Analyst Popov: European Proposal included recognition '%implicite” of Kosovo from Serbia

Voice of America: Serbia and Kosovo are under pressure from Western powers to accept a European proposal for normalising relations between them. How do you see this proposal? Is it a solution?

Aleksandar Popov: I think for now it's the possible opium version of the solution. I think the Ukraine crisis accelerated Western efforts to somehow resolve Kosovo “ ”, given that both sides have decided some, to call them conditional, red lines. If they were taken into account, the agreement would never take place, because as far as Belgrade is concerned, he has said he would never effectively recognise Kosovo and would not agree that Kosovo would become part of the United Nations. On the other hand, the Kosovo side, I'm talking about the government led by Albin Kurti, has set the red line that it can only talk about recognising Kosovo's independence, and when the agreement is reached, other issues can be discussed. Both approaches are unrealistic. So the West put matters in a more real framework through this plan. That plan is real since it envisions something that is acceptable to Serbia in a move, because if it is seen its fourth article then that plan brings implications to Kosovo and this is seen for great (President Aleksandar) Vucic during the debate in parliament on the issue. However, he has for the time being managed to absorb discontent. While Mr. Kurti is not satisfied with his maximum demand and does not know how to take the lead in public opinion, especially his elector, since he said that mutual recognition is the only solution and can then be discussed on all issues. Belgrade, however, is aware that when that happens, there is no more to discuss.

Voice of America: However, Prime Minister Kurti and President Vucin have both said they are willing to talk. Are they really ready?

Aleksandar Popov: It is clear that for a long time, Western pressure has been exerted, primarily for the European Union to have negotiations happen. Then by the end of last year, in autumn and early winter, “pazari” is placed, and each side has tried to show what conditioning opportunities they have. The Serbian side, along with Serbs in Kosovo's north, indicated there is a potential for a conflict in the area. With long - standing blockades there, it was likely possible to transform into a hotbed of conflict, since it would suffice for one person to suffer from either side or things to go away. So undefined was the situation that things could get out of control of any third party that is interested in promoting this. Then Serbia proved constructive by removing the barricades. You remember at that time (American envoy Gabriel) Escobar said it would take away those who put it. Then the Kosovo side turned out to be not co-operative. Mr. Kurti often spoke only of mutual recognition and the Association of Serb majority municipalities is no priority at all. So a similar attitude like the former Serbian side. When you're not a collaborator, then you get a bill like Vucic put on three points to mean: there's no European roads, there's no European funds, and you're going to be pulled out of investments and you're going to be in total blockades. The Kosovo side is now in the position the Serb side was in on the eve of the conference in Ramboullet in the 1990s. Now, the European Union has a softer approach, on bail, but Americans have a different style of action, and this has been proven at the time when efforts were made to disrupt the conflict in the 1990s, (Richard) Holebrook used the tactic of “hand-tightening”. This is where US diplomat Derek Chollet, who is Holebroke number 2. I think he put the bills on the parties. Serbia, what Vucic said, which named conditioning, but said we don't have any of it to bear, and if the threats that have been made, Serbia will kneel down. Mr. Kurti resisted long enough, but Mr. Chollet did his part and then Mr. Escobar and (Miroslav) Lajcak endured pressure on Kurt and finally he said he agreed to talk about the Franco-German plan and was more relaxed about the Association of Serb majority municipalities, extending those six conditions, but it was clearly seen that pressure bore fruit. Even the Kosovo government can be politically conditioned because it has collapsed once it was not co-operative.

Voice of America; Do you believe that Prime Minister Kurti has seen for Association in view of the concentrated American pressure?

Aleksandar Popov: We should remember that west, the EU and the United States have committed so much political energy and capital that they cannot afford to let this attempt fail. They will do everything they can because they have no time to deal with Ukraine even with our spaces and games of our political leaders. They'll end the confession. Many times it has been said that the starting point is the founding of the Serb majority municipalities' association. To demonstrate this, the US Embassy organised a meeting regarding the proposal made by the Friedriesh Ebert Foundation. It doesn't mean it's exactly that proposal, but it was beginning to address the case. Now Mr. Vucic has the letter in his hand because Mr. Escobar and Mr. Lajcak have said it must be the starting point. If Pristina doesn't implement it then Mr. Vucic can say “see I'm co-operative, they're not, see what you're going to do with them”. So I don't think Mr. Kurt will be able to hold a grudge over this case.

Voice of America: Can Mr. Kurti's conditions for association or Mr. Vucic's warnings of possible new elections in Serbia hinder the process?

Aleksandar Popov: No, I think no matter who does what they do, the West will not allow and dare not allow the process to take on momentum and in which much energy has been invested, to be damaged by the games that have been seen before as the organisation of early elections and so on. This will not be tolerated. That's why I think they'll stand firm in their position to act according to their game rules and if not, each side will face sanctions that have been made clear to them.

Voice of America: In fact, is the European proposal a middle solution rather than a solution?

Aleksandar Popov: Of course I do. Reality should be considered. The reality is that Kosovo's admission to the UN could be blocked by the two permanent members of the Security Council, which are Russia and China. Such warnings already come from Russia. They want to keep Serbia in their sphere of influence through the Kosovo issue, although Serbia has been stabbed in the back by using Kosovo's example to justify the annexation of the Crimea, although they no longer have the moral right to support the Serb stance on Kosovo in the Security Council. Kosovo could enjoy the fact that the first step would unblock the process of membership in international organisations and not say that if this agreement is accepted, specifically the fourth article in which two independent states actually speak will not interfere with each other. For Kosovo, it would be a big step compared to the situation in which there was no membership in international organisations and not saying there have been no such formulas dealing with Kosovo as actually an independent state. Therefore, the Kosovo government can insist on maximum demand, but at this time it will not benefit more. Like Serbia that has made mistakes since (Slobodan) Milosevic's time that rejected certain proposals on the table, and every time you reject the next proposal, it is worse. Let's just take the tragic fact of rejection of the Z4 plan for Krajina (in Croatia). If accepted, we would not have refugees here but would be in their homes and have some state in the country.

Voice of America: Since the Z4 plan is mentioned, in Kosovo there is concern that the Association of Serb majority municipalities could be a new Serbian Republic? Is this intended with association?

Aleksandar Popov: That's not true. What I've seen on paper is something that even in the laws for self-government in Serbia, the union of municipalities is envisioned. The association, regardless of when and how it will be established, will not have Republika Srpska attributes. That's far from the truth, but with that it is a fear that if we accept this, we will have the new Serbian Republic. What is proposed is far from Republika Srpska. It is actually a service of Serb majority municipalities for cases authorised by municipalities. Here the obstacle appears to be naming “Serbian”, and with this comes Kurti that it is no longer in agreement with the multiethnic society of Kosovo and the Constitution, that a single association is being established. But we have another thing that, according to the plan of (Martti) Ahtisaari, Serb majority municipalities have been created and it has been acknowledged that municipalities are formed according to ethnic principle. There is also a majority Turkish municipality in Kosovo, but there are ten municipalities with the Ahtisaari plan that have Serb majority. This is the initial point where the Association of Serb majority municipalities, which in a way would be a link with the government that could exercise influence in the legislative framework, etc. But this is too far from Republika Srpska.