Experts: Russia in a difficult position after Ukrainian offensive

Ukraine's counteroffensive in the northeastern part of the country appears to have caught Russia by surprise in the nearly 7 month war. The rapid and chaotic retreat of troops to the Kharkiwi region, in which several weapons and ammunition were left behind, was a major blow to the Russian image. This was the biggest military defeat in Ukraine since Moscow withdrew its forces from areas near Kiev after a failed attempt to invade the capital at the beginning of the occupation.

Ukrainian offensive appears to have left the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin without an adequate response. This has angered Russian bloggers and military nationalists, even exposing some domestic political divisions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not mention the situation in northeastern Ukraine during the inauguration of a national park in Moscow.

In fact, Ukrainian counteroffensiva seems to have placed the Kremlin in a difficult position.

The defence ministry said troop withdrawal was aimed at strengthening Russian positions in Donbas, a somewhat weak excuse, given that Russia-controlled areas in the Kharkiv region provided a key point for Moscow's operations in the southern region of Donnetsk.

The Russian Defence Ministry has not offered any details about the withdrawal, but it published a map Sunday showing that Russian troops had been backed along a narrow strip of land on the border with Russia, a silent admission of the strong progress of Ukrainian forces.

Russian state television and other government-controlled media followed suit, not speaking directly about the withdrawal of Russian troops.

A video published by the Russian Defence Ministry showed a Russian helicopter attacking Ukrainian troops who were trying to cross the Oskil River in a previously calm part of the Kharkivi region, an admission of the vast extent of Ukrainian attack.

Many people in Russia blame Western weapons and fighters for the lack of Russian Army progress in Ukraine. “is not Ukraine, but the whole NATO that is fighting us”, says Alexander Kots, a war correspondent for the pro-Kremlin newspaper “Comsomolskaya Pravda”.

The new Ukrainian offensive, which has increased the country's morale as the war passed the day of 200 on Sunday, can create conditions for further progress in the east and elsewhere.

But it can also trigger an even more violent response to Moscow, leading to a new and dangerous escalation of fighting. On Sunday evening, Russian missiles hit Ukrainian infrastructure, causing power cuts in several regions.

“Kremlin seems surprised and has not yet come up with a plan explained this to Russia's advantage, so that the media are largely ignoring bad news pending a directive from Moscow”, says Mark Galeotti, professor at London College, who has specialised in Russian security issues.

According to him, the situation seems to be coming out of Moscow control.

In a severe reflection of internal tensions provoked by Kiev's successes, Chechnya regional leader, backed by the Kremlin, Ramzan Cadyrov, openly criticised the Russian Defence Ministry for “mistakes that made Ukraine's progress possible.

Criticals by Mr. Cadyrov, who has sent Chechen units to fight in Ukraine and has repeatedly called for more aggressive actions, have uncovered new divisions over the course of fighting in Ukraine.

On the other hand, Liberal politician Boris Nadezhdin warned in the <x0 channel. NTV” that Russia will not be able to defeat Ukraine and called for negotiations.

Mr. Nadezhdin's comments seem to reflect growing doubts in some Russian officials' circles about the future of the military operation in Ukraine and may be part of efforts to promote possible policy changes.

Ukrainian offensive and the Kremlin's failure to come up with a quick response has angered Russian nationalists and military bloggers, who criticised the Russian Ministry of Defence for failing to predict and prevent counteroffensive.

Ukraine has made extensive mobilization with the aim of achieving an active army of 1 million fighters. Russia has continued to rely on a limited contingent of volunteers, fearing that a massive mobilization could spur wider discontent and cause political instability.

Russia has not indicated on the number of troops involved in the war, but based on Western countries' assessments, the Kremlin had originally planned the delocation of over 200,000 Russian soldiers to Ukraine. Western officials say recruiting new volunteers and using private military contractors failed to compensate for major losses in the battle.

Although Moscow has not reported its losses since March, when it said 1,351 Russian soldiers were killed in the first month of war, Western countries estimate that more than 25,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine and more than 80 thousand other soldiers have been wounded, captured or defected. / VOA/