From virus to recovery: How the world will change for the next 18 months

We're under quarantine. The supermarket missiles are empty. Flights are canceled.

Workers quit their jobs, became teachers of their children at home. A conservative government, nationalized railways, and is paying people who don't work. And we're still alone in the second week.

In less than 2 weeks, Britain has experienced a kind of social and political turmoil, which occurs normally only after being beheaded by a king, or when crowds storm the royal palace. But is this a brief moment of national solidarity, or “abnormality” new”?

It all depends on the duration of the coronary crisis. Experts believe that a vaccine for Covid-19 (the disease caused by the Sars virus- The CoV-2 is still at least 18 months away, which makes Donald Trump's promises that the US will be “reliating” within three weeks, to look at the best optimistic case.

In Britain a report by researchers at London's Royal College estimated that elements of the new normality social distance, self-isolation, impasses can last until September 2021. So what can happen as the coronary crisis continues? Consider what experts say.

First month: Effects

One thing is almost certain: things will get worse before they get better. I think the epidemic will definitely continue for the next three months”- says Dr. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East England. He believes that restrictions on moves will become more severe over the next 30 days.

The city's centers will be devastated. Shops, bars, restaurants and bars will stay closed. In their absence, supermarkets and food offering companies will flourish. April is the month when the British Health Service (NHS) expects the first pit of pandemic.

All the data, it shows that in terms of the spread of the virus, we're on Italy's way. The United Kingdom has 2.8 doctors per 1,000 people a rate lower than Spain and Italy, with 4.1 doctors for 1,000 patients. The number of patients needing critical care will rise dramatically, and the NHS is likely to pass into the collapse.

Third month: Economic recession

It is hoped that by July, we will have a significant slowdown in the spread of the epidemic. “I doubt until we see this thing really”- says Hunter, who adds that it would be surprised if the impasse hadn't been removed by that time. “We hope it will happen before the end of May, but it may not happen”, he points out.

If Trump's promise to re-open the American economy will be realised within a month, it seems likely that after 3 months a number of countries began to return to at least one image of normality. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to follow what is happening in hospitals. The situation will be difficult, but I personally think things will improve by summer. I don't know for sure, but I doubt the epidemic will lose much strength by the end of June. This, in part because of the government's measures, but also in part because it's wine, and things will be relieved”- Hunter points out.

Sixth month: Returning to Normal

By September, we will begin to account for the effects of the crisis on the state budget. There are those

that can be returned to their jobs. Those laid off will face great uncertainty about the future. Those jobs, which disappeared during the crisis, are unlikely to return, which could lead to an increase in unemployment.

The answer can be a more generous social welfare system. A fundamental universal income, which was allied in Finland and Canada for producing mixed results, could be devastating to the working class. For those whose jobs survived, the way they work will change.

The offices will be reduced to personnel, and will be converted to places where they only go twice a week for some consultation, as many jobs can be done from home. But under normal remesis, the virus will be reawakened. As the summer departs, we will see a rise in the number of new cases of coronarys, which will require careful management.

There will again be jams of movement that will be implemented in various areas of Britain. On the other hand, this means that we have to create as little additional health problems as possible. The next Christmas or so, I believe there will be an apparent increase in the number of birth” - Hunter thinks.

Schools and universities will be reopened, but with fewer foreign students. Like office employees, there will be a debate among them whether students and teachers should be

In the same room. Therefore, high schools and universities may begin to consider online learning for a long period of time.

Month twelve: Endurance

Although the vaccine will not yet be ready, the medical staff will have learned to face Coddy-19 and the complications it causes. So there will be better treatment options. Meanwhile, it can change the way the government tracks the spread of the virus.

One positive element is that with travel prevention, carbon emissions in the air will drop significantly. Researchers have already observed severe declines in nitrogen dioxide emissions, while in certain parts of China, pollution levels are up to 30 percent lower than normal.

Even in northern Italy, nitrogen dioxide levels have dropped by 40 per cent. But everything else will be much less pink. We will probably still be in recession, and entire sectors of the economy will have to be radically restructured. We can see the bankruptcy of some companies that can no longer be profitable. But there will be a light at the end of the tunnel: a vaccine.

Eighteenth month: Recuperation

As a disease, the coronobius is here to stay long. But the vaccine will ease its impact. There may be major changes in world order. China will be keen to regain its old growth rate. Countries that benefited from Chinese medical aid, such as Italy, will develop closer ties with Beijing.

The US will probably finally review the effectiveness of a market-based health care system. Coronavius, will bring about a revolution of how it is lived and worked. The test for our society is how we're going to take care of those who are going to be lost while society is reorganizing. (Chris Stokel-Welker)