Former Russian prime minister shows how long war will last in Ukraine, and which other countries are at risk

He was Vladimir Putin's first prime minister, but Mikhail Kasyanov never imagined in his worst nightmares that his former chief would launch a large-scale war against Ukraine, writes France 24.

Kasynov, Russia's prime minister from 2000 to 2004, said he expected the war could last until two years, but was convinced that Russia could return to a democratic path.

The 64-year-old, who defended close ties with the West as prime minister, said that, like many other Russians, he did not believe in weeks before the war that it would actually happen.

Kasynov realized that Putin was not bluffing only when he saw him calling the country's highest leadership for a security council meeting three days before the invasion on 24 February.

When I saw the Russian Security Council meeting, I realized that yes, there will be a” war, Kasyanov said.

He added that he felt Putin was already not thinking properly. I just know these people and seeing them I saw Putin's already out there. Not in the medical sense, but in the political sense,” he said.

“I knew a Putin differently”.

After being dismissed by Putin, Kassynov joined the Russian opposition and became one of the most vocal critics of the Kremlin. He is now the leader of the opposition People's Freedom party, or Parnas.

Total lawlessness

Kasynov said Putin, a former KGB agent who turns 70 in October, has managed over the past 20 years to build a system based on impunity and fear.

These are the achievements of a system that, with Putin's encouragement as head of state, has begun to function in a more cynical, cruel way than in the final stages of the Soviet Union”, he said.

This is basically a KGB system based on total lawlessness. Surely they do not expect any chastisement. ”

Kasynov said he had left Russia because of the war and lived in Europe, but he refused to reveal his whereabouts because of concerns about his security.

His close ally and opposition politician, Boris Nemtsov, was shot dead near the Kremlin in 2015.

Putin's most famous critic, Alexei Navajo, 46, was poisoned with a nervous agent in 2020 and is now in prison.

Kasynov predicted the war could last up to two years and said it is necessary for Ukraine to win.

If Ukraine falls, the Baltic states will be next,” he said.

The outcome of the war will also determine Russia's future, he said.

Kasynov said he <x0-categorically” disagreed with French President Emmanuel Macron's suggestion that Putin should not be humiliated.

He also rejected calls for Ukraine to issue territory to end the war.

“What did Putin do to deserve this?” he said. “This is a very pragmatic attitude.

I believe this is wrong and I hope the West will not go that way. ”

Great tasks

Kasynov believes Putin will eventually be replaced by a “cuazi-subsecuted” controlled by security services.

But a successor will not be able to control the system for a long time and eventually Russia will organise free and fair elections, the former prime minister said.

“I am sure Russia will return on the road to building a democratic state,”, he said.

He estimated it would take about a decade to conduct the country's “de-communisation” and “de-putinisation”.

This will be difficult, especially after this criminal war.

He said trust should be restored with European countries, which he called Russia's “natural partners”.

Critics have in the past accused the Russian opposition of breaking up without hope, but Kassynov said he is convinced things would now be different.

I have no doubt that now after the tragedy we are all seeing, the opposition will join.

The Russians will face a major task of rebuilding their country, he said.

Everything will have to be rebuilt again. In essence, a whole group of economic and social reforms must start over.

These are major and difficult tasks and they must be carried out. ”