Serbia's election outcome is not a good sign for Kosovo, says Serwer

Preliminary records of the December 17th elections show that the Serbian Progressive Party, led by Vuciq, has won the majority.

Opposition list “Serbia against violence” has, meanwhile, demanded the annulment of the elections in Belgrade, claiming there were irregularities.

Commenting on Vuciki's victory in relation to Kosovo, Serer says the result “is not a good sign” for relations between the two countries.

I see no sign that Vuciq is ready for a serious change in terms of relations with Kosovo. Rather, he has gone in the opposite direction. He again calls for the establishment of Serbia's sovereignty. He rejects the importance of the March and February agreements [The Ohrid and Annex Agreement for its implementation], which the US and EU say are legally binding”, says Cerer for REL.

 Radio Free Europe: Both domestic and international opinion has described the elections in Serbia as a referendum on the leadership of President Aleksandar Vuciq. What, then, does their outcome indicate? Vuciqi's Serbian Progressive Party, even after ten years in power, has won the majority in Parliament.

Daniel Serwer: Well, he won his referendum. No doubt about it.

Radio Free Europe: Did you expect that result?

Daniel Serwer: Yes, I have. I don't think he would have announced early elections if he didn't expect a victory. Even himself, even the party moved them to the right. There are multiple right-wing forces “He used Government as a cover to strengthen his voice. It has created a free electoral system, but not fair, which favours it.

Radio Free Europe: Does that result change anything in Serbia, not only in the internal aspect, but also in foreign policy relations with Russia and the EU?

Daniel Serwer: I don't expect anything to change. In recent months, Vuciq has been extremely relying on Moscow and Beijing. His best friends these days are autocrats. He too wants to be one. He is an autism, voted in elections, without serious competition on the horizon.

Radio Free Europe: When you say Serbia is an election autocracy, would Western governments agree with you? We have not heard them say that Serbia is the electoral autism.

Daniel Serwer: To be clear, these are not the first free but unfair elections in Serbia. They have been held under severe media control by the ruling party, exploiting state resources, transporting people who I hope had access to buses from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

This is not the way the right choices are made. There are many abuses already documented and I expect even more. But I don't know anyone in Washington today who would call Serbia democracy.

Serbia is not near EU”

Radio Free Europe: But, Vuciq also says his party is very committed on the European road, that Serbia is a serious candidate for membership in the European Union. How do you read these messages?

Daniel Serwer: First of all, I think how much these messages are worth, which means very, very little. He [Vuchic] is in power for a long time and has not approached Serbia with the European Union.

In fact, he has challenged the European Union by not only opposing sanctions against Russia but also many other issues, including recently reached agreements with Kosovo, which Prime Minister Anna Brnabisic denies Serbia is respecting.

So you might say you're for the EU, but you also have to behave that way, and Vucinic's not doing that.

Radio Free Europe: Can we expect any kind of signal, pressure from Brussels to the future government, to be clearly oriented by the EU?

Daniel Serwer: I don't expect much from Brussels, because Serbia and Hungary which is in the EU and with the leader of which [Victor] Orban, Vuciq has been befriended have a common one: led by autocrats. I do not expect the EU to reach a consensus on anything that might be pressure on Serbia.

I hope the United States is different. If we go back to the events of September 24th, the rebellion in northern Kosovo that was apparently orchestrated by Belgrade I would expect the United States to react.

Yet, so far, they have not, and I am not sure they will. They don't see an alternative to Vucinqi.

There is no immediate alternative for Vucinqi, but I think the US would benefit much more from Serbia if it took a harsher stance, not continue to pet it.

How will the West react to elections?

Radio Free Europe: What reaction do you expect from Washington?

Daniel Serwer: I don't know what to expect. You know, these are obviously not fair choices and he should say that.

It should be much tougher to Serbia when it comes to the events of September 24th [in Banjska]. He should say that, if he wants [former Serb List deputy] Milan Radoic is responsible for those events, then must hand him over to Kosovo for trial.

It must be much, much tougher towards Serbia, but so far it has not been. And I see no sign that he will change his mind. I think he'll just keep pretending.

Radio Free Europe: In recent days, Belgrade was determined not to extradite to Kosovo at any cost...

Daniel Serwer: If you [Serbia] claim that Kosovo is your territory, while crime has occurred in Kosovo, then you should be willing to send Radociqi to Kosovo. For Serbia it would not be extradition.

The point is to send you to the competent organs of justice. Kosovo authorities have existed even before [independence]. It is not that Kosovo has not had parliament, judiciary and police in the past. These institutions should be treated with respect. And therefore, the trial must be held there. But no one insists.

Everyone fears that he [Vuchic] will fall into the arms of Xi Jinping, and [Russian president] Vladimir Putin. But the fact is he's already in their arms.

What is the first challenge for the new government?

Radio Free Europe: Do you see this request for extradition as the first challenge for Serbia's future government?

