Analyst: Erdogan's Future Depends on Russia

Moscow recently sent $5 billion to Turkey, citing the construction of a nuclear power plant in the country as a reason. But according to Russia, another ten billion will be sent in the coming weeks.

The introduction of the strong currency in the country, the dollar, is a welcome development for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the election campaign in 2023, while local currency, lira, has dropped and inflation has reached nearly 80 percent.

By helping Russia avoid sanctions, Turkey provides a good amount of revenue for its balance of payments, and that would help it (Ankara) strengthen the freedom, reduce inflation and Erdogan win the” elections, says Timothy Asch, representative of the PLAYA City Management Company in London.

To protect his close ties with Vladimir Putin, Mr. Erdogan has refused to implement Western sanctions against Russia. Earlier this month, at the Black Sea resort in Soci, the two leaders held talks on further boosting trade ties.

Due to the attack on Ukraine on February 24th this year, Turkey has doubled Russian oil imports.

Russian oligarchs continue to anchor their superyachs on Turkish harbors, knowing Turkish authorities will not seize them.

Analysts say Mr. Erdogan has become a valuable Putin ally.

Turkey has become de facto a black knight. In academic language, this means a state that is willing to help a country to which sanctions are burdened, at least to soften them. And Russia sees Turkey under this light, which may be useful in terms of developing its economic ties, while Western companies leave the country”, says Maria Shagina, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Turkey and the United Nations brokered an agreement to export Ukrainian wheat to world markets and its export operations are based in Istanbul. President Erdogan claims he is credited with reaching the agreement, saying it was possible only because of his close ties, Putin.

Analysts warn that the Russian president could exploit relations with Mr. Erdogan and increase Turkey's dependence on Russia to bypass Western sanctions on technology by introducing Ankara into a conflict course with its allies.

In my opinion, what would create division would be high technology. In both civilian and military fields, Russia is denied high technology to damage its supply lines. And if Turkish companies were used to import banned goods to pass them to Russia later, this would require that sanctions be imposed against Turkey”, says Atilla Yesilada, with the firm âGlobal Source Partners, a company specialising for New York-based financial markets.

In conditions where Turkey is suffering from a poor economic situation, sanctions, analysts warn, would trigger a devastating financial crisis. At the same time, analysts say Mr. Erdogan “has bet on Russia”, in hopes that Russian trade and support will revive his country's economy before next year's elections.