Can Kosovo be forced to choose between the US and the EU?

Now, when the United States and the European Union are showing more and more differences in their priorities and approaches, this support does not seem so co-ordinated by placing Kosovo in the face of new political and strategic challenges, writes REL, broadcast Periscope.

Last week, it filled up with 27 years of NATO intervention that halted the violence of Serb forces in Kosovo and permanently changed the course of its history.

The decision, at the time, was co-ordinated by all allies and confirmed their commitment to prevent bloodshed and ethnic cleansing.

Today, we and our 18 NATO allies agreed to do what we said we would do, what we should do to restore peace”, then US President Bill Clinton said on March 24, 1999.

Since then, Kosovo has consolidated its independence. With its challenges and successes, it has been internationally recognised, accepted in various organisations and made significant steps towards Euro-Atlantic integration all thanks to continued support by Western allies.

But the path towards full membership in the EU and NATO remains long and closely linked to the West, which today is divided and unclear in attitudes.

Tensions between the United States on one side and Europe on the other have culminated in the Iran war, but, in fact, have begun to increase from the beginning of US President Donald Trump's second term on a series of issues ranging from trade to his ambitions for Denmark's autonomous territory, Greenland.

In one of the strongest warnings made this week, Trump threatened to withdraw the US from NATO, following European allies' refusal to send ships to unblock the Hormuz Strait near Iran.

Similarly, he described the alliance as a “paper player”, which does not support the US.

I will say it publicly, we are very disappointed with NATO, because NATO has done nothing... Most importantly, we come to their aid, but they never come to us”, Trump said.

Although he had warned that he would also address the subject in his speech to the nation, on April 1, he avoided it.

A day later, co-chairees of the NATO Monitoring Group in the US Senate said Congress would not allow Washington's withdrawal from the Western military alliance.

On the other side of the Atlantic, EU foreign policy chief Kaya Kallas acknowledged that the relationship between the two poles is <x0 complicated”.

In an interview given to the Financial Times last month, she said the United States “wanted to divide Europe”.

I think it's important that everyone realize that the US has made it very clear that it wants to divide Europe. It does not like the European Union”, Kallas said.

The statement was made in those days when the Trump administration launched trade investigations into the European Union and several other countries, accusing them of unfair trade practices, and therefore, these countries could face new tariffs in the coming months.

The foreign countries that have been cheating on us for years, are in ecstasy, are very happy, and are dancing on the streets, but won't dance for much longer. For this, I assure you”, Trump said.

The Jehu of this rift is far away, and Kosovo appears as a particularly fragile and exposed partner.

A recent study by the Pristina Legal and Political Studies Group identified five major dangers facing Kosovo from this situation began increased interference in Kosovo's internal affairs, higher vulnerability to external threats, erosion of the principle of sovereignty, strengthening authoritarianism, to obstacles in the Euro-Atlantic integration process.

The author of the study, Alejandro Estos Peres, explains about the Free Radio Exchange Programme that Kosovo is more vulnerable than other Western Balkan countries, to the fact that its controversial status puts it in an adverse international position, not allowing it to have full recognition, equal participation in international institutions and country in the United Nations Organisation.

These five risks should be understood as a whole. All contribute to Kosovo's current and future position through different dimensions and to different degrees. There are risks within the country, the region and international ones, which are driven by various actors, but all influence Kosovo's position in the short and medium term”, Perez says.

Toby Vogel, of the Council for Democratic Policy in Brussels, agrees that Kosovo's security and political future are increasingly vulnerable.

While often talking about concrete scenarios like withdrawing American troops from the peacekeeping mission NATO in Kosovo, KFOR Vogel sees the main danger elsewhere: uncertainty.

We live in a very difficult geopolitical environment -- not only the Iran War, but the one in Ukraine. Similarly, Gaza remains unresolved, now there is war on Lebanon and other similar issues. All of this distracts attention from a strategic analysis for the Balkans. And I regret to say that Kosovo has fallen almost at the end of the list of priorities for Europeans”, Vogel says about Expose.

Vogel warns that any possible change in the international presence in Kosovo could provoke more aggressive actions by different actors.

He does not rule out the scenario of localised incidents, which can escalate into a chain of reactions, stressing that the EU is not ready to face Serbia, which continues to have territorial claims on Kosovo.

So, if the US withdraws troops from KFOR, this could have very serious consequences. Not in the sense of an immediate return to violence, let alone war... even though, frankly, at these times and chaotic conditions, I wouldn't rule out anything”, Vogel says.

With the National Defence Authorisation Act, the United States has called on Kosovo and Serbia to make concrete progress towards normalisation of relations, and has stressed the need for support of a final agreement based on mutual recognition.

However, the two countries have not held any summit since September 2023, though in the EU they have declared their readiness to mediate one.

Vogel estimates that the stated final goal of the dialogue has been significantly dimmed in Brussels, and adds that the EU has shown no real interest in advancing Kosovo in the membership process, remaining the only country in the Western Balkans without candidate status.

Peres, on the other hand, says it is difficult to make accurate forecasts for dialogue with Serbia, EU integration and security issues, due to geopolitical unpredictable in Washington and the instability of global developments.

The current energy crisis, which has followed the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran, is a new and unfortunate development, which has largely failed to predict. This situation is forcing the European Union to shift its diplomatic attention away from enlargement and the Western Balkans, jeopardising Kosovo to remain neglected”, Perez says.

Asked whether Kosovo should choose sides between the US and the EU, Peres stresses that the country should show consistency among the democratic values that promote and its actions in foreign policy.

According to him, listing alongside problematic regimes in international initiatives creates the perception of unconditional submission, rather than of literal sovereignty, clouding Kosovo's image as a democratic ambitious state.

Kosovo has joined the Peace Board for Gaza an initiative this was undertaken by President Trump, including countries with authoritarian tendencies such as Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.

The main European powers including France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Spain have refused to join this project, and this, according to Vogel, shows that Kosovo has somehow taken sides.

This is something the EU does not like. She does not see for good the sake of a potential candidate country being listed so openly with the US in a move many consider to be a possible rival organisation of the United Nations”, Vogel says.

However, he views this decision as a pragmatic rather than ideological movement. In the face of the lack of real perspective for EU membership, the refusal to recognise the bloc's five countries and often punishable positions, he says Kosovo's union with the Peace Board serves as a way to stay close to the US and as a shield against unexpected changes to international politics.

But despite that, Kosovo's long-term future, Vogel sees within Europe, mainly through pan-European structures and strong bilateral relations with key EU states.

For authorities in Kosovo, these alliances with the West remain without an alternative, but the lack of transatlantic co-ordination, according to analysts, has markedly limited their space for maneuvering.

They point out that the future of the country depends not only on internal actions but also largely on decisions made in the main centers of power in the West.

And right there, actually, lack of clarity. /Periscope/