Daniel Serwer: I wouldn't know that. But for me it's a simple matter. Crime has occurred on Kosovo's territory. In Kosovo, there are authorities recognised by Serbia through the 2013 Brussels Agreement, which also requires the formation of the Serb majority municipalities' association.

So, if you love Association, you have to fulfill your obligations under the 2013 agreement. And that means that Radoic is tried by competent authorities in Kosovo.

The agreement is absolutely clear that the authorities' judicial system in Pristina is valid on the entire territory of Kosovo.

Radio Free Europe: When we are of the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo, will this result of the Serbian Progressive Party accelerate the final agreement, or will the current trend continue?

Daniel Seer: I see no sign that Vuciq is ready for a serious change in terms of relations with Kosovo. Rather, he has gone in the opposite direction. He again calls for the establishment of Serbia's sovereignty. He rejects the importance of the March and February agreements [the Ohrid Agreement and the Annex for its implementation], which the US and EU say are legally binding.

It is true that Brussels is adding to those provisions the conditions for Serbia's EU accession, but Vuciq is not serious as far as EU membership is concerned. So it won't change much. I think this [result] is not a good sign for relations with Kosovo.

 A shameful “ <x1 European>

Radio Free Europe: The second largest force in Serbia's Parliament is expected to be the pro-European opposition list “Serbia against violence”. According to the first estimates, it will have 64 mandates in Parliament. To what extent could the corrective be to the Serbian Progressive Party?

Daniel Serwer: I think it's very important that they be in Parliament. Let me be absolutely clear: they didn't boycott the elections. Boycott's almost always wrong.

They have realized that elections would be free but unfair, and they have done well under these circumstances. I don't think it would be reasonable to expect them to do better.

The opposition in parliament plays an important role and often prepares the way for future governance.

Therefore, they must seriously understand their opposition role and begin to think about what they want to impose as a programme of the future government.

Honestly, they've been shy so far. They haven't had many new ideas. The pro-European platform is not much new anymore.

Radio Free Europe: Why do you consider it a shameful political option?

Daniel Serwer: They, of course, are very shy about Kosovo.

They don't mean anything that would suggest they have a softer relationship with Kosovo and that they want real agreements with Kosovo.

They should consider whether it is truly wise to do so or not.

They are also shy about economic issues, harmonisation at the international level, the problem of violence what would they really do with the issue of violence and the culture of violence in Serbia?

Today's Serbia is autism. It wasn't ten years ago, but today it's electoral autocracy. But it still offers him some opportunities for the opposition's effectiveness. I'd like to see if they're used or not.

Wucinch has the right to celebrate, to enjoy a powerful outcome. But the opposition can be proud of what it has accomplished. And now, she must prove she is capable of introducing a platform that would be attractive to citizens in the upcoming election.

 Strong side to Russia”

Radio Free Europe: The biggest election surprise is the list led by Dr Branimir Nestorovic, known for his conspiracy theories. He'll be in Parliament for the first time. It represents an ideology of the far right, it is pro-rus, its list includes Dragan Stanojevic, a little-known in Serbia, but described as an extremely pro-rus player who is under Ukraine's sanctions. How much does it matter to get this list into Parliament?

Daniel Serwer: I think it reflects the right feelings of a good part of citizens. And not only because of historical and cultural ties with Russia, but also because of the media environment that blames it NATO for the war in Ukraine, which favours Vladimir Putin at every step.

That's what you get when you're leaning towards Russia -- people who love Russia, even after it invades another country.

The logic in this situation would be completely opposed to Serbia being offended by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but that is not the case.

Perhaps Serbia has voted against Russia in some of the insignificant resolutions of the UN General Assembly, but we know very well that, in essence, Aleksandar Vuciq is in line with Putin and Chinese President Xi.

 “Vucciq received both pro-Russian and pro-European space”

Radio Free Europe: Have you expected better results from pro-European forces in Serbia?

Daniel Serwer: I don't think I expected much better results. I knew Vuciq would win. He has managed to take both pro-European and pro-European space, although it is much closer to pro-European direction than it is.

No one is to be deceived. Serbia will not join the EU soon because Vuciq has done nothing to prepare the country for EU membership. And as long as the current policy for Kosovo is in force, Serbia will not enter the EU that is very clear.

Vuciq understands that and knows that EU membership will not happen soon.

He just wants to take that political space. He doesn't want to give it to anyone else. So he makes a lot of statements that are pro-European and then he doesn't do anything about it.

 “Dacic is not politically independent”

Radio Free Europe: Is the poor result of the Socialist Party of Serbia a partner of the Serbian Progressive Party coalition led by the head of Serbian diplomacy, Ivica Dacic?

Daniel Serwer: I think the success of this second pro-rus option is part of the explanation. He [Ivica Dacic], in my opinion, is not a serious political force in Serbia. He invests in the ruling party. His party has a historical background, but not true political independence. He's really like Vuchy, just another mask, another face.