BBC Analysis: What is Vladimir Putin thinking and planning

What are you thinking and planning Vladimir Putin? It's the question we've been asking for months. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Let me get the denial first. I don't have any <x0-top crystal” for predictions. I can't even talk to Putin directly on the phone.

Former US President George W Bush once said that he had seen Vladimir Putin in the eye and asked whether “had any feelings in his soul”. Look how well this ended for the relationship between Russia and the West.

Thus, getting into the mind of the Kremlin's leader is an unforgiving task. But it's important to try. Maybe now more than ever. In light of recent nuclear threats from Moscow. There is no doubt that the Russian president is under pressure. The so-called “his special military operation” in Ukraine has gone wrong. He was planning on happening in eight days, but, look, we're almost eight months later and there's no end to the horizon.

The Kremlin acknowledges significant “loss” of troops. In recent weeks, the Russian army has lost territory in Ukraine, which it had occupied before. To increase the number of troops, President Putin last month declared partial mobilization. Something he insisted he would not do. Meanwhile, sanctions continue to degrade the Russian economy.

So back to Putin's mood. Will he think he was wrong? That his decision to invade was a fundamental mistake?

Don't make that assumption.

Putin's “perceptions direct the entire situation in this conflict”, claims Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor-in-chief of the Russian newspaper Nezavisaya Gazeta.

He is the authoritarian leader of a nuclear power. He's the irrefutable leader in this country. He has some beliefs and strong perceptions that drive him crazy. He has come to believe that this is existential from a point of view. Not just for him, but for Russia's future”, he adds.

If this conflict is existential, how far is President Putin prepared to go to win it?

In recent months, senior Russian officials (including Putin himself) have issued significant suggestions that the Kremlin leader was prepared to use nuclear weapons in this conflict.

“

But I think it's irresponsible for him to talk about it. ”

This week's intensive Russian bombings against Ukraine suggest the Kremlin is, at least, determined to escalate the situation with Kiev.

Even with the West?

“He is trying to avoid direct confrontation with the West, but at the same time he is prepared for”, veteran liberal politician Grigory Yavlinsky believes.

I'm more afraid of the possibility of nuclear conflict. And, in the second place, I'm afraid of an endless fight”.

But the infinite “ ” requires endless resources. This is something Russia doesn't seem to have. The wave of missile attacks in Ukraine's cities is a dramatic demonstration of force, but how long can Moscow maintain this?

Could this flood of rockets continue for days, weeks, months? Many experts suspect that we have enough rockets”, Remchukov says.

“also, from a military point of view, no one has said what would be the sign of the final Russian victory? What is the symbol of victory? In 1945 it was the flag on Berlin. What is the criterion for success now? A flag on Kiev? Over Kherson? Over Kharkiv? I don't know. Nobody knows.”

It's not even clear that Vladimir Putin knows.

In February, the Kremlin's target appears to have been Ukraine's rapid defeat. By forcing Russia's neighbour to return to Moscow's orbit without an extended struggle. He miscalculated. He underestimated the commitment of the Ukrainian army and people to protect their land and apparently overestimated his army's abilities.

What's he thinking now? Is Vladimir Putin's current plan to cement control over Ukrainian territory, which he claims has annexed and then freeze the conflict? Or is he determined to continue until all Ukraine returns to the realm of the Kremlin's influence?

Ukrainian subx0> State in its current configuration will be a constant, direct and clear threat to Russia. I believe the goal of our future actions should be the complete dissolution of the Ukrainian political regime”, Dimitri Medvedev said.

If Medvedev's words reflect President Putin's opinion, expect a prolonged and bloody conflict.

But, inevitably, Putin's actions abroad are bringing consequences within the country. Over the years, the Kremlin carefully cultivated Putin's image of “Z. Stability”, encouraging the Russian public to believe as long as he was at the helm, they would be safe.

This is a tough ad right now.

The previous “contract between Putin and society was that “I protect”, Remchukov says.

For many years the main slogan was “predictability”. What kind of predictability is there today? The concept is over. Nothing is predictable. My reporters don't know if they'll get a call when they get home today. ”

Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine surprised many. But not Mr. Yavlinsky.

I think Putin had moved in that direction. Year after year he was building the way to what we now have”, says Mr. Yavlinsky.

For example, destroying independent media. He started it in 2001. It destroyed independent business. He started it in 2003. Then 2014 and what happened to Crime and Donbas. You must be blind not to see.

Russia's problem is our system. Here a system was created that created such a person as Putin. The issue of the Western role in establishing this system is a very serious issue.

The problem is that this system did not create a society. There's a lot of great people in Russia. But there is no civil society. That's why Russia cannot resist.