population to understand it, and predict it to manage development more effectively.

The population is the key element of any social system in the broader sense. No political, economic or cultural system exists without people. People are users of services, students and students, workers, taxpayers, patients, consumers, even voters, parents, migrants and elderly ones who need support. Hence, changes in the scale and scale of the population affect almost every major area of development management”, he said.

According to the AKS, publishing these reports today includes 56 reports based on population registration, family economies and residences 2024. These two publications are also marked by the innovation they bring, because for the first time, population predictions have been realized even at the municipality level, completing the country's previous publication by 2060. /Periscope/