3 minutes agoDoes Turkey risk being a secure “tree for the Russians?
Periskopi(4 years ago)
(4 years ago)Russian invasion in Ukraine has sparked a wave of Western sanctions against Moscow, and at least one oligarch and thousands of other Russians have arrived in Turkey, considering this country safe to stay, invest and preserve assets, despite Turkey as a NATO member. But this situation, when Turkey [...]
Russian invasion in Ukraine has sparked a wave of Western sanctions against Moscow, and at least one oligarch and thousands of other Russians have arrived in Turkey, considering this country safe to stay, invest and preserve assets, despite Turkey as a NATO member.
But this situation, when Turkey is considered a safe haven, increases the risk for Turkey's government, banks and businesses, which can face difficult decisions or even fines if the United States and other countries increase pressure on Moscow by <x0-second sanctions”.
Why is Turkey attractive to the Russians?
Turkey has said Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine is unacceptable, but in principle opposes sanctions.
Turkey's economy, but hit by the current crisis and increasing inflation, largely depends on Russian gas, oil, trade and tourism.
About 14,000 Russians are believed to have arrived in Turkey from the war outbreak on 24 February.
Much of it has had cash on its hands because of the American cartel jam and the challenges of basic operations in banks.
It has been reported that many Russians are buying property, viewing this as a safe investment.
Roman Abramovich, one of the dozens of Russian oligarchs sanctioned by the West, has visited Turkey and his two super-smarts, worth about $1.2 billion, were anchored in Turkish environments last week.
Oligarchs can invest even more, some sources have said for the Reuters news agency.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said on Saturday that the oligarchs and Russian citizens “naturally” that they are welcome and can do business in Turkey, based on international law.
Can the safe haven last?
Western governments have already confiscated several oligarch assets, frozen Russian reserves and removed some institutions from the SWIFT banking system.
They could pressure Ankara to operate in other countries where there is space.
Analysts believe the West could impose secondary sanctions on those who do business with the main target -- Russia.
If the humanitarian tragedy continues and [Russian president, Vladimir] Putin gives no indication of the halt, I think that secondary sanctions are inevitable”, Hasan Akbas of the Istanbul-based Strategic Consultative Services, which handles sanctions, has said.
“The West will have more attention to places that can return to safe havens”, he said.
Ankara's “Hands would be linked... and there would be no choice but to take a tougher stance on Russia”.
This could shake up Turkish banks and Russian customers' companies or do business abroad.
In 2020, the US Treasury Department has imposed secondary sanctions on the Industry of Defence Directorate, its chief and others who have been linked to the purchase of Russian S-400 missiles from Ankara.
However, Turkey's efforts to mediate between Moscow and Kiev may influence the avoidance of sanctions.
Another round of peace talks is expected to take place this week in Turkey.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has welcomed Ankara's diplomatic role, adding that “ne would very much like Ankara to implement all sanctions”.
How are banks and companies being prepared?
Facing a new wave of Russian consumers, Russian banks have resisted some demands for deposits and transfers, as well as increased controls for fear of violating sanctions.
This has angered some Russians.
But this shows that banks are attentive not to repeat a situation a few years ago, when the state-owned lender bank, Halkbank, has been prosecuted in the United States, having been accused of helping Iran avoid US sanctions.
The banking regulator has said he has given no instructions to limit citizens of any state.
But a source within the regulator has said the sanctions are considered the new “risk of” and that companies have met several times to discuss, from the outbreak of war.
Akbas has said that large Turkish companies have more than $10 billion as assets in Russia, and Moscow is now putting pressure on them to pay workers, or risk bankruptcy.
Most of them do more businesses in the West and have to make decisions on whether to leave Russia, as many American and British companies have done.
Any imposed sanctions could harm Turkey's image among foreign investors.
Its image has been hit last year when an international observer company, Financial Action Task Force, has listed Turkey on the grey list for failure to prevent money laundering and financing of terrorism. / REL
