Neutrality status that can restore security to Ukraine

“has had agreements and understanding on several topics. Today, the most significant progress has been made since the start of negotiations”, he has said.

Russia and Ukraine have begun Peace talks Since 28 February, four days after the Russian state has begun its neighbor's invasion.

In the final round of direct negotiations held in Istanbul, Ukrainian negotiators have submitted several proposals to Russian counterparts for halting aggression. Among other things, they have come up with the idea of neutral status for their country, meaning giving up any membership efforts in any foreign military alliance. In return, they have sought assurances of security that would be offered from other countries, such as: Canada, Turkey, Israel.

Russian negotiators have said they will review these proposals and that RussiaAt the same time, it will reduce military activity near the cities of Chernihiv and Kiev, with the aim of boosting mutual confidence and creating conditions for further negotiations.

The West said that Russia's vows They must be looked into; Ukraine has said it has not seen military activity decrease on the ground, while, according to Russia, progress towards the end of the conflict still does not.

Ukraine's neutrality, however, is something Moscow loves. One of the reasons Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify conquest Ukraine's has been Kiev's ambition to join NATO.

UkraineWhen it declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, it has pledged neutrality, but has changed its stance when Russia annexed its Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Five years later, it has changed the Constitution to include NATO membership as a state goal.

Even though NATO has not given any deadlines for Ukraine's membership in its ranks, Putin has steadfastly rejected further expansion to the east, claiming, without any evidence, that NATO's activities near Russian borders pose a threat to Russia's security.

“NATO and the establishment of its military infrastructure near Russian borders are possible threats to our country's security”, Putin has said.

In international law, a country's neutral status in broad terms implies its non-intervention in the military conflicts of third states. Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, Sweden, Finland are examples of neutrality in Europe. But they all have their own armies and invest in them, having the right to defend themselves if someone violates their neutrality.

The spokesman for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, is quoted as saying that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are discussing the Austrian model for Ukraine.

In Austria's case, status of neutrality is a consequence of the Cold War. Austria has approved it in exchange for ending the Allied Forces occupation during World War II. Austria's neutrality has become law in 1955, and since then this country has not participated in wars, joins military alliances, and offers no territory for foreign bases.

Some historians and neutral experts express optimism that the remnant of neutral Ukraine could bring an end to the war.

Leos Mueller, historian at Stockholm University and author of the book “Neutrality in World History”, says about Expose program of Radio Free Europe that the Austrian model could also function for Ukraine.

What we need is to end this war as soon as possible. It is meaningless to both sides, because it is clear that Russia cannot succeed in what it wants. Ukraine, on the other hand, cannot defeat Russia. It can free territories, but eventually it has to deal with Russia”.

“ This War It is a kind of negotiated solution, which should be acceptable to Russia. And, as I see, what may be acceptable to Russia is Austria's” model, Mueller says.

Putin has also demanded the demilitarisation of UkraineBut Muller says this is an unimaginable request for a neutral country. According to him, neutrality only makes sense if the state has enough capacity to protect it. Mueller says the United Nations can play a major role in ensuring security for Ukraine.

The United Nations does not play any constructive or significant role in the case [of Ukraine]. But if we look at Austria, which is the most relevant case of neutrality, [its capital] Vienna has the status of United Nations headquarters. So it would be much harder for countries like Russia to attack Ukraine if Kiev had the status of the United Nations headquarters. It would be a direct attack on the United Nations or international organisations”, Mueller says.

Pascal Lottaz, neutrals' lecture at the Weseda Institute for Advanced Studies, says confident that Ukraine's neutrality leads to the end of the war.

Speaking to Expose, he says Austria's model may be the only option that all sides agree to: Ukraine, Russia, NATO and the United States.

The Australian has not been attacked for 70 years. So it could work. But it may not work, since Belgium has been neutral for 70 years and was then attacked. So there's a mixed balance. Ukrainians Please try. The last time you were neutral was between 1993 and 2014. And how many times have you been attacked by Russia in that period? Never. Thus, Ukraine's neutrality has proved to produce security for Ukrainian”, says Lotaz.

According to a survey conducted in March, from the Wright Centre in Ukraine, 44 percent of Ukrainian respondents have said their country should join NATO. The figure represents a 2 - percent decline compared to a poll conducted in February before the Russian occupation.

According to the latest poll, 42% believe Ukraine should continue co-operating with NATO, but not membership.

Lottaz, from the useada Institute, says the most difficult part of the negotiations will be that for Ukrainian security guarantors, if Ukraine agrees to neutrality. So, who's going to be an acceptable guarantor for the Ukrainians and the Russians?

All I can imagine is the Russians agree. UkraineIn the long run, become a member of the European Union. Not immediately, but this door is left open. Then, when realised, the EU would become a guarantor of Ukraine's security, because the EU has common security and defence policy, which in itself is a form of security guarantee”, says Lottaz.

Katharine A. M. Wright, international policy legislation at Newcastle University, agrees that Ukraine's neutrality is the solution, but says the formula must be done in that way that Putin to present him as a victory before his people.

Putin's quick victory plan in Ukraine has failed and he must save his face, Wright says of Expose.

I think diplomacy is the way out of this war and, therefore, a neutrality that is acceptable to the entire society of Ukraine. But, no matter how war ends, there has to be a way that, unfortunately, can save Putin's face and not look like a failure in front of the Russian people, because we're dealing with a dictator, not democracy”, says Wright.

Ukraine's neutrality idea is being heralded at a time when several other neutral countries in Europe are thinking of joining the NATO military alliance.

War in Ukraine has made Finland and Sweden feel exposed to Russia, says Leos Mueller, historian at Stockholm University. But he and his fellow examiners say it should not deter Ukraine from its neutrality, since, according to them, it is the most real option for the end of the war.

In fact, neutrality can solve a dilemma, but surely the negotiated agreement between Russia and Ukraine would have to address other issues beyond.

Some of the demands Putin filed earlier included even the so-called “densification” of Ukraine, even though his claims that the Ukrainian government is a neo-Nazi junta have no basis.

It is certainly expected to be the issue of territories, what will be done with the Ukrainian Crimea Peninsula, annexed by Russia, with the Donbas region declaring independence and others.

Away from negotiating tables Ukrainian cities They still are. Attack scenes And fierce fighting.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who is helping mediate negotiations, has said that “is not easy to negotiate, as the war continues and civilians die”.

The United Nations has confirmed the killing of over 1,100 civilians by the end of March. / REL