Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu: Whom will Turkey choose?

Current President Recep Tayip Erdogan will face face face face face-to-face with his opposition rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in the May 28th runoff. In the first round, on May 14th, Erdogan has secured 49.51 per cent of the vote clearly more than Kilicdaroglu by 44.88 per cent, but to win the race fully, more than half of the votes are needed.

Erdogan has voiced confidence that he will succeed in the second circle.

“E we have exceeded the nearest contender in the election by 2.6 million votes. I believe that figure will rise much higher in final results”, Erdogan has said.

With the result achieved, Erdogan has testified that opinion polls have been wrong. Many pre-election polls have shown that his rival is on track to win in the first circle. Moreover, he has had the support of a group of parties with different orientations.

Kilicdaroglu has asked supporters not to despair “and participate in the second round of elections.

New “, rise and eliminate despair. Those who love their homeland go to the ballot boxes. We will fight to the end and we will definitely win”, Kilicdaroglu has indicated.

Sinan Ogan, the third presidential contender, has won 5.2 per cent of the vote, which could be crucial to the final outcome. However, he has given no indication of where he will lead his supporters.

We will do our best to make this process good for our nation and country. Right now I'm not saying we're going to support one or the other”, Ogan said.

Elections in Turkey are being attended internationally to see the direction the country will take. Under Erdogan's 20-year rule, NATO member has cultivated warmer relations with Russia, has become less secular and has pointed to authoritarianism, with great control of media and judiciary. Erdogan's government has also accused the West of plotting to bring it down, while Turkey's candidacy for EU membership has long been frozen. Kilicdaroglu, who has a more pro-Western stance, has promised that he will reorient the country as a democracy and that he will improve relations with NATO allies.

In question of what Kilicdaroglu's victory for Turkey, Emre Erdogan, professor of political science at Istanbul's Bilgi University, puts it this way for Expose:

Pre-all pturalism. For years, Erdogan's government has acted as a monist, presenting itself as the nation's only representative. The victory of the opposition candidate would bring more space for diversity and pluralism. That would be the first major change. Then civil liberties would also be increased, freedom of expression, freedom of thought... Erdogan's government, as a result of 20-year governance, also has close ties to business organisations, with several companies and some conglomerates. This would clearly change”.

Internationally, Kilicdaroglu's possible victory would also bring about changes, says the Louis Fishman Expo, the legalist of Middle East history at the Brooklyn College. With Kilicdaroglu, according to him, Turkey will try to improve its ties with Europe and the United States.

With the power of Erdogan, everyone would be happy to see his departure I think in Europe and the United States, because they have tense relationships with him and want a new beginning. But Russia on the other hand would be upset by his departure. Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been maintaining very, very close relations”, says Fishman.

On May 14th, Turks have voted for 600 seats in Parliament. Even in these elections, Erdogan's party has had a good time winning the majority. Professor Emre Erdogan says the president has managed to bring things back to him, despite the heavy economic situation, with high inflation and unemployment, and despite the devastating consequences of the February earthquakes. According to him, Erdogan's message to put national security interests ahead of economic challenges has convinced a considerable part of his conservative and nationalist supporters. Emre Erdogan expects no surprise on May 28th.

Of course, Erdogan seems to be in the lead, because he's very close to 50 per cent. His party has also received a majority in Parliament. He will exploit this issue of [institutional] stability and will ask voters to give support to the same party, both in Parliament and at the presidency”, Erdogan says.

Louis Fishman, of Brooklyn College, also feels that the opposition will find it very difficult in the runoff.

The Erdogan government has come to power 20 years ago. In 1999 a massive earthquake occurred, the economy was terrible. So Erdogan has formulas. At the same time, he also uses the nationalist card, which has truly been pumped”, points out Fishman.

Fishman says a major role on the eve of the runoff will also play the media, which is largely controlled by the Erdogan Government.

If we look at the media one night before the elections, Erdogan has appeared on 25 channels, while Kilicdaroglu is on only two or three channels. I'm talking about the main channels seen in Turkey. On election night, meanwhile, we had a leading agency that repeatedly showed Erdogan in a better position than polls presented at first. So this is also demoralizing”, he says.

European election observers have said the voting process in Turkey has generally been “well organised”. But, the current president has had an unjustified <x2);x3>, including unilateral media coverage”, OSCE Special Co-ordinator Michael Georg Link has said.

Both Professor Erdogan and Fishman warn that the campaign before the run-off can be fierce. Ahead of the May 14th vote, Erdogan has despised the opposition, saying he is backed by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party. Kilicdaroglu has said that Erdogan has failed to achieve the outcome he wanted, despite having made “slander and insults” against the opposition. Analysts say both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu now look to the votes that the third candidate has won. While Sinan Ogan awaits bids that can be made by the government or opposition, analysts say the former nationalist delegation has an ideology that better fits Erdogan's alliance.

The victory would give Erdogan the third mandate. Early as prime minister, at times as president, he has been in power since 2002. That means he has led the country longer than any Turkish president and even many Ottoman Sultans.

Kilicdaroglu's victory, on the other hand, would symbolize the desire of a large portion of the electorate for change. Turkish citizens will turn to ballot boxes at the end of March of next year for local elections. The two main opposition parties in the past have proposed joint candidates, managing to win mayoral positions in the main metropolitan areas. Analysts say the potential opposition division would enable Erdogan's party to expand its control even in major municipalities such as Istanbul and Ankara. In the US, Senator Chris Murphy, a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, has said Turkey will be a vital partner of the US, regardless of who will lead this country. /REL