What are international analysts' expectations for Kosovo- Serbia

Recent tensions between Kosovo and Serbia have prompted the European Union and NATO to invite Prime Minister Albin Kurti and President Aleksandar Vuciq to Brussels on August 17th and 18th.

This will be the third meeting in Brussels among them. The first meeting was June 2021, and the second was in July.

None of these meetings produced results.

Experts are not optimistic about the current meeting either.

What promotes even more distrust is the harsh rhetoric of Kosovo and Serbia leaders.

The “would be totally irresponsible to rule out the possibility of new tensions and a new conflict, despite these aggressive Belgrade policies. It is possible”, Prime Minister Kurti “toldReuters” on August 10th.

Don't kill people. And we don't want to kill anyone, we don't mean... I'm telling you they're preparing the liquidations of our people in the north”, Serbian President Vuciq said the following day.

Following these statements, the European Union warned them that the high-level <x0-level politicians from both sides would be held responsible for the escalation of the situation leading to increasing tensions and resistance for violence in the region”.

US Ambassador to Belgrade Christopher Hill, though concerned about the promotional rhetoric, is more optimistic about their dialogue.

“Personally, I think we have more reason for optimism than pessimism, but also that all sides should hold back their rhetoric a little, because there were some harsh words, which do not really help this process”, Ambassador Christopher Hill said during his interview with Serbian public television on 13 August.

However, analysts are gloomy in their predictions.

This process is ridiculous. Not from the beginning have the goals of dialogue been determined. Clear aim should be mutual recognition and sovereignty for Kosovo and Serbia. If Serbia is not prepared to accept this, it is a waste of time to dig the ends of small agreements”, American expert David Phillips told Voice of America.

While for Mrs Ivana Stradner from the American Institute “Enterprise”, risk of EU failure in the Balkans, risks losing the European bloc in terms of credibility.

“I fear that the EU does not have a clear plan for the Balkans. This is my main concern why I have little hope for the next meeting that it will solve all the problems that have existed for over a decade. This will be a serious test for the EU if they are willing and able to resolve this crisis before autumn. It should be as soon as they act, because they recently announced further enlargement of the EU and gave other countries like Moldova the opportunity to join the European Union. If they don't send a strong signal to the Balkans then the point for countries like Ukraine and Moldova, it would be if the EU's commitment to enlargement is a false pledge”, Mrs. Stradner said of the Voice of America.

Dialogue in Brussels began in March 2011, the first two years only technical and then at the level of political leaders.

The first agreement in July 2011 on free movement was what sparked the recent tensions in Kosovo. The agreement enabled citizens to cross the border with ID and a document written “input/ex1> that is issued at the border. Serbia began its implementation immediately, while Kosovo did not, allowing persons with Serbian documents to enter Kosovo without the need for an additional document.

Prime Minister Kurti decided to seek its implementation, which led to tensions and roadblocks in the north. Kosovo also decided to implement the next agreement agreement of 11 years ago, which urges Kosovo Serb residents to use Kosovo license plates. Currently they use Serbia's license plates.

In 2013, then Prime Minister Hashim Thaci and his Serbian counterpart, Ivica Dacic, signed a 15-point agreement on normalising relations, which, among other things, envisioned the establishment of the Kosovo Serb Communists Association.

US State Department official Gabriel Escobar has demanded that this issue be discussed on August 18th.

But the fact that over 30 signed agreements, a host of which has never been understood whether they really apply, promotes fear of losing confidence in the EU's ability to score success with this dialogue.

It is not up to the EU to impose solutions on partners, especially those partners who have clearly expressed their strategic goal is to join the EU. The road to the EU is actually the tool the EU has and of course we are using it”, EU spokesman Peter Stano said recently.

Serbia has never gone to Brussels with good will, or willingly to achieve any real results. Of course, dialogue is important and parties should stay in touch with each other. But there is no reason to think that Serbia's approach this time would be different from what was in the past when it appeared and tried to humiliate and mock the Kosovo delegation. On August 18th, we will see a repeat of what we've seen before”, the Voice of America Phillips said.

The European Union has made a lot of mistakes so far after using much more carrot than the stick. But the other question is: why does the EU, especially after the French president's first statement several years ago, Macro for further EU enlargement, not make clear whether this expansion is real or not? + I think we have to deal with leaders in the West, they have to be honest and make it clear if they really want them to be part of the European Union, because corruption in the Balkans is generally very high and many countries are currently not full democracy”, adds Mrs. Stradner.

Do not grant visa liberalisation to Kosovo, the endless postponements of the process for all Balkan countries have only weakened Brussels' influence in the region, says Mrs. Stradner.

With it, Michael Leigh, former European Commission Director General for Enlargement, who told Voice of America that the EU's political level is still not accepting the new ideas of academics who say the membership process must change for example. Making it part of the common EU market to the Balkan countries, even before membership becomes really reliable.

The “Some organisations have come up with other more ambitious ideas, so the entire enlargement process can gradually be carried out, so that countries can somehow become <x1->and countries” step by step, and not after they have met all conditions. These ideas were not taken into consideration by the political level yet,” said of the Voice of America, Mr. Leigh.

He says the pledges he recently made to the EU for Ukraine and other countries of the former Soviet bloc for accelerated membership only jeopardise the even greater weakening of confidence the Balkans have in the EU.