The beginning of the end of Putin's rule?

The king is naked” This is how most international analysts and connoisseurs in Russia feel. But it is difficult to assess with accuracy the consequences of the rebellion of Yevgenij Pgozhini's private army. The fact is, according to analysts, that Putin's power has weakened after this revolt.

The most important thing that can be determined is that Putin has clearly lost his authority,” assessing the German expert for Russia, Fabian Burkhard. However, who won the Russian power structure will be determined later. “Many actors in Russia are surprised by this” situation, recalls Burkhard, who usually conducted research at the Leibniz Institute for Eastern and Southeast European Studies in Regensburg.

The beginning of Putin's end?

For me this is the beginning of the Putin” system collapse, says Irina Shebakova, co-founder of the Human Rights Organisation, which is now banned in Russia, in an interview for Deutschlandfunk radio.

Timothy Snyder, an American historian and professor from the American University in Yale (Yale), points to the first analysis: “There was no one in any Russian city who spontaneously expressed personal support for Putin or even personally jeopardise his regime. ”

The March of Prigozhi in Moscow showed the people of Russia and the world “that a small band of soldiers” could arrive in Moscow relatively easily, describes Snyder's loss of control of Putin. “This was not the case before the Russian armed forces were deployed in Ukraine”.

Putin lacks troops in the country

According to this logic, with his illegal aggression in Ukraine, Putin abolished unlimited power in Russia because his military base of power disappeared. But are the recent events in Russia a <x0-point peak” political for Putin, the beginning of the end of his rule?

At least that's what Shebakova believes, who lives in exile in Berlin. But neither does she know “and how long it will last to”.

For Timothy Snyder, what he sees as “apati” in Russia “suggests that most Russians now simply assume they are dominated by gangsters with mostly guns. They're making their daily lives whoever that gangster is.” However, Yale historian is convinced: “Even if they put him in the corner, Putin will save himself”.

“Wars end with internal pressure on attacker”

This draws attention to the fighting in Ukraine and asks the question: Can Putin scale back the war there to consolidate his power base in the Kremlin? Or will Wagner's rebellion once be the beginning of the end of war?

Wars in general end “when pressure is felt within the political system,” says Snyder. When the fact is that more than 50 US-led countries support Ukraine, then: “those who want this war to end must help Ukrainians make this pressure”, he thinks.

At the moment, it is unclear whether the Ukrainian army on the front can benefit from the events in Russia. First of all, did these events really weaken the effectiveness of Russian forces?

German security expert Niko Lange told DW that it is difficult to assess what Russian soldiers in Ukraine heard about the uprising. The “are removed from cell phones and very isolated from reality”, says the expert on Ukraine and Russia, who also works for the Munich Security Conference.

Russian commanders' concerns in Ukraine

Lange estimates that uncertainty has increased among Russian commanders. Moreover, Pgozhin's troops will be missing at the front. Currently, it is not clear what will happen to Wagner's 25,000 soldiers.

Wagner units have invaded the Russian Army's southern command in Rostov. This metropolis is one of the most important points for the supply of Russian armed forces to the so-called land corridor between Russia and Crime, which was previously occupied by Putin's army. The next important point is Crime Bridge.

Cutting off these two supply routes is one of the Ukrainian Army's military targets in the counterattack that has begun. Because, without ammunition and fuel supplies, Russian troops will fail.

Disagreements between Prigozhin and Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu are lasting for months. Wagner's boss has repeatedly accused the Russian army of failing to provide enough equipment and ammunition to his people even in wartime for the town of Bahmut. As the Russian Southern Command invasion in Rostov helped Pgozhin reach the best possible agreement with the Kremlin for himself. / DW