Europe's last summer before Russian great winter

Even as fighting continues to toughen up in Ukraine, war is becoming sensitive across the continent in the form of rising prices of food products, fear of gas shortages, and concerns about the economic situation.

And with Russian President Vladimir Putin spreading willingness to use food, gas and fertilizations as weapons in the fight against Western democracies that are arming Ukraine and sanctioning Moscow, things can deteriorate at a fast pace.

The “were the harsh Russian winters that stopped Napoleon”, said political expert Ivan Krastev. “It was the harsh Russian winters that stopped Hitler in 1941. Putin's idea now is to make it a harsh winter inside Europe”.

As the war drags on -- or even escapes to the wild -- experts are predicting that European governments will come under pressure from the poor, the hungry and cold voters.

Add here to a possible increase in refugee flows due to the global food crisis, the heat wave that is destroying Europe's fertile land and the risk of new infections by COVID-19, as well as the severing of supply chains this winter-are small why some are wondering how long Western governments will be able to maintain their unity and readiness.

You'll see more pressure from Europeans saying: Let's stop the war now”, said Krastev, who heads the Centre for Liberal Strategy.

A research conducted during spring and monitored by the European Parliament found that close to 60% of European Union citizens said they were unable to afford the increase in food or energy prices. Somewhere around 59% said European “values like freedom and democracy should be priorities, even if these have consequences in prices and on living costs”. But the report stressed that the highest support came from those who have more economic security -- and fell to more than 50% among those who have difficulty paying bills.

“You can end up with many people with serious shortcomings as well as a large number of people on the street protesting the loss of the workplace or throwing stones at politicians, rioting of the rebellious type Extinction Rebellion”, said Tim Benton, director of the Environment and Society Programme from Chatham House.

The question is, to what extent are European governments willing to counter a Russian economic attack?

Energy as weapons”

As a major exporter of food, fertilizer, gas and oil, Russia possesses a significant presence in the European economy. This presence will only gain more voice as temperatures drop, and cold-and-circumstary households start racing with producers for natural gas.

So far, 12 European Union states have experienced full or financial halt to Russian gas. And this week, Russia halted the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that supplies Germany with gas -- as well as France, Italy and Austria -- by frustrated European efforts to build winter stocks.

The anticipated maintenance is expected to last until July 21st, but among the capitals there are growing concerns that Moscow will find the cause of extending the gap, likely indefinitely.

Robert Habeck, German Economy Minister, warned this month that “a political nightmare” that would threaten social cohesion if gas supplies are scarce, these supplies should be rationalised by the Government. And on Sunday, French Economy Minister Bruno Le Muire said he believes that a “a suspension of Russian gas” is the most likely “opsoption”.

In Germany, politicians have prepared emergency gas contingent plans that could dictate which companies should be shut down first. Local authorities are reducing road lighting and reducing temperatures in open-air swimming pools. Berlin is also considering a 9 billion-euro rescue package for the Unipper giant, Germany's largest gas importer.

Some European Union politicians have hit with a challenging assessment. “Putin uses energy as a weapon and he will try to separate us, yet after success”, EU Commissioner for Internal Affairs Thierry Bretton said.

The European Union has adopted new laws, calling on countries to secure gas in time for winter, with reserves reaching up to 62%. But with the already-filled alternative gazers and the tightening of limited natural gas imports, there is a small capacity to make up for a possible shortage - implying that governments would be forced to seek out consumers to reduce demand or to make sectoral disruptions drasticly.

In the event of a Russian break, politicians will likely begin to shut down non-real sectors such as the automotive sector, followed by other industries, then social services and at the end of residential heating, according to Simone Tagliapietatra, a senior energy analyst from Bruegel. This will be a major political burden”, he said. I think this will be very challenging for our governments”.

Those who will be in the most difficult place to pay their energy bills will be “with vulnerable “, said Chieran Pradeep, co-ordinator from the ruling coalition's Energy Rights Group. But many Europeans from the middle class can also enter energy poverty for the first time.

Spending a disproportionate amount of revenues in municipal services can cause “ancth mental”, Pradeep said. But it can also lead to self-recognition by connoisseurs in some places like the United Kingdom -- and putting themselves in danger of freezing to death.

The danger Putin will stop the full gas for the European Union “is very possible”, according to Alexander Gabuev, an expert from the Carnegie Centre. “Putin hopes more political protests will occur and then the unity for Ukraine” will collapse.

 Putin's urine plan

On the front of the food, prices rose significantly after the Russian blockade of Ukraine - a large supplier of wheat and food oil. Global food prices have been reduced, but are extremely high compared to the same period last year. And the worst could be if the prices of fertilizer related to the cost of natural gas - stay high in successive seasons.

The prices of agricultural products in the world have increased by 30% since the Russian invasion, with inflation reaching 10% in non-alcoholic food and drink prices, according to the European Union report. The high costs of fertilizer mean that farmers around the world will use them frugally, and therefore generate lower productivity, with the potential to escape into a shopping crisis to a full-scale emergency supply situation.

Food prices are not expected to drop from current high levels until December 2023, said Beata Yavorcik, the European Bank's chief of economics for construction and development.

As an exporter to the food network, Europe is better isolated than the poor countries in Africa and the Middle East, when governments are more dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat imports and where consumers spend more of their salaries on keeping up.

“I certainly wouldn't have predicted that we would see hunger in Europe, but of course prices could go up further”, said John Buffes, a senior World Bank economist.

Globally, the food system is wavering in the sharp corners of the knife: recent UN figures show that the number of people suffering from hunger increased by 50 million in 2021 compared with 2020 that the number could increase only in the event of war broke out between the two barns.

Up to 17% of the world's commercial calories have been blocked due to export controls imposed by opportunist or frightened governments, Yavorcik said. If Russia imposes a strict ban on wheat exports in a year when it is expecting abundant harvests this could make things worse considerably. According to some reports, Russia deliberately destroyed wheat fields in Ukraine this month as the harvest campaign began.

The case of the worst scenario from a European point of view is that if the food crisis triggers a new wave of mass migration, placing even more pressure on political systems. Analysts, including the head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, have put parallels between the present time and unrest over the price of bread that preceded the 2011 Arab Spring.

Putin's urine “Plani is... to promote refugees from North Africa and the Middle East, areas usually fed by Ukraine”, said historian Timothy Snyder, who wrote earlier this month: “This would generate instability in the European Union”.

Many years of crisis

Russian pressure could not come at a worse time for the continent.

Europe is still wavering from pandemic efficiency, when the shut-down of the economy sectors seriously damaged the global economy. After two years of shock, the revival- up to the scale that was earlier - has been hampered by chains of supply and concerns about the effects of war. Another follow-up effect is expected by the European Central Bank, which is expected to increase interest rates in next week -- which is the first increase after more than a decade -- to fight the Eurozone's striking inflation.

Signs of an economic slowdown are now evident, with the reduction of productivity for the first time in two years in June and with the service sector that has also slowed, according to a business analysis. The Eurozone's economic growth “is showing signs of fluctuation”, economist Chris Willimson from S&P Global said.

For now, the European Commission insists that the European Union can avoid a recession, but acknowledges that growth is fragility, and the bloc is highly affected by the inertation of 2021. A total drain from the gas would likely push the bloc towards a recession, the Commission acknowledges.

Even before inflation and shortages began to emerge, a survey in the 10 countries of the Council of Europe for Foreign Relations revealed that Europeans are divided in the course of action, with 35% favouring a peace as quickly as possible, even at the cost of the Christians concession, and 22% believe Russia's defeat is the only way to peace.

The challenge for those who seek to maintain the current course will be to do what they can to eliminate Putin's pressure, while explaining to voters that this is what they can do.

The European Commission has stressed the importance of preserving energy “in all ways of daily life”, but points out that responsibility falls on national governments to proclaim this to their citizens.

“You cannot hear the European Commission telling people how much time they spend in shower, this would be a challenge to our reinforcement”, said EU spokesman Tim McPhie.

For many Europeans, consumption reduction will not be resolved, while increased prices force them to choose between food and heating in their homes. In Belgium, utility receipts increased in the quickest way in the EU -- up 65.5% -- compared to May 2021. In part as a result, people are heading towards food banks “at unprecedented levels”, said Joseph Mottar, a co-ordinator from the Food Bank's Belge Federation.

If Putin's attack is exceeded, Europeans will likely have to learn to travel less, spend more carefully on food, and dress more fat rather than release the thermostat. Russian winter, when it comes, it seems to last. /Politico/Periscope